- FTSE 100 down 17 points at 10,582
- Oil prices climb after US-Iran talks break down
- US blockade on Strait of Hormuz to begin later
5.30pm: Oil gains as peace talks break down
Global stocks pulled back on Monday, with the FTSE 100 closing down 17 points at 10,582, while oil climbed on the news that Iran and the US have walked away from peace talks.
"Stocks mostly pull back as the escalation in the Middle East conflict lifts oil prices above $100 per barrel and maintains risks of stagflation", IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp said.
4.14pm: Stagflation risk
Rising oil prices following US plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz have raised the risk of stagflation in the UK, according to economist Thomas Pugh at RSM UK.
The naval blockade means "it's looking inevitable that the UK is in for another bout of stagflation, even if inflation won’t go as high as in 2023", he says.
Higher energy costs could push inflation back above 3%, Pugh says, while squeezing consumer incomes and business margins, with diesel prices now topping £2 a litre.
Pugh said the shock from high oil prices over much longer could “tip the UK into recession”, if it results in the Bank of England raising borrowing costs, and this adds to pressure on consumer confidence and weighs on growth.
"The good news," he says, "is that the UK economy can cope with energy prices at current levels. Given inflation and energy efficiency improvements, oil prices of near $100pb aren’t nearly as damaging as they were even before the pandemic."
Furthermore, he says the BoE "can probably hold fire on interest rate rises if it becomes clear that energy flows are resuming and prices should fall back", but not if there is no sunlight visible on the other side of the storm.
Over to the US, Iran and Benjamin Netanyahu.
3.51pm: FTSE cuts losses
The FTSE has cut its losses to within 20 points by late afternoon, as oil companies are joined by heavyweights from other sectors.
Defence companies and some blue-chips grouped together as 'AI risks' are providing a boost, with BAE Systems, Babcock and Rolls among the top risers.
Insurer Admiral gained over 2.5%, while Sage, London Stock Exchange Group, RELX and Experian plc are also performing strongly.
Shell and BP are joined by copper miners Anglo American and Antofagasta as the price of the metal spikes.
At the other end, airlines are not longer the biggest fallers, with AB Foods (on an analyst downgrade) top of the bottom, so to speak.
Precious metals miners and utilities are the most dominant sectors among fallers, with United Utilities, Fresnillo, Severn Trent, National Grid and Endeavour Mining all down 2.4% to 1.6%.
Utilities are down are bond yields are rising, while the same forces were lifting the dollar, pressing down on the gold price, which is down 1%, with silver down 2.4%.
3.09pm: US blockade begins
The US maritime blockade of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz has begun.
It has been confirmed by the UK Maritime Trade Operations in an advisory notice to all ships and owners.
"UKMTO have been informed that, effective from 1400 UTC on 13 April 2026, maritime access restrictions are being enforced affecting Iranian ports and coastal areas, including locations along the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz.
"These access restrictions apply without distinction to vessels of any flag engaging with Iranian ports, oil terminals, or coastal facilities.
"UKMTO understands that formal details of these measures, including enforcement provisions and exemptions, will be promulgated and updated through official Notice to Mariners (NTM)."
It said the restrictions encompass "the entirety of the Iranian coastline, including ports and energy infrastructure".
Transit through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations is "not reported to be impeded" by the US measures, though vessels "may encounter military presence, directed communications, or right-of-visit procedures" during passage.
Neutral vessels currently within Iranian ports "have been granted a limited grace period to depart".
UKMTO ADVISORY 035-26
Click here to read the full advisory⤵️https://t.co/j41t1C0Hfb#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec pic.twitter.com/wxUnNCXSaV
— UKMTO Operations Centre (@UK_MTO) April 13, 2026
2.40pm: Dow Jones leads fallers as Goldman slides
Wall Street has opened in the red, as expected, with the Dow Jones leading the way, down 0.7%.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both down nearer 0.3% in opening trades.
At the front of the fallers on the Dow is Goldman Sachs, down 4% despite earnings beating consensus forecasts.
Next are Sherwin-Williams, Nvidia, Home Depot and JPMorgan Chase, all down less than 1.4%.
1.40pm: Notes on ABF, WH Smith, Glencore and Fresnillo
Some broker notes of interest today.
Primark is losing its edge, according to analysts at RBC Capital Markets, who have downgraded parent Associated British Foods as a result.
They see the fast-fashion chain facing slowing sales, margin pressure and rising competition from the likes of Shein, with its value positioning under threat from online rivals and a shift to digital, while group earnings growth is expected to remain muted.
