- FTSE 100 adds 76 points at 9,138
- EU and US agree trade deal, reports suggest
- UK PMI survey shows weakening in key services sector
- Slew of results including Lloyds, BT, Vodafone, Howdens, Reckitt, ITV
4.42pm: Another record-breaking day
The FTSE 100 notched yet another closing record on Thursday, adding 76 points at 9,138.
The index continues to outshine most of its peers with its performance this week, IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp said.
“Outside of the Nikkei, boosted by the US-Japan trade deal, the winner this week has been the FTSE 100,” Beauchamp said.
“Institutions might be chary of putting more money to work in the US despite the bounce, but the FTSE 100 provides an ideal combination of valuation and dividends, making it far easier to make a case to cautious investment committees. Lloyds’ boost to its payout only burnishes this appeal yet further.”
2.52pm: Tesla plunges in mixed open on Wall Street
A mixed open on Wall Street, as expected, with the Dow Jones starting 0.5% lower, while the S&P 500 is up 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite climbs 0.3%.
The Dow is dragged down by IBM and Honeywell, which have plunged 9.6% and 5.4% respectively.
Among the tech giants, Nvidia and Alphabet are up over 1%, while Tesla has plummeted over 9%.
2.26pm: EU deal not yet agreed, it seems
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says the EU "really wants to make a deal", in an interview with CNBC.
The corollary of this is that a deal has not yet been agreed.
France's CAC is down 0.5%, though the DAX and IBEX both remain positive in Germany and Spain.
US futures are down a little from where they were, with Dow futures down 0.7% and those for the Nasdaq softening to less than 0.2%.
The FTSE's gains have also come back a little to 0.8%.
SSE is the biggest faller, as its shares go ex-dividend, followed by preious metals miners Endeavour Mining and Fresnillo as spot gold and prices both fall 0.8%.
2pm: BT at 6-year high
BT shares are up 10% to their highest level in six years following this morning's numbers.
UBS analyst Polo Tang notes that cost savings are offsetting revenue pressures, stabilising earnings.
The telecoms group posted mostly improved operational metrics for the first quarter, while its top line fell 3.4% year-on-year and group EBITDA declined 0.5% to £2.05 billion, with management reiterating full-year and long-term financial guidance.
Openreach revenue increased 0.5%, with EBITDA rising 4.6%, though line losses of 169,000 were an improvement and better than consensus forecasts, said Tang.
Consumer revenues fell 2.8%, while EBITDA dropped 3.5% as the division added 41,000 postpaid mobile customers and 11,000 broadband customers during the period.
Tang commented: "Q1 saw weak financials but better KPIs in Openreach/Consumer... Cost savings are offsetting revenue declines leading to almost stable EBITDA. While there may be a positive reaction to the improved KPIs, BT shares have already been a strong performer YTD and are at the top end of their 100-200p trading range over the past five years."
He reiterated several risks for the group, including TalkTalk’s reported asset sale, which could shift revenue away from Openreach and Sky’s ongoing migration of customers to alternative networks.
Openreach’s wholesale pricing may face downward pressure from April 2026, as alternative networks currently offer broadband at prices 20-30% lower, the analyst said.
1.39pm: Could the ECB pause be a long one?
Economist Mark Wall at Deutsche Bank says the ECB decision was effectively telegraphed by Christine Lagarde, but he speculates that markets are "not far away" from wondering about when the first rate hikes might come in the future.
"The question is, will this be a short pause or a long pause? And could this be a pause that sees 2% policy rates eventually become the terminal rate in this easing cycle?
"Uncertainty remains high and the ECB rightly wants to keep its options open."
"But if trade uncertainty fades, the combination of a resilient economy and significant fiscal easing will eventually translate into upside risks to inflation. Markets are not far away from switching focus from the last cut to the first hike."
1.10pm: ECB makes no change
The European Central Bank has kept interest rates unchanged.
Both deposit and refinancing rates remain at 2.00% and 2.15%, respectively, with the marginal lending facility rate also unchanged at 2.40%.
This was as expected, with the ECB also keeping all other policy settings unchanged.
12.30pm: US stocks set for mixed start
The FTSE 100 is one of the leading lights around global markets this morning up 1%, topped only by the 1.45% gain for Spain's IBEX and 1.6% for Japan's Nikkei.
US futures are still mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.4%, the Nasdaq up 0.3%, with the S&P 500 very marginally above flat.
Tesla shares are down over 5% premarket, while Alphabet's are up 3.5% after the pair's earnings after the closing bell.
