Wes Streeting has emerged as the runaway favourite to become Britain's next chancellor of the exchequer, according to bettors on Polymarket.
The prediction market, where users wager real money on the outcome of real-world events, gives the former health secretary a 70% chance of running the Treasury before the end of 2026.
That puts him far ahead of his nearest rivals for one of the most powerful jobs in government.
Ed Miliband, the energy secretary and a former Labour leader, sits second on 14%.
Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, follows on 11%, with home secretary Shabana Mahmood on 7%.
The market has sprung to life after Keir Starmer announced on Monday that he would resign as prime minister.
His departure opens a Labour leadership contest, with a successor due to take office by 1 September at the latest.
A new prime minister is widely expected to install their own chancellor, and Rachel Reeves, the current holder, is reported to be heading for replacement.
Reeves has drawn criticism from business for presiding over rising costs across British industry during her two years in the role.
Streeting's experience in government has only been as health secretary, but his public profile and communication skills have kept him in contention.
Simon French, chief economist at broker Panmure Liberum, said Streeting is a "relatively market-friendly option" because of his pro-growth comments, but also a political risk because he might someday want to be prime minister.
Barclays' Jack Meaning said the market "appears to be more nervous that a Milliband chancellorship would increase the risk of extra borrowing, we view the others as equally fiscally pragmatic as each other, with the big open question being around the degree of adherence to the current fiscal rules".
Streeting resigned from the cabinet last month and this week backed Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, to be the next Labour leader.
Burnham returned to parliament on Monday after winning the Makerfield by-election, positioning himself as the main challenger to succeed Starmer.
Investors are watching the contest closely for any signal of a shift in economic policy.
The choice of chancellor will indicate whether the next government leans towards continuity or a more adventurous approach to the public finances.
That question matters for the bond market, where traders quickly punish any hint of looser spending.
Burnham unsettled investors last year when he said Britain should stop being "in hock to the bond market", remarks that sparked a sell-off in government debt.
The backdrop is fragile, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting UK growth of just 0.8% this year.
More than $86,000 has been staked on the chancellor market so far.
Whoever lands the job will inherit the task of reviving growth while staying within tight fiscal limits.