RB has also cooled on WH Smith, downgrading to the same 'sector perform' rating and trimming its price target, with analysts arguing the travel retailer now looks "fairly valued" as pressure builds on its UK and Rest of World businesses.
The Canadian bank's analysts also cut FY26 and FY27 profit forecasts by 3-4%, leaving its new FY26 underlying pre-tax profit estimate at £98.5mln, just below the bottom end of WH Smith’s £100mln to £115mln guidance range.
Citi, meanwhile, has raised its price targets for Glencore and Fresnillo heading into the first-quarter production reporting season, while warning that copper recovery and iron ore shipment volumes are likely to disappoint in the near term.
Antofagasta kicks off the Q1 results season on Wednesday.
Elsewhere, Whitbread is seen as relatively well positioned in the UK hotel market, though competition is increasing, according to UBS.
The bank said the Premier Inn chain continues to have the lowest level of nearby branded rivals, with an average of 4.6 competitors within a 10-minute drive, but this has risen 6.4% year on year, highlighting a gradual increase in competitive intensity.
1.09pm: Conviction calls
US stock index futures have trimmed some of their sharp earlier losses.
"The fragile ceasefire which was announced late last Tuesday appears to be holding despite accusations of abuses by both sides," says market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation.
US Central Command has confirmed it will begin blocking maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports at 10 am ET today (3pm GMT), adding that vessels travelling to non-Iranian ports would not be impeded.
Says Morrison, "As far as financial markets are concerned, reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains the key requirement for reigniting a sustainable rally across risk assets."
He perceives "a conviction, rightly or wrongly, that the war will end relatively soon", with "no expectation that this will go on beyond the summer, and the Brent crude forwards show a sharp backwardation suggesting a significant pullback in oil prices by year-end".
On prediction markets, hopes are not high. Traders on Polymarket are pricing only a 39% likihood of a permanent peace deal before 30 June. Chances of a permanent peace agreement this week are at just 8%, or a meagre 13% by the end of April, and still just 31% by the end of May.
12.40am: Goldman beats profit record
US futures are pointing moderately lower, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all down around 0.5%.
Goldman Sachs has reported a second quarterly record in a row, as the war in Iran fueled market volatility and led to stronger trading.
Net revenues came in at $17.23 billion and net earnings at $5.63 billion for the first quarter of the year, with diluted earnings per common share of $17.55.
The investment bank’s equities arm generated revenue of $5.3 billion, beating the previous record of $4.31 billion set at the end of last year.
CEO David Solomon says: "We delivered a very strong performance for our shareholders this quarter, even as market conditions became more volatile.
"Our clients continue to depend on us for high quality execution and insights amid the broader uncertainty, and we remain confident in how we’ve positioned our businesses.
"The geopolitical landscape remains very complex – so disciplined risk management must remain core to how we operate."
11.47am: Talks to continue
Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators will continue talks with the US and Iran in the coming days, according to Axios.
The discussions will see efforts made to "bridge the gaps" in the negotiations to reach a deal to end the war, according to sources that included a US official and one in the Gulf.
"All parties still believe a deal is possible," the report says, with international mediators hoping that "narrowing the gaps could enable another round of negotiations" before the ceasefire expires in a week's time, 21 April.
Another report says that Washington is amenable to releasing a certain portion of the frozen funds and to end the war.
In return, they demanded a 20‑year freeze on nuclear enrichment, the removal of enriched material from Iran, and free navigation in Hormuz without tax payments.
The Iranians discussed the nuclear issue contrary to instructions from Tehran, but the gaps were "enormous", according to Israel's N12 News.
Direct talks between Israel and Lebanon will begin on Tuesday, for the first time in 43 years, in the US.
11.17am: UK to fast-track faster adoption of EU food and auto sector rules
The UK government is preparing legislation to deepen trade ties with the EU, with ministers arguing the move could add billions to the economy and cut costs for businesses, according to a story in the Guardian.
The proposed “dynamic alignment” powers would allow faster adoption of EU rules in areas such as food, automotive and emissions, reducing friction at the border and easing trade flows.
Officials told the newspaper that this could help offset economic strains from the Iran conflict and address Brexit-related drag on productivity and trade.
However, the approach faces political resistance, with concerns over reduced parliamentary scrutiny, as the new legislation could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
The use of so-called 'Henry VIII' powers means ministers could push through regulatory changes quickly, giving businesses faster access to EU markets and reducing compliance delays.
But it also raises some uncertainty, as rules could shift with limited scrutiny, as Westminster can either approve or reject secondary legislation, but cannot amend it.
10.50am: RS hit by downgrade
Shares in RS Group (LSE: RS1), the industrial electronics and maintenance products distributor, fell almost 3% after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock from 'buy' to 'hold' and cut its price target from 800p to 700p.
