Looking back, picking the best investment for the year ahead often seems so obvious in retrospect – this past year our friendly tips competition was won at a canter by Bitcoin and the year before it was Nvidia that finished well ahead of everyone else.
Easy choices surely?! Well, maybe but only one of our contestants plumped for those picks.
Sometimes, the best stock pick is not everyone's obvious choice. For example, three years ago our winner was an ETF that allowed investors to short Cathie Wood's ARK fund, and the year before that it was a small-cap biotech tip that romped home to victory.
For 2025, Christmas Tips becomes New Year tips due to some pre-Xmas flu.
But the format remains the same, as we have asked 17 traders, market analysts, financial commentators, bloggers, podcasters and other assorted market watchers to take a punt on what will do best over the coming 12 months.
I give a very hearty thanks to all of them for putting their head above the parapet for this friendly competition, where the choices for 2025 include a trio of FTSE 100 shares, another handful of US big cap names, a mid-cap from either side of the pond, plus various ETFs and mutual funds, plus one commodity pick and one currency pair.
This year we'll not go alphabetic but in order of when they sent their tips in to me. Good luck everyone!
The Honest Company (NASDAQ:HNST) – Vince Stanzione, trader, trainer and writer of the Millionaire Dropout
First into the inbox was long-time tips contributor Vince, who came second in 2021 and was just out of the medal places in the past two years.
His pick for 2025 is The Honest Company (NASDAQ:HNST), a maker of non-toxic and natural beauty, baby care and cleaning products, founded in 2012 by actress Jessica Alba and other investors.
In explaining his choice Vince notes that the company refuse to use over 3,500 ingredients, including not using parabens, sulphates or phthalates in their products, which are sold online via Amazon and via major retailers such as Wholefoods.
"It floated in the US in 2021 at $16 a share but has had a rough ride with shares falling down to less than $1 at the start of 2024. The company has started a turnaround with better earnings and a new leadership team and is now trading nearer $8 a share, however I believe we can see shares get back to the $16 plus level in 2025 giving a nice potential upside for those that buy now.
"The company could also become a takeover target in 2025 as a larger player buys them out. Even after the recent share price increase the market cap is only $800 million which makes it a small cap company."
Hiscox Ltd (LSE:HSX) – Peter Higgins, podcaster at the Twin Petes Investing and Investing Matters podcasts
Peter, perhaps better known on social media as Conkers3, who came second in 2022 but suffered from unfortunate timing in the past year's contest.
He's gone for Hiscox, the Bermuda-based diversified international insurance company, this time, which is a holding company for subsidiaries involved in the business of insurance and reinsurance around the world.
"The firm looks undervalued and underappreciated given its p/e is 7.9x, yield 3%, return on equity 24%, profit margin 19.9%, its quality of global business segments and its growing opportunity to provide insurance policies to US small business owners that are underinsured," he explains.
"I view HSX currently priced at £10.50 as unloved due to poor share price performance over the past 5 years. If this company can increase its online/digital revenue streams and group profitability, then it could be re-rated. Otherwise, I suspect it could inevitably be another victim of an overseas takeover by an unwanted predator."
Global X Uranium ETF (LON:URNU) – Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst Swissquote Bank
Ipek, a first-time contestant but long-time contributor to our market reports, has gone for the Global X Uranium ETF as her debut entry.
"I think that all the AI projects (and cryptos) should be fed an increasing amount of energy. And nuclear power – of which uranium is the key fuel – while still controversial, has started making itself a place among the Big Tech as the only viable and reasonable option for powering our ambitions," she rationalises.
Indeed, Google, Amazon and Meta Platforms have all been going nuclear in the past year, with some seeing a "tipping point" for new nuclear energy designs.
Facilities by ADF PLC (AIM:ADF) – Andrew Hore, editor of AIM Journal
Andrew, our winner from 2021, has tipped film vehicles and services provider Facilities by ADF for 2025.
"It was hit by the Hollywood writers’ strike that stopped the production of international filming in the UK and productions have not ramped up as quickly as expected after the strike, and projects have been cancelled," he says.
"The outlook for the UK film sector remains positive, thanks to tax incentives and the expense of filming in California. The boom days of streaming services are behind them, but they still need a supply of new programmes. Facilities by ADF can bounce back once utilisation levels of vehicles and equipment improve. The profit will be modest this year, but if the 2025 forecast of £7.9m can be achieved, helped by the acquisition of Autotrak Portable Roadways, the 2025 prospective multiple at 33.75p is six.
