The ASX flew close to its 52-week high today, but ultimately finished lower. The S&P/ASX200 closed lower, dropping 12.10 points or 0.16% to 7,481.70 after setting a new 100-day high.
Over the last five days, the index has gained 0.33% and is currently 1.88% off of its 52-week high.
The bottom-performing stocks in this index were Champion Iron Ltd and Resmed Inc. down 6.71% and 6.54% respectively.
Looking at the sectors, the worst performer was Consumer Staples down 0.74%, with HealthCare down 0.71%. On the winners' list for the day were Information technology up 2.32% and Communication Services up 1.08%.
We’ll now see how the week plays out in relation to the Federal Reserve’s rates meeting on Thursday and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate meeting next Tuesday.
The good news for Aussies is that we are on track to avoid a recession.
According to S&P Global, the next three years should be recession-free.
S&P reaffirmed the country’s long-term AAA rating and predicted our strong underlying economic growth would continue as record low unemployment and elevated commodity prices continued.
"Australia's economy will likely avoid recession and expand over the next three years," S&P said. "This reflects low unemployment and high commodity prices.
"The stable outlook on the long-term rating reflects our expectation that fiscal and external metrics will remain steady over the next two years," S&P said.
"We expect the budget to improve because of steady revenue growth, high commodity prices and expenditure restraint.
"In our view, Australia's external accounts will likely be stronger than in the past."
According to S&P, government deficit is expected to be less than 2% of GDP between 2023 and 2026, while net government debt will stay modest at around 30% of GDP during this time.
Making news
Index ETFs v shares - a comparative insight to make the right choice
Wealth Within chief analyst Dale Gillham compares ETFs with shares and looks at what to expect in the market over the coming week.
One of the most common questions people ask is should they invest in Index ETFs rather than in shares directly.
The reason investors want to invest in Index ETFs is because of the ease of investing in just one ETF rather than lots of different shares. But when asked why they are investing in the first place, their response is always to achieve good returns at lower risk, and rightly or wrongly, investors believe Index ETFs can deliver on these goals.
So, what’s the reality – are you better off investing in an Index ETF or directly in shares?
Index ETFs aim to track the returns of an underlying index such as the S&P ASX Top 200 or Top 300. To give you some perspective, I reviewed the three biggest index ETFs in Australia and found that Vanguard’s VAS Index ETF achieved a one-year total return last year of minus 1.78%. State Streets STW Index ETF achieved a total return of minus 1.05% while Black Rocks IOZ Index ETF returned minus 1.07%.
You may be asking what about the income from ETFs. While ETFs will generally pay income distributions quarterly, the figures quoted for the above Index ETFs are the total returns, which means the returns already account for distributions.
While the All Ordinaries Index fell around 3.5% over the same time, you may be thinking that these ETFs did a good job, however, the return on the All Ordinaries Index doesn’t account for income from dividends.
With a market average of around 3 to 4% not including franking credits, if we include the income from distributions, you would have achieved a better return if you invested in shares directly.
But let’s be realistic, no one person can buy all 500 shares in the All Ordinaries Index and nor would they want to, but they can buy the top 20 stocks quite easily.
If we look at the S&P ASX 20 index (XTL), which is the 20 largest companies in the Australian market, the one-year return last year for this index was minus 1.83%. But this doesn’t include dividends or franking credits, so if all an investor did was buy the top 20 stocks on January 1, 2022, and held them until December 31, they would have achieved a better return than the index ETFs quoted above.
Remember, investors want better returns at lower and as I just demonstrated, investing directly in the top 20 stocks definitely delivers better returns. And given that a lot of investors invest in Index ETFs to simply buy and hold, doing the same with the top 20 stocks will always deliver better total returns.
As for the risk component, the top 20 shares in our market account for around 50% of the total market capitalisation, which is very low risk.
So, if an investor is prepared to hold an index ETF for the long term, there is no reason why holding the top 20 stocks long term is any riskier. In fact, I would argue the opposite given that holding direct shares means the investor is not subjected to the counterparty risk of the ETF provider.
What's next for the Australian stock market?
January 2023 has been a very good month for the All Ordinaries Index with our market up 6.75% and it is still looking like it will continue to rise. Materials has been the stand-out sector this month up more than 10%, while Consumer Discretionary is up over 9% but the good news is that Financials is up in excess of 5%.
When both the Materials and Financial sectors are moving in the same direction, the market follows, which is why the All Ordinaries Index has been so bullish this month. While we would all like this to continue, we know the good times never last and neither do the bad times.
My expectation is that both the Materials and Consumer Discretionary sectors will start to slow, as will the stock market.
The trick for investors is not to jump into stocks just before they slow or turn to trade down, which is often the case. Right now, you need to be looking at sectors that haven’t performed as well, which include Utilities and Energy.
So, where is the market headed? In the past 17 trading days, the All Ordinaries Index has traded up closing lower on only three of those days in a very bullish display. That said, over the past six trading days, the upward momentum has slowed and I expect this to continue.
I still expect the Australian stock market to trade higher into February or March and up to around 7,800 points and beyond although we can expect one or two down weeks in the next month before rising to the next major high.
Dale Gillham is chief analyst at Wealth Within and international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also author of the bestselling and award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth — It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au
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The one to watch
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