Last night, the Dow closed 1.1% higher to end at its best level since the end of last year, with the S&P extending its winning streak as it climbed 0.8% to its twelfth all-time high this year, with the Nasdaq also rising 0.8% to hit another record close.
The small-cap Russell 2000 topped the lot, jumping 1.5% but still around 8% below its all-time high from last November.
After risk appetite got a boost from news of US and Japan trade deal, this has been followed by reports of another deal with the EU.
Taders are also focusing on President Trump’s ongoing attacks on the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell.
This has "an added piquancy" today as Trump makes the first presidential visit to the Federal Reserve building in Washington DC in nearly two decades, says market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation.
"It comes as the Trump administration has focused on Mr Powell, not just for his stubbornness in refusing to cut interest rates (as he blames uncertainty over the possible inflationary effect of Trump’s trade tariffs), but also for a large cost overrun on renovations to the central bank building.
"There is some speculation that Mr Trump may use these as a wedge to get rid of the Fed Chair before his term expires in May next year."
However, Morrison notes that the VIX volatility index remains "tame", which is "an indication that investors are increasingly comfortable with the current trading environment, and expect it to continue" but also "suggests a high level of complacency"
11.52am: UK manufacturing activity improving
On top of the preliminary PMI survey earlier, we now also have more information on the industrial side of the UK economy from the CBI Industrial Trends survey.
This showed a total orders balance rising to -30 in July, from -33 in June, but not improving as much as the consensus forecast of -28 had hoped.
The survey orders balance is not seasonally adjusted.
Economist Elliott Jordan-Doak at Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that it usually falls in July, so in seasonally adjusted terms the balance rose to -33, from -40.
"The CBI’s industrial trends survey points to manufacturing activity recovering in July, with the seasonally adjusted total orders balance regaining most of the ground it lost in June when it fell to a six-month low," he says.
This survey is "erratic because only a small number of businesses are surveyed each month", says Jordan-Doak, though firms "benefited from some genuine tailwinds in July" including easing geopolitical stress.
He also notes that the manufacturing PMI reached 50.0 in July for the first time since October 2024, corroborating the improvement in the CBI’s industrial trends survey.
"All told, the rise in the total orders balance in July remains consistent with our belief that the worst of the slowdown in activity following 'Liberation Day' is over."
10.49am: UK and India sign trade deal, EU deal with US agreed
The UK and India have just signed the free trade deal, which was agreed in May, but that is not the reason that markets are buoyant.
Traders are optimistic that the US and EU have reached a trade deal, with a reports from the FT suggesting the two countries are nearing agreement on 15% levy for European exports to the US.
Meanwhile, the pound is down 0.2% versus a rising dollar and down 0.1% against the euro.
The weaker than expected PMI report has weighed on the pound too, says market analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB, with sterling the weakest currency in the G10 FX space so far on Thursday.
"GBP/USD is backing away from the $1.3590 highs reached on Wednesday and is testing the air below $1.3550, even though the dollar’s performance is mixed so far.
"UK yields are falling, as bond traders’ price in entrenched weakness in the UK’s economy."
Market sentiment is being lifted by optimism about a US-EU trade deal, says market analyst Victoria Scholar at Interactive Investor, who points to a second day of gains for the DAX and CAC 40 as evidence.
Brooks adds that the euro is "not getting much benefit" from these hopes, though.
She says that the agreement has not been finalized and the US has not confirmed an agreed tariff rate.
"However, a 15% levy, along with a sign that Europe’s manufacturing slowdown is coming to an end, after the Eurozone PMI report for July rose to its highest level for nearly a year, could boost the euro later this week, and it is helping stocks to extend Wednesday’s gains," she says.
Today’s ECB meeting "should be fairly uneventful", with no rate change expected.
In the US, futures are pointing to a mixed open with the Dow Jones down 0.3%, the Nasdaq set to gain while the S&P 500 hugs the flatline.
NEWS: Over 2,200 UK jobs created by nearly £6 billion new Indian investment and export wins as UK-India trade deal signed.
More ???? https://t.co/eM89A1PLT8 pic.twitter.com/0Pbpzt4gW3
— Department for Business and Trade (@biztradegovuk) July 24, 2025
10.13am: Reckitt impresses Barclays
The FTSE 100 surge does not look like stopping yet, with the index up 93 points to over 9,154.
Howden Joinery and Reckitt Benckiser are at the head of the march, up 9.8% and 9.1%.
Barclays analysts are impressed by Reckitt's "beat and raise" update, raised their 2025 EPS forecast by 4% and share price target from £53 to £56.