"Activist investor Rockwood Strategic recently increased its stake in Facilities by ADF to 4.4% and related Harwood entities hold a further 7.6%. Chief executive Marsden Proctor has bought 79,947 shares at 31.6p each. Rockwood Strategic sees potential for the share price to bounce back and it is likely to intervene if the performance does not improve. Buy for recovery."
BAE Systems PLC (LSE:BA.) – Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG
Chris, who was second this year, goes for BAE Systems for 2025, noting that it has recently secured significant contracts and undertaken strategic initiatives, reinforcing its position in the global defence industry.
"Notably, the company signed agreements worth approximately $2.5 billion with Sweden and Denmark to supply a total of 165 CV90 combat vehicles, with provisions for additional units to support Ukraine, on top of UK and other international contract such a £3.95 billion contract to develop a new generation of submarines as part of the AUKUS defence pact.
"It is expanding its technological capabilities through the acquisition of Malloy Aeronautics, a British drone manufacturer specialising in heavy lift unmanned aerial vehicles, to enhance its autonomous systems portfolio. The company’s shares have had a stonking run since 2020 but have come under some pressure lately. But with global defence set to rise, the outlook still seems promising."
Gold – Kathleen Brooks, head of research at XTB
Another newcomer but frequent contributor of excellent insights over the years, will Kathleen prove she is a wise woman as she goes for the festive choice of gold, one of the three wise men's gifts for the son of Mary and Joseph?
"It is benefitting from ETF demand, and it was the safe haven of choice in 2024, eclipsing safe haven currencies like the dollar and the yen, and we expect this to continue," Kathleen says.
"Added to this, political risk has changed dramatically in 2025. It is no longer only about election risks, instead it has been replaced by tariffs and trade wars, civil unrest, a frustrated electorate and continuing geopolitical tensions. This enhances the attractiveness of gold, which will continue to be a top performer in 2025, in our view."
For those wanting a proxy for directly holding gold, Kathleen says she would buy an ETF, "something like SPDR Gold Trust".
Prudential PLC (LSE:PRU) – Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor
Richard steps in for colleague Victoria who is on maternity leave.
He gave a very detailed explanation of why he is picking Prudential, which targets Asia and Africa's high-growth markets, addressing a $1 trillion opportunity by 2033.
In Richard's final words: "Unfortunately the economic clouds which have hung over the likes of China more recently have had a detrimental effect on the share price for Prudential, if not for its long term prospects. The scope for recovery is clear - the shares have fallen by 26% over the last year, as compared to a rise of 10% for the wider FTSE100 and have now dropped by some 48% over the last three years in a painful reminder of the ground which needs to be recovered.
"However, given its focus and the clear opportunities in the areas where it operates, the market consensus of Prudential not only as a buy, but also as a core portfolio constituent, is likely to continue."
Victrex PLC (LSE:VCT) – John Kingham, journalist and publisher of UKDividendStocks.com
John, whose pick for last year was unluckily hit by a regulatory crackdown, says: "This year I'm going with Victrex, the world's leading producer of PEEK and other high-performance polymers.
"Like much of the chemicals industry, Victrex had a very difficult 2024 and there is now a significant disconnect between management's optimism and the market's pessimism. Management is expecting at least high single-digit growth over the medium term, but the market is still very wary after years of disappointment and the stock has a near-7% dividend yield.
"I'm a shareholder, so I'm hoping management is right and Mr Market is wrong."
Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LSE:LLOY) – Dan 'Financial Wilderness', blogger at thefinancialwilderness.com
Dan, who came third two years ago, goes with one of our most-read-about companies on this website for his share pick for 2025.
"It's been a really strong year for UK Banks as interest rates surged and kept high, but Lloyds (whilst increasing) has lagged peers owing to adjustments put aside to cover potential regulatory costs relating to it's motor finance operations.
"I'm taking a view Lloyds has provisioned for this limiting further downside, but with the cases around this referred to higher courts there remains potential for this to be a smaller risk for banks than imagined. Rates remaining high would also support further revenue growth."
Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC, ETR:INL) – Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell
After tipping a housebuilder to bounce back in the past year, Danni has gone for another rebound story in the form of Intel.
"There’s no doubt the last couple of years have been stinkers for the chip making company and whoever comes in as CEO next year will need some serious chops to turn the company around," she says.
