Informa PLC (LSE:INF), the FTSE 100 events and academic publishing group, sought to reassure investors on Wednesday that its 2026 targets remain intact despite disruption caused by the Middle East conflict, as it published full-year results broadly in line with expectations.
The shares hit an all-time high of 1,000 pence in early November but have since fallen almost a quarter, with the sharpest drop coming after the outbreak of Middle East conflict as investors fretted over the company's significant regional exposure – around a third of Informa's live events business is linked to the area, equivalent to roughly a quarter of group revenues.
Adjusted earnings per share came in at 55.6 pence, a fraction ahead of the 55.5 pence guidance issued in January, while the company increased its share buyback programme from £200 million to £250 million, citing improved revenue visibility which has grown from £1.5 billion to over £2 billion.
Full-year guidance was unchanged, with the group targeting underlying revenue growth of around 6%, events growth of 7% or more, and double-digit underlying earnings growth.
"The real question is around the Middle East," said analyst Johnathan Barrett at Panmure Liberum.
Informa's business in the Middle East, India and Africa generated around $250 million of revenue in January and February alone, but the onset of conflict has caused travel disruption in directly affected areas.
The company said around 40% of IMEA revenue for the full year has either already been earned or relates to events in unaffected locations, and that all remaining events have been rescheduled or have confirmed options to run in the final four months of the year.
Barrett said Informa "knows how to handle this scenario" and does not expect the company to face significant further decisions on key events until July or August, given that revenue is heavily weighted towards the year's end.
Last week, JP Morgan ran a detailed scenario analysis concluding that even a worst-case outcome in which every IMEA event from April through December is cancelled would reduce forecast earnings by around 10% and push the valuation to 11.5 times 2026 earnings.
That, the bank said, leaves the investment case intact; the bank described such an outcome as unlikely, noting its own geopolitical strategists expected the conflict to last two to four weeks.
The shares were down 1% to 771.4p by late morning on Thursday.
The stock has fallen around 7% since the conflict began and trades on roughly 13.5 times 2026 forecast earnings – a notable discount to peers RELX, on 18.3 times, and Experian, on 19.4 times – suggesting room to recover if the situation stabilises.