Analyst David Brockton says his previous 'buy' thesis, initiated last November, had rested on expectations of a recovery in like-for-like revenue after roughly three years of decline.
However, last month's pre-close update disappointed on second-half LFL growth, due to regional weakness in Mexico and creating a slower revenue run-rate heading into the new financial year.
10.20am: Oil flows in focus
Brent crude has climbed above $102.60 a barrel in the past half hour.
A quick improvement in oil and gas flows via the Strait of Hormuz seems "less likely", says UBS analyst Henri Patricot this morning, "as the uncertainty extends further and the oil shortfall could even increase further in the near-term, in our view".
He and his colleagues currently estimate that the oil shortfall is close to 12 million barrels per day (Mb/d).
Nearly 2Mb/d of the flows are Iranian exports, which have continued close to normal levels since the start of the conflict, "but could turn lower".
Patricot says any disruption to Iranian flows, such as from a US blockade, "could in turn raise the risks around the Saudi and UAE bypass routes, which add up to more than 5Mb/d".
On a positive note, he notes that the Saudi Ministry of Energy said on Sunday that the 7Mb/d East-West pipeline, which had lost 10% of its capacity in an attack last week, is already back at full capacity, and around 300,000 b/d of lost production capacity has also been restored, out of 600,000 b/d impacted.
9.53am: Hormuz blockade - Iran and China object
Iran has criticised the planned US blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran has warned of a "harsh response" and accused Israel of derailing progress of the talks via a last-minute intervention by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Iran's foreign minister said a phone call between Netanyahu and US Vice President JD Vance during the talks shifted the focus to Israeli interests.
Tehran has warned that any military vessels approaching the strait “under any pretext” would be treated as a ceasefire violation.
Iran's armed forces have said in a statement this morning that ports in the Arabian Gulf and the Sea of Oman are “either for everyone or for no one”.
State broadcaster IRIB reported a statement that the US’s "imposition of restrictions on the movement of vessels in international waters is an illegal act and amounts to piracy".
If the security of the ports is threatened, no port in the region “will be safe,” the statement said.
The UK said it will not participate in the proposed blockade.
Israel has continued heavy airstrikes across southern Lebanon, saying it is targeting Hezbollah positions.
Netanyahu said Israel would open direct talks with the Lebanese government on disarming Hezbollah, but added: “We want the dismantling of Hezbollah’s weapons, and we want a real peace agreement that will last for generations.”
China has urged all parties to "demonstrate sincerity" towards ceasefire proposals, cautioned the UN Security Council against further escalation and warned that the Hormuz blockade threatens global trade.
Whereas attacking ships in the Strait that haven’t paid a toll or mining international waters is all fine and dandy? Piracy is very much in the eye of the beholder. www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...
— Duncan Weldon (@duncanweldon.bsky.social) April 13, 2026 at 9:13 AM
9.11am: Housebuilders down, Vistry down most
After an hour of trading, the FTSE has trimmed its losses, down 39 points to 10,561.
Losses for the mid-cap FTSE 250 are deepening, though, now down 144 points or 0.65% to 22,207.
Housebuilders are one of the sectors hit whenever the oil price jumps, as it raises worries about inflation and therefore interest rates and consumer confidence.
Vistry is the biggest faller among the FTSE 350 builders, after the group announced that Adam Daniels, currently executive chair of one of the group’s two large operating divisions, is stepping up to become CEO with immediate effect.
It's his first time on the board and his first role as a group CEO.
Here's analyst Clyde Lewis at house broker Peel Hunt: "The group has not said anything about current trading, but the new CEO reiterated the group’s focus on improving cash generation, increasing open-market sales, and reducing inventory levels. We suspect market conditions have been tricky following the onset of the war in the Gulf."
8.37am: Pretty 'mild' moves as talks expected to continue
Brent crude is continuing to hover just below $102 a barrel after the US threatened to blockade all vessels in the Strait of Hormuz from 3pm London time (10am US Eastern Time) today, following the breakdown of peace talks with Iran.
The losses for stock markets have been "mild so far", says market analyst Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.
In London, the FTSE is down 0.44%, in Frankfurt the DAX is down a more hefty 1%, while the pan-European Euro Stoxx 600 is down 0.7%.
"Although oil prices have jumped back above the $100 level, the fact that they have not returned to pre-ceasefire highs above $111 per barrel for Brent, has tempered the sell off in risky assets at the start of this week," says Brooks.
She points out that the talks between Iran and the US at the weekend were "not a single event, but should be viewed as a process, and there are hopes that more talks will continue".