"But Intel’s brand still has power, many of us looking down at our laptops right now will have the familiar blue square tucked in the corner. It needs to figure out what it wants to be because trying to be all things hasn’t worked out for it so far. It has the potential, the skills and the set up to turn things around.
"It won’t be quick and it won’t be easy but so much at stake and so much to play for it’s a company that’s going to be fascinating to watch in 2025."
Casey's General Stores Inc (NASDAQ:CASY) – Dan Lane, lead analyst at Robinhood UK
Dan of the Lane variety returns after a year out, with a stock pick that he says is "probably the biggest convenience store chain you’ve never heard of".
It has 2,600+ sites across 17 Midwestern US states target rural towns, with around half of its stores operating among tiny populations of less than 5,000 people, he explains.
"So, while it’s dwarfed in pretty much all aspects by the likes of Walmart nationally, it’s carved a niche in local communities," he says, pointing to "'little to no competition around gives a steady revenue stream and creates pricing power with a loyal customer base" such as its food segment in local towns, which has helped the business line grow to the fifth-largest pizza chain by kitchen count in the country.
"Admittedly, shares have woken up to the potential of the brand over the past few years and now trade on 30x earnings - somewhere in the middle of the competition, with SFM on 44x, BJ on 23x and ATD on 21x.
"I’m willing to pay up for growth though, and Casey’s proven ability to execute is attractive, as is the opportunity set ahead," he says, with around 75% of local towns near the company's distribution centres still without a Casey's.
Legal & General S&P 500 US Equal Weight Index – Dan Caps, investment manager at Evelyn Partners
Our third Dan, this one a newcomer, replacing colleague Emma from last year.
He goes for a US fund, noting that America is becoming an increasingly popular place for investors to focus, given it has led the way in terms of performance for much of the last decade, and now represents around 75% of the MSCI World Index.
The S&P 500 index is looking "worryingly concentrated", he says, with nearly 35% of the Index invested in the top 10 names, and over 30% in the tech sector.
While US tech valuations appear to be stretched and concerns around a potential bubble have grown, he says the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF provides exposure to the US "but avoids the concentration risk associated with the market cap weighted equivalent and at less demanding valuations".
"While 2024 saw the rest of the S&P start to play catch up with the Magnificent Seven which drove much of the return in the index since early 2023, there is still plenty of room for this rotation to continue, and if some of the AI euphoria does dissipate during 2025, the equal weight index could provide some protection from the tech focused mega-caps which dominate the market-cap weighted index."
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (NYSE:TMO, ETR:TN8) – Alex Campbell, analyst at Freetrade
Another US pick comes from Alex, who goes for Thermo Fisher, which he notes enjoys a dominant position in the life sciences and diagnostics ecosystem.
"It will benefit from secular market tailwinds, and management has demonstrated disciplined execution in capital allocation and acquisition integration," he reckons.
Exposure to a range of industries provides strong growth opportunities throughout market-specific cycles, while the increasingly bespoke and complicated nature of developing and administering modern medicines makes the products and services from a company like TMO "indispensable", he adds.
"Given the company’s competitive positioning and reliable earnings trajectory, its current valuation (comfortably below its ten-year average earnings multiple) presents an attractive entry point for long-term investors seeking to benefit from the growth in this space."
WS Raynar UK Smaller Companies – Darius McDermott, managing director, Chelsea Financial Services
Darius, who finished a very respectable fifth last year with a 26% return for his tip of Chrysalis growth capital trust, goes for a UK small cap fund this year.
"While UK small caps are currently experiencing their longest period of underperformance in years, history tells a different story," Darius explains, "over most long-term timeframes, small caps historically outperform their larger counterparts."
At WS Raynar a boutique firm set up by fund manager is Philip Rodrigs, who brings nearly two decades of expertise, which Darius notes were honed at Investec, River and Mercantile, and now at his own firm, Raynar.
"His exceptional track record underscores his ability to navigate challenging markets, and I’m confident this asset class is poised for a rebound."
Snowflake Inc (NYSE:SNOW) – Sam North, market analyst at eToro
Sam, who was second in the 2023 battle, returns after a colleague stood in for him last year.
He says Snowflake "stands out" for him as it has "carved out a niche as a category-defining data platform that significantly enhances enterprise AI and analytics capabilities".
Holding data for 40% of the Fortune 2000 companies, he says Snowflake is "not just a storage solution but a transformative ecosystem that redefines how businesses manage, analyse, and monetize their data", enabling companies to harness the power of AI-driven applications.
