Traders on Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market, are betting that Anthropic's suspended Claude Fable 5 model will stay offline for US customers well into the summer.
The standout figure is not the headline number but how far traders have pushed their expectations out.
The market gives just a 6% chance that access is restored today, and even by 1 July, almost three weeks after the ban, the implied probability sits at only 59%.
That leaves a 41% chance the model remains unavailable into July, hardly the picture of a quick resolution.
The near-term contracts have collapsed in recent trading.
The odds of restoration by 19 June fell 23%, while bets on 26 June dropped 31%, with money instead flowing into later dates.
Only the 1 July contract rose, up 13%, confirming that traders see the standoff dragging on rather than ending imminently.
The market has turned over $541,776 in volume.
The bets follow an abrupt intervention by Washington.
On 12 June, the US government issued an export control directive ordering Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 and its more powerful sibling, Mythos 5, for all foreign nationals, citing national security.
To comply, Anthropic disabled both models for every customer worldwide, though its other models, including Opus 4.8, were unaffected.
The government's concern centres on a claimed method of bypassing, or jailbreaking, Fable 5's safety controls to surface software vulnerabilities.
Anthropic has complied with the order but publicly disagreed, arguing the technique is narrow, already known, and present in rival models.
The company says it is working to restore access as quickly as possible, but has set no timeline.
That uncertainty is precisely what the prediction market is pricing.
With no firm return date and a legal dispute that could run for weeks, traders appear unwilling to bet on a swift climbdown by either side.
The episode has also landed at an awkward moment, coming shortly after Anthropic confidentially filed for a stock market listing.
Regulatory risk has now become part of the company's flotation story, sharpening the stakes around how and when the dispute is resolved.
