Jefferies has reiterated its buy rating on Berkeley Group Holdings PLC (LSE:BKG), arguing the housebuilder can return its entire market value to shareholders over five years.
The broker, which has a 4,531p price target implying 31% upside, said there was little new in the full-year results, with profit in line and longer-term guidance reiterated after April's strategy update.
While it expects little change to consensus profit forecasts, Jefferies sees upside to expectations for capital returns.
It noted that returns were running ahead of schedule, with £112 million of the £640 million targeted by 2030 already completed.
The broker said cash flow before shareholder returns reached £259 million in the year, after a £164 million working capital outflow.
With land creditor payments set to step down by around £140 million in the 2027 financial year, Jefferies sees scope to accelerate share buybacks further.
It also pointed to the group's build-to-rent portfolio as a source of additional capital.
With management talking about rent stabilisation on current units within 18 months, the broker believes capital could be released from these assets earlier than expected, enhancing returns ahead of schedule.
Berkeley is targeting a £2 billion total return by 2034.
On the results, Jefferies noted pre-tax profit of £451 million against guidance of £450 million, net cash of £363 million versus a £300 million guide, and net asset value per share of £39.17.
The broker said the company was no longer providing specific guidance for the 2027 financial year, with its four-year target now to be delivered broadly equally.
Jefferies noted the sales rate was moderating, down 15% on the average of the past two years, though pricing remained ahead of budget.
It added that build cost inflation pressure was picking up, while management pointed to mitigation efforts, including fixed-price contracts.
