Traditions are a core part of the Christmas experience and, for this Proactive Investors journalist, one of these is the annual stock-picking competition.
A year ago, we laid out 17 offerings under our figurative tree, and now we look back at that seasonal snapshot and, in line with a tradition more associated with Festivus, see whose feats of investing strength won out.
First, a friendly reminder that these top tips are all about giving rather than receiving – a seasonal punt, offered in good faith, with the full knowledge that markets have a habit of laughing at even the best-laid plans.
With that in mind, it is time to unwrap the results and see who delivered festive cheer, who ran it very close, and who may prefer to quietly recycle the wrapping paper and move on.
Chip star on top of the tree
Finally, we have a first new winner in three years, with Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC) top of the tree in this year’s festive selection, making Danni Hewson of AJ Bell our 2025 champion.
At the time she made the tip this time last year, Danni said she saw Intel as a rebound story, after a couple of years that were “stinkers” for the company, with the expectation that a new chief executive would have plenty to work with to turn this big tech ship around.
March saw the appointment of experienced chip-man Lip Bu Tan as chief executive, who focused on stabilising the company through layoffs and narrowing the product focus, before things took off in autumn with a game-changer Nvidia deal and a succession of AI server and PC product launches, as well as reports of further dealmaking.
Shares in the chipmaker had surged around 120% by the start of December and ended the year with a gain of 81% by the time of Friday's cut-off date, giving Danni top spot just as the chasing pack were closing in.
Wise men and women
It was an extremely close-run thing, with several of the tips proving to be valuable Xmas gifts.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya of Swissquote Bank, in her first year in the competition, was in first place in September and October with her tip of the Global X Uranium ETF, up over 132% at one stage before ebbing away in the final few weeks of the year but still hanging onto bronze position.
The top four were neck and neck in the final run-in, with two steady climbers from the FTSE 100 over the whole year almost bagging top spot.
These were Prudential PLC (LSE:PRU), which bagged the silver medal spot for Richard Hunter of Interactive Investor (receiving a last-minute invitation to replace a colleague on maternity leave), and Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LSE:LLOY) for blogger Dan from Financial Wilderness, who watched the shares rise 76% to snap at the heels of the leaders.
A year ago, when she tipped uranium, Ipek expected a good performance as demand for the nuclear-linked metal grows on the back of the AI data centre boom, which has led to a surge in investment in nuclear power projects around the world.
Richard, who stepped in for a colleague on maternity leave, picked Prudential as a recovery stock after it had fallen 48% over the prior three years, but with strong prospects from targeting high-growth markets in Asia and Africa.
Wilderness Dan, meanwhile, selected Lloyds as having unfairly lagged peers owing to motor finance worries being “a smaller risk for banks than imagined”, alongside expectations that rates would fall slowly.
This result for Dan comes after a sixth-placed finish the previous year and third place the year before that.
Beating benchmarks
Another newcomer finished in the top five, with Kathleen Brooks of XTB going with one of the OG Christmas picks of gold. The yellow metal’s spot price rose 65% from just over US$2,600 per ounce to hit a number of record highs, reaching US$4,338 by the cut-off date (and hitting a new high this morning).
She said she expected gold’s role as the safe haven of choice in 2024 to continue, boosted by ETF demand and allied with elevated geopolitical risk.
Not far behind, with a 50% gain (and more than 70% in early October), was Chris Beauchamp of IG in sixth place with a tip of BAE Systems PLC (LSE:BA.). This gain was almost double that of his bet from the previous year, when he bagged the bronze medal.
BAE continued what Chris described as a “stonking run since 2020”, which he felt was likely to continue due to further anticipated rises in global defence spending.
Three more tipsters also comfortably beat the FTSE 100’s 22% gain for the year and the Nikkei’s 28% rise (also the Nasdaq at around 19% and DAX at 22%).
Sam North of eToro’s pick of Snowflake Inc (NYSE:SNOW) was up 43.1% – and almost 80% early last month, when it briefly sat in third place – as the data platform benefited from being part of the wider AI-related story.
Casey's General Stores Inc (NASDAQ:CASY), picked by Dan Lane of Robinhood UK, also gained 38%, with his choice of “probably the biggest convenience store chain you’ve never heard of” delivering solid earnings through the year.
Another benchmark-beater was Hiscox Ltd (LSE:HSX) for Peter Higgins of the Twin Petes Podcast, up 32% as the market cottoned on to a share he described as “undervalued and underappreciated”.
Mid-table respectability
There were some other very respectable performances that most investors would not turn their noses up at, especially over just a one-year period.
WS Raynar UK Smaller Companies, selected by Darius McDermott of Chelsea FS, rose 15.7%.
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (NYSE:TMO) delivered a 9.3% gain for Alex Campbell of Freetrade, while the Macquarie Global Real Assets Fund added 7.6% for Peter Sleep of Callanish.
Sterling edged higher too, giving 2024 and 2023 competition winner Billy Farrington’s GBP/USD pick a gain of almost 7%, which was better than you'd get in a cash savings account.
Concerns from Dan Caps of Evelyn Partners that the US market is becoming over-concentrated are still shared by many investors, with Legal & General’s S&P 500 US Equal Weight Index gaining 5.2%.
Christmas gifts to forget – for now
Bottom of the table, we have our equivalents of the unwanted gift like a musical socks, a naff Xmas jumper or a self-help book.
The weakest performer was The Honest Company (NASDAQ:HNST), down 60.0% for Vince Stanzione, who was candid when asked about the result.
“My 2025 pick unfortunately bombed,” he said, though he pointed out that his recommendation from 2024 – in which he holds a substantial position – is now up 177%.
Vince said he had thought the natural baby-care, beauty and household products brand might attract a takeover by a major player such as Procter & Gamble, “but no bid materialised and earnings have remained weak, with profitability still marginal”.
As a small-cap stock, he notes that it “is highly sensitive to sentiment”, but he continues to hold “in the hope that 2026 proves more favourable”.
A similar approach is being taken by investment writer John Kingham after Victrex PLC (LSE:VCT) fell 39.4%.
John remains philosophical about the outcome, saying he chose the polymer specialist “because there was a disconnect between its internal positivity and its 7% dividend yield. Nothing has changed since then (except the yield is now 9%) so I'll be backing Victrex once again”.
Next worst was my own pick, Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO), down 43.4%, while Facilities by ADF PLC (AIM:ADF) dropped 54.7% for Andrew Hore of AIM Journal.
After finishing second in 2024, my tip on the weight-loss drug maker struggled after clinical results for a new and improved product were solid but not as good as expected. Novo has since been overtaken by rivals and seen its shares plunge by around two thirds from their highs the previous year – and if I’d been holding the shares in real life, I would have sold a while ago.
The next round of Xmas picks for 2026 will be coming soon – keep your eyes peeled.