It was a "sizeable beat" for the core Reckitt business, analyst Patrick Folan says, with Reckitt almost 200 basis points ahead of consensus expectations, as sales volume growth was 2% and price/mix 3.3%.
9.52am: Weak UK growth and jobs may force another BoE cut
Sterling has dropped after the weak PMI data.
The July flash PMIs shows the UK economy "struggling to expand as we move into the second half of the year", says Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which carries out the PMI surveys.
"Output growth weakened to a pace indicative of the economy growing at a mere 0.1% quarterly rate, with risks tilted to the downside in the coming months.
"The sluggish output growth reported in July reflected headwinds of deteriorating order books, subdued business confidence and rising costs, all of which were widely linked to the ongoing impact of the policy changes announced in last autumn’s Budget and the broader destabilising effect of geopolitical uncertainty."
He says the jobs market continues to be affected by the NICs and other measures from last year's Budget, with higher staffing costs resulting in another month of sharply reduced headcounts.
"The weak growth trajectory and sustained culling of jobs will add to pressure on the Bank of England to cut rates again at its next policy meeting in August.
"It seems likely that the disappointing growth and labour market trends will increasingly dominate the inflation forecasting narrative, encouraging policymakers to ‘look through’ the recent rise in price pressures and instead focus on helping to revive growth."
9.40am: UK PMI comes in short
The UK services sector momentum weakened in the first half of July, according to the flash PMI survey, with manufacturing improving slightly.
July's flash services PMI fell to 51.2 from June's 52.8%, below the 52.9 expected.
The UK manufacturing PMI for early July rose to 48.2 from 47.7, above the forecast 48.0.
Putting them together, with a stronger weighting for the larger services sector, the flash UK composite PMI fell to 51.0 from 52.0, shy of the consensus estimate of 51.8.
Staffing numbers decreased at the fastest pace since February, the survey found, with many companies noting the "need to reduce headcounts in response to higher payroll costs and subdued customer demand".
Input price inflation accelerated for the first time in three months, reflecting stronger cost pressures in both the manufacturing and service sectors.
9.05am: Euro PMIs, UKs coming soon
Flash PMI surveys are in this morning, with the UK survey due in half an hour.
The euro zone flash services PMI is just out, and it has risen to 51.2 for the first weeks of July from 50.5 in June, above the forecast 50.6.
July manufacturing PMI has risen to 49.8 as expected from 49.5.
The composite flash PMI is up to 51 from 50.6, higher than the forecast 50.7.
8.50am: Centrica, IG, AJ Bell results
There's tonnes of FTSE 350 results out this morning.
Centrica PLC (LSE:CNA) shares are down 1.2% after the British Gas owner reported a swing into the red.
Lower underlying profits and cash flow were both recorded in the first half of the year, but the group increased its interim dividend 22% as it felt this was a "resilient performance in a challenging market".
IG Group Holdings Plc (LSE:IGG) is up 5.5% after the online broker posted annual results, with net trading revenue up 9% and adjusted PBT climbing 17% to £535.8 million.
And AJ Bell PLC (LSE:AJB) shares have put on 4% after the investment platform reported what it called "record-breaking growth", with inflows of £2.5 billion as 27,000 new customers were added to bring its total customer base to 620,000.
Assets under administration rose 6% in the quarter to £96.1 billion, supported by strong market performance and continued investment in customer propositions.
8.29am: Howdens hike
Howden Joinery Group (LSE:HWDN) is now top of the FTSE 100 risers, up 9% as the kitchen design specialist posted 3% first-half revenue growth with operating profits and PBT both up 4%.
The interim dividend was nudged up 2%.
Boss Andrew Livingston says: "Howdens performed well in the first half, gaining further market share.
"The ongoing investment in our strategic initiatives is strengthening our competitive position, and our current trading performance gives us confidence in achieving our full year plans."
He says market conditions remain "challenging".
8.15am: FTSE charges ever higher
The FTSE 100's hot streak is continuing on Thursday morning, with the index charging 51 points higher to 9,112, and hitting a new intraday high above 9,120 moments ago.
European stocks are higher too, on reports that the EU and US have come to a trade agreement, with a 15% tariff, though the US did not confirm that this was the rate agreed.
Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC (LSE:RKT, ETR:3RB) is top of the early leaderboard, up 8.6% as it hiked its interim dividend 5% and announced a new £1 billion share buyback.
BT Group PLC (LSE:BT.A) is up 3.4% as it reconfirmed its full-year 2026 and multi-year financial outlook despite a 10% fall in profit before tax.
