Citi has raised its price targets for Glencore and Fresnillo heading into the first-quarter production reporting season, while warning that copper recovery and iron ore shipment volumes are likely to disappoint in the near term.
The Wall Street bank lifted its target price for Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN) to £6.70 and for Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES), the silver and gold miner, to £50, retaining buy ratings on both stocks.
Antofagasta PLC (LSE:ANTO), the Chilean copper producer, kicks off the Q1 results season on 15 April.
Citi said its expectations heading into the operational updates were modest, with iron ore production at BHP and Rio Tinto likely to remain subdued due to the seasonal slowdown in Australian shipments during the first quarter.
On copper, the bank said it expected an annual recovery to be weighted toward the second half of 2026, with lower mining grades and scheduled maintenance activity expected to keep first-quarter output broadly flat compared with the final quarter of 2025.
Copper unit costs could nevertheless hold up, Citi said, supported by higher byproduct credits, which are revenues generated from metals extracted alongside the primary ore.
The bank forecast flat gold and silver production at Fresnillo quarter on quarter.
Citi said it had updated its financial models to reflect the latest commodity price assumptions, with higher energy prices and an upward revision to gold price forecasts acting as the primary drivers of the target price changes.