Ed Miliband has emerged as the runaway favourite to become the next UK Chancellor, according to the prediction market Polymarket.
Traders on the platform put the former Labour leader's chances of taking the Treasury at 65%, far ahead of any rival.
The energy secretary's odds have firmed by 20 percentage points in recent trading, leaving the rest of the field trailing.
Health secretary Wes Streeting sits a distant second at 10%, with his odds easing as Miliband's have strengthened.
Justice secretary Shabana Mahmood follows at 9%, while Pat McFadden and Yvette Cooper are level on 7%.
The contract, which has seen more than $431,000 of trading volume, resolves on whoever is officially appointed chancellor by the end of 2026.
Crucially, the market only counts a new appointment, meaning a reappointment of the incumbent, Rachel Reeves, would not trigger a payout.
The speculation reflects the imminent change at the top of government, with Andy Burnham widely seen as Keir Starmer's likely successor as prime minister.
Burnham returned to Parliament this month after winning the Makerfield by-election, days before Starmer announced his resignation and a Labour leadership contest.
He is so far the only declared candidate, having secured a wave of endorsements as potential rivals declined to stand.
A change of leader has fuelled questions over the shape of his frontbench, with the chancellorship the most closely watched job.
Reeves has publicly insisted she should stay, telling a business audience she has "unfinished business" in the Treasury and pointing to the stability she has restored.
Miliband, by contrast, is understood to have the backing of union figures pressing Burnham to break from the current economic approach.
There has also been speculation that he has lined up a senior economic role within the Treasury, even as his name circulates for the top job itself.
The market still leaves room for surprises, with a small chance priced in that no new chancellor is appointed at all this year.
For now, though, traders are betting heavily that Reeves will make way, and that Miliband is the man most likely to replace her.