Figures from the Iranian regime have hinted that this is the case.
While President Trump is threatening a Hormuz blockade, he is "notorious for changing his mind and switching positions, so his threats are losing market impact", she says.
While there is plenty of geopolitics to dominate the market mood, as well as the defeat of Viktor Orban in Hungary, there is still plenty of financial fundamentals to keep traders busy too.
Brooks flags earnings season moving up a gear with US banks and Netflix the highlights of the week, plus the IMF spring meeting that will come with its latest global growth forecasts.
There will be 27 S&P 500 companies announcing their results over the week, including Goldman Sachs today; then JP Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo on Tuesday; before Morgan Stanley and Bank of America round off the major US banks on Wednesday; and Netflix begins tech earnings season on Thursday.
As for the UK, monthly GDP is reported on Thursday, with company results including Imperial Brands, Oxford Instruments and PageGroup tomorrow; Antofagasta, Barratt Redrow, Hunting and Rank Group on Wednesday; Ashmore, Dunelm, Ninety One, Rentokil Initial, Schroders and Tesco on Thursday.
8.15am: Airlines, builders and gold miners lead FTSE lower at open
The FTSE 100 has started the week by falling 61 points to just below 10,540.
You know the drill by now: shares in airlines, housebuilders, precious metals miners, retailers and some financial groups are the worst affected.
British Airways parent IAG (LSE:IAG) is leading the fallers, down 2.5%, followed by Primark owner AB Foods, down 2.3%, with miner Fresnillo down 2.3% and builder Barratt Redrow down 2%.
Standard Chartered, Entain, Burberry, Persimmon, and Rolls-Royce are not far behind.
At the other end, BP PLC (LSE:BP.) and Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL) are near the top of the risers, up around 1.2%.
7.58am: Vistry promotes regional boss to group CEO
Housebuilder Vistry Group PLC (LSE:VTY) has appointed Adam Daniels as chief executive with immediate effect, after executive chairman Greg Fitzgerald handed in his notice last month.
The FTSE 250-listed group said Daniels is currently executive chair of one of its two largest regional divisions, and will be joining the board as an executive director for the first time.
It means that Fitzgerald will step down sooner than expected, though he will assist with the transition.
7.42am: Nat Grid flags 1p hit to earnings
National Grid PLC (LSE:NG.) has flagged a small hit to expected earnings per share for the year to March 2026, with trading mostly in line with expectations.
In a short update, the FTSE 100-listed electricity and gas network operator said performance was consistent with guidance given at its half-year results.
However, it now expects a net impact of around 1p on underlying EPS, reflecting customer refund charges linked to a 19 March 2026 ruling by US regulator FERC on its New England transmission business, alongside higher than expected storm costs in its US operations.
7.29am: UK jobs market proves solid
UK hiring showed signs of stabilising in March, according to the latest survey from KPMG and REC, which found permanent placements falling only marginally and temporary billings declining at a slower pace.
Demand for staff continued to weaken but at the slowest rate in ten months, while rising candidate availability helped cool pay growth, with starting salaries and temp wages increasing only slightly.
Recruiters said uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict and higher costs are still weighing on hiring, though some employers have resumed previously delayed recruitment plans.
Neil Carberry, REC chief executive, said: “The Gulf conflict provided a headwind to hiring in March, but this did not stop the trend of stabilisation that has defined 2026 so far.
"The effects of a longer-run crisis are unclear, but the resilience of the jobs market last month was heartening."
7.16am: FTSE 100 set to fall on Monday as Iran talks break down
The FTSE 100 is expected to start the week lower, but not as bad as some other European markets, as oil prices bounce back above $100 after talks between US and Iran broke down.
Donald Trump posted overnight that the 20-hour meeting "went well" on most points but there was one major sticking point: "Iran is unwilling to give up its nuclear ambitions".
The price of Brent crude oil jumped 7% to just under $102 a barrel, while gold, silver and copper prices have dropped.
London's blue-chip share index has been called 62 points lower on the futures market, while Germany's DAX is predicted to fall over 350 points.
Stocks are down in Asia but not too dramatically, with Japan's Nikkei falling 0.8% and India's Sensex losing 1.3%. US futures are in the red too, with falls of 0.6-0.7%.
Market analyst Kyle Rodda at Capital.com says "the ceasefire is all but over", with the US now threatening its own blockade of oil coming out of the Persian Gulf, "in a move designed to shift the leverage in the conflict and set the stage for military force to destroy the Iranian blockade."
For market participants, he says this means: "Oil up, with all the typical correlations falling behind that: stocks down, gold down, yields up, dollar up."