The company is expanding operating margins, which he says points towards a capability to increase profitability as it grows, while a recent earnings beat was complemented by an upward revision in the company's future outlook, which should increase investor confidence.
"In summary, whilst still being slightly undervalued on many metrics, it now has some momentum on its side and I think if we can break above $200 a share, this really has legs to push on."
Billy Farrington – financial journalist and crypto dude
Although he is now Proactive's former cryptocurrency expert and now an Australia-based hack, Billy deserves another go in the competition after winning the last two Xmas tips.
Over to our ex-colleague in modest mood: "Having emerged as the supreme victor in two yearly tips running, I feel like now is the right time for a gamble." (Ed: I admire your extreme confidence that bitcoin last year was not ‘a gamble’!)
"I’m taking a punt on the sterling-dollar pair, what the forex pros call Cable. (If you’re doing this via a CFD or forex account it will probably be spiced up as a 50x or 100x leverage bet).
"Trump’s protectionist policies risk pumping inflation higher which could result in a dollar headwind in 2025. Here goes..." he says.
Macquarie Global Real Assets Fund - Peter Sleep, Callanish Capital
Peter, who finished third in our first two Xmas tips competitions and has seen a positive return in the past two but finished mid-table, had to be tracked down after moving to a new job last year.
He recommended the Macquarie Global Real Assets fund when I got hold of him.
"This fund invests in real or physical assets like infrastructure, real estate and natural resource equities and bonds," he says.
"Real assets offer good returns that are often guaranteed, with some inflation linking, making them attractive to investors seeking some income and capital growth."
Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) - Oliver Haill, Proactive Investors journalist
OK, last and sometimes least, it's my go. And after doing not too shabbily last year I am not departing from my tactic (while often being unsuccessful) of trying to go for over-sold shares.
Shares in the weightloss drug maker, from an all-time peak of around $148 last summer, fell 40% by the end of the year.
A sharp drop was seen in December, around 20% to shave many billion off its valuation as investors reacted to Phase III data for the Danish company's next obesity drug, CagriSema, which achieved its primary endpoint but the 22.7% weight-loss fell short of high expectations for around 25%.
For context, this is better than Novo's current treatments on the market, Wegovy/Ozempic, which deliver around 15% weight loss, and slightly better than rival Eli Lilly's Zepbound's 20% weight loss.
Admittedly there are US political concerns that have weighed on the shares as well, mainly a big overhang as incoming President Trump's new Department of Health nominee Robert F Kennedy Jr may try to implement polices that restrict weightloss drug usage or that the White House could try to lower US drug prices.
But as Barclays said in a recent note, the overall usage of GLP-1 drugs remains low in the US and demand is outweighing supply, with there is "limited policy scope" for Trump and RFK Jnr to implement changes in the near term if they do anything that affects these drugs at all.
It's a speculative punt for me, I freely admit.
Tips and tip prices
- The Honest Company (NASDAQ:HNST) – Vince Stanzione – $6.93
- Hiscox Ltd (LSE:HSX) – Peter Higgins, Twin Petes Podcast – 1,083.00p
- Global X Uranium ETF (LON:URNU) – Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Swissquote Bank – $15.29
- Facilities by ADF – Andrew Hore, AIM Journal – 35.75p
- BAE Systems – Chris Beauchamp, IG – 1,148.50p
- Gold (US$ per oz) – Kathleen Brooks, XTB – $2,623.80
- Prudential PLC (LSE:PRU) – Richard Hunter, ii – 637.00p
- Victrex PLC (LSE:VCT) – John Kingham – 1,076.00p
- Lloyds Banking Group, Dan Financial Wilderness – 54.78p
- Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC, ETR:INL), Danni Hewson, AJ Bell – $20.05
- Casey’s General Stores, Dan Lane, Robinhood UK – $396.23
- Legal & General S&P 500 US Equal Weight Index – Dan Caps, investment manager at Evelyn Partners – 49.96p
- Thermo Fisher Scientific – Alex Campbell, analyst at Freetrade – $520.23
- WS Raynar UK Smaller Companies – Darius McDermott, Chelsea FS – 102.57p
- Snowflake Inc (NYSE:SNOW) – Sam North, eToro – $154.49
- GBP/USD – Billy Farrington – $1.25
- Macquarie Global Real Assets Fund – Peter Sleep – 1,054p
- Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) – Oliver Haill – €86.04
Tip prices are set from the last close before new year's eve.