7.39am: Lloyds profits and dividend beat forecasts
Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LSE:LLOY) has rewarded shareholders with a 15% increase in the interim dividend as it reported a 17% rise in second-quarter profits to beat analyst expectations.
Underlying profit before impairments came in at £2.16 billion for the second quarter, beating the £2 billion consensus forecast, with no new impairments relating to motor finance.
Statutory pre-tax profit rose to £1.99 billion, up from £1.52 billion in the previous quarter and above the £1.69 billion estimate.
Chief executive Charlie Nunn said the results reflected "income growth, cost discipline and robust asset quality, driving strong capital generation and increased shareholder distributions".
7.23am: Mixed start to US 'Mag 7' earnings season
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) last night reported a 23% drop in second-quarter adjusted earnings, as the electric vehicle maker saw declining global demand, amid trade headwinds, protests and softer automotive margins.
Boss Elon Musk remained bullish, saying: “Q2 2025 marks a seminal point – Tesla is transitioning from EV leader to AI and robotics leader”.
He highlighted the launch of Tesla’s first robotaxi service in Austin, including autonomous delivery of the Model Y, as a key milestone.
But he said he could see potential for "a few rough quarters" ahead, sending the shares down 4.4% afterhours.
Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) also saw its shares initially move lower, but this morning they are pointing higher after the Google parent reported a better-than-expected second quarter.
Capital expenditures guidance was raised for 2025, with $85 billion now expected as it looks to increase AI development, up from its earlier forecast of $75 billion, which was what hit the shares at first, before investors came round to its way of thinking.
7.16am: FTSE 100 set for another surging start
Another swift start is predicted for the FTSE 100 on Thursday, despite news that UK vehicle manufacturing declined by 12% in the first half of the year.
The London benchmark is being called 46 points higher on the futures market, after adding almost 38 to finish at a record closing leveo of 9,061.49 the day before.
US stocks finished higher overnight, with the blue-chip Dow Jones and small-cap Russell 2000 leading the way, up 1.1% and 1.5% respectively, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose to new highs of their own, up 0.8% and 0.6%.
After the close, Alphabet and Tesla reported earnings, with afterhours trading positive for the Google owner despite a mixed outlook, while the electric carmaker fell sharply as Elon Musk warned of a few "rough" quarters ahead.
6.15am: FTSE 100 Live on Thursday 24 July
London's big banks begin second-quarter reporting season on Thursday, with Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LSE:LLOY) kicking things off with its interim results.
For many investors, these numbers may be somewhat overshadowed by the looming Supreme Court judgment on motor finance commissions, where the lender had around a 14% market share.
The FTSE 100 bank has already taken £1.15 billion in provisions, with analysts expecting another £800 million or so in 2025, some of which could be announced within these results.
First-quarter results in May included a £309 million impairment charge, which included a £100 million adjustment to “address downside risks” relating to US tariffs, while overall guidance was held steady. Consensus forecasts for Q2 point to improved net interest margins and profits.
Results from ITV PLC (LSE:ITV) could also make for interesting reading, with the broadcaster having already warned that it expects a substantial worsening of advertising revenues in the second quarter.
Elsewhere, there's a utilities theme to the day with telecoms giants BT and Vodafone reporting, as well as British Gas owner Centrica PLC (LSE:CNA), after it announced it is taking a 15% stake in Sizewell C nuclear plant earlier this week.
For BT Group PLC (LSE:BT.A), there was an ominous prediction from analysts at Citi, who forecast that these first-quarter results will reveal a "watershed moment", with infrastructure arm Openreach entering a multi-year decline.
Numbers from Vodafone Group PLC (LSE:VOD), meanwhile, will allow investors to check on the progress of the turnaround in Germany that CEO Margherita Della Valle flagged at the full-year results.
The Italian CEO said she expected the coming year to see "broad-based momentum" across Europe and Africa, with Germany returning to top-line growth, with a 2% increase in underlying earnings for the full year and a 5% improvement in free cash flow.
Announcements expected:
Trading updates: AJ Bell, Anglo American, BT Group, CVS Group, Vodafone Group, Wizz Air
Interims: Centrica, Howden Joinery Group, Lloyds Banking Group, Primary Health Properties, Reach, Reckitt Benckiser, RELX
Finals: IG Group, ITV, Metir, Severfield
Overseas earnings: Honeywell International, Blackstone, Keurig Dr Pepper (all pre-market), Intel, Newmont (after close)
Economic announcements: GFK Consumer Confidence (GER), Jobless Claims (US), PMI Services (US), New Homes Sales (US)