JP Morgan has run a detailed scenario analysis on Informa PLC's (LSE:INF) exposure to the Middle East, concluding that even a severe deterioration in the region would leave the investment case intact, as the events group prepares to report full-year 2025 results on Thursday.
The bank's analysts leave estimates unchanged and expect management to reaffirm all FY26 guidance metrics, while acknowledging the tone on the Middle East and North Africa region is likely to be cautious.
The region accounts for around 13% of Informa's group revenue and roughly 21% of its live business-to-business events business, making it a meaningful but not dominant exposure.
In a worst-case scenario in which every IMEA event from April through December is cancelled, JPM calculates that FY26 adjusted EBITDA would fall by around 10%, pushing the stock's valuation to 11.5 times that year's earnings, compared with 10.4 times today.
The bank describes this outcome as unlikely, noting that its own geopolitical strategists model the current conflict lasting two to four weeks.
JPM points to Informa's track record through previous crises as additional reassurance, with past peak-to-trough share price contractions averaging 31% and trough valuations of around 9.5 times earnings, both of which imply the stock has historically recovered and re-rated once disruption passed.
The longer-term case rests on revenue growing at a compound annual rate of 7% through to 2030 and net debt falling to 1.1 times EBITDA by FY27.
The shares were down 2.5% at 775.6p.