Of the 17 investment tipsters taking part in our third Xmas tips battle, all but four are in positive territory four months into the battle.
The stock market was broadly bullish in the first quarter, though with the state of things in 2022, that wasn't a tall order.
Way out in front is a newcomer, though much can change with plenty of time left before the finishing line arrives.
Unfortunately, a few contenders got hit by more than one profit warning and a dividend suspension, though as one competitor said of their pick, "here is a hope and the year is still young".
NVIDIA Inc - Tip price: US$153.40 now US$268.81 for a 75% gain so far
William Farrington, journalist at Proactive Investor, says: “It's great to see my stock pick ripping ahead.
“It's been a golden year for the California tech heavyweight, having firmly planted itself in the AI and machine learning space as trend drivers, not trend followers like Google.
“Nvidia's Omniverse technology is also scoring high-profile tie-ins with the likes of BMW and Microsoft. Here's to more gains!”
Burberry Group PLC (LSE:BRBY) - Tip price: 2,025p, now 2,485p for a 23% gain
Dan Lane, now an “independent trader, investor, market overlord”, says: “Return of the mac? I hope so.
“Lockdowns in China shackled Burberry’s January results but 2023 is already reversing the retail sales slump of the past few years. Consumer spending has been a key beneficiary of the end to ultra-tight Covid curbs and we’re now seeing three years’ worth of pent-up demand flow into goods, travel and leisure. China's retail sales are up 3.5% against a drop of 1.8% in late 2022.
“Big brands with pulling power and global gravitas have the chance to make up for lost time and it looks like the market thinks Burberry is well positioned. Valuation is everything though and thankfully I managed to nab the mac maker at around 17x earnings after it had flirted with the 40x range at times the previous year.
“Whatever happens next, I’m happy to hold an iconic name with a mouthwatering opportunity in China, and all for a fairly reasonable price.”
The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) - Tip price US$86.67 and now US$99.91 for a 15% gain
Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Finalto, says: “12% YTD is not bad I suppose…yet to see the real fruits of the Iger return…but I think things will happen later this year.
“Political nonsense is a distraction – do we call it the Iger Sanction?!”
Just Group PLC (LSE:JUST) - Tip price 78.3p and 88.2p now for a 13% gain
This was my tip and I say I’m pretty happy so far, with last month’s 15% hike in the dividend and “strong momentum” reported for the first quarter of 2023, including its largest pension transaction to date amid a “very favourable” defined benefit (DB) market backdrop and a £6bn pipeline that means it expects substantial sales growth this year.
Worries about the wider life sector in the wake of the US and European banking wobbles have knocked off most of the gains from that bullish set of numbers, but Just Group seems to have low exposure to assets such as commercial property that has given investors collywobbles about others, with the company’s share price also being half its book value.
Golden Rim Resources - Tip price was A$0.03 and now A$0.033 for a 5% gain
Peter Hodgkins, private investor known as @claudiohfox, has not got back to me, but the company recently provided an update saying it continues to identify shallow, broad gold zones during drilling at Bereko and Massan prospects within the Kada Gold Project in Guinea.
Fidelity Japan Fund (W Acc) - Tip price was 550p and 576.1p now for a 5% gain
Dan ‘Wilderness’, operator of The Financial Wilderness blog, says: “A good start to the year for the Fidelity Japan Fund. We still see lots of upside here, for all the unusualness of Japan's very different macroeconomic situation to the rest of the world (interest rates are still negative there), it's still driving an environment where it places the yen in a place where there's some really strong Japanese companies available very cheaply.
“The big risk here remains what's become some slight unpredictability in the Japanese Central Bank on whichever-version-we're-now-up-to of their plan to stimulate economic growth. However, this fund has consistently managed the macroeconomic stability well to deliver returns, and we think some of the best might be yet to come this year.”
TM Crux UK Smaller Cos (Acc) - tip price was 107.2p and 111.71p now for a 4% gain
Darius McDermott, managing director of FundCalibre, says: "I'm very pleased with how the fund has performed over the six months since it launched. It's again not been an easy market, but by investing in assets that have good valuations, you can see how you can make money even with just a little positivity returning. The outlook is still uncertain, but we seem to be closer to the peak in interest rates and growth has not yet slowed as much as first feared. We're not out of the woods yet, but for the long term, this is still an asset class that I favour.
“There is still a long way to go but the fund, managed by Richard Penny, has had a good start - it's basically second in the sector since launch returning 14.15% compared with 5.24% for the average UK Smaller Companies fund.”
Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL), tip price: 2,352p and now 2,418p for a 3% gain
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, says: “It was going well for Shell until the banking crisis hit, which pulled the rug out from underneath the oil price. But OPEC’s surprise cut has put a floor under the oil price for now. The bigger question will be whether the economy can skirt a recession – this would support demand too and provide a catalyst for Shell to move higher in the second half of the year.”
iShares Core Global Agg Bond ETF - tip price was US$4.33 and US$4.45 now for a 3% gain
Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, is just getting back to me.
Man GLG Income (acc) - Tip price: 329.3p and now 335.9p for a 2% gain
Peter Sleep, senior investment manager at 7IM, says: “The Man GLG has not performed quite as expected given the pull back in the value sectors, especially banks, but I have faith with the portfolio manager.”
Fidelity China Special Situations PLC (LSE:FCSS) - Tip price 238p and now 242.75p for a 2% gain
Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell: “The China effect hasn’t quite been as stellar as had been expected, so far. Fidelity’s China Special Situations has clung onto modest gains since the start of the year but with the erstwhile Jack Ma’s appearance back on the mainland there seems to have been a distinct thawing of relations between the state and the private sector. Alibaba’s announcement that it plans to split its business into six distinct parts has whet appetite further and the tide really seems to be turning on foreign investment into the country. I’m thinking that old tale about the tortoise might well hold true in this case.”
Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) - Tip price: US$32.59 now US$33.13 for a 2% gain
Sam North, analyst and podcast host at eToro, is also not answering my calls. Sam, help a fellow Gunner out!
Mercantile Investment Trust PLC (LSE:MRC), tip price 193p and flat so far
Ian Cooper, senior investment manager and divisional director at Brewin Dolphin, noted that his tip has outperformed its benchmark FTSE All Share ex-100 so far and is slightly ahead over six months.
"This is a pleasing result given the extent to which smaller companies, particularly those with more of a quality/growth tilt (which the trust has a bias toward), have continued to come under pressure versus their mid/large peers.
"While the team see supply chains and inflationary pressures easing, they envisage economic growth prospects being impacted by the second order effects of inflation which have been further compounded by geopolitics. On the back of this, exposure to macro exposed consumer discretionary areas has been reduced in recent months (trimmed Dunelm, exited DFS and Howden Joinery) alongside tech (exited Moonpig). Cyclical/economic sensitivity has been added through across financials, industrials (Serco, Inchape added), real estate (introduced during the political induced sell-off in Sept 2022) and the underweight to energy has been closed through the addition of predominantly gas plays Serica and Harbour Energy as well as equipment and services provider Hunting."
Digitalbox PLC (AIM:DBOX) - Tip price: 8.75p and now 7.88p for a 10% decline so far
Andrew Hore, editor of the AIM Journal, says the shares have “held up reasonably well even though weak advertising levels have led to reduced profit forecasts.
“The advertising market should recover later this year. The 2023 pre-tax profit forecast has been reduced from £1.5m to £1.18m, but the shares are still trading on less than eleven times prospective 2023 earnings, falling to eight the following year.
“On current forecasts, by the end of 2023, net cash could be more than one-third of the current market capitalisation. Spending the cash on additional online assets should enhance earnings. Still a buy for recovery later in the year.”
Direct Line Insurance Group PLC (LSE:DLG) - Tip price 219p and now 153p for a 30% fall so far
Writing before the helpful Citi double-upgrade this week, John Kingham, investment writer at UKdividendstocks.com: “When I initially backed Direct Line for 2023, I said its 11% yield instilled fear and excitement in equal measure.
“Well, it certainly lived up that billing by suspending its dividend.
“I continue to hold as I still like the underlying business and the CEO has quite rightly gone, but the odds of any capital gain this year must be very close to zero.”
Spirent Communications (LSE:SPT) - Tip price 265p and now 174.5p for a 34% fall so far
Peter Higgins, private investor @conkers3 and host of the TwinPetesInvesting podcast: “I am bitterly disappointed with the share price performance of my 2023 selection of Spirent thus far. Not one profit warning but two, as seen its share price decimated to lows not seen since the summer of 2019.
“The old adage is that ‘profit warnings come in threes’, hopefully I will be spared that battering [and] Spirent can regain their AI and 5G telecoms testing and assurance revenue drives.”
Thungela Resources Limited (LSE:TGA) - Tip price 1,454p and 885p now for a 39% fall so far
Vince Stanzione, financial trader and trainer, says: “Well it's been an awful pick, but there is a hope and the year is still young.”