Oil prices fell for a fourth session in a row, as fears of a lasting supply shock in the Middle East continued to fade. Yet beneath the retreat, the physical market looks anything but loose.
That is the message from Cavendish, the broker, in a note aptly titled "Tight markets trump volatility".
Brent crude settled 0.9% lower at $103.87 a barrel, while the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, dropped 1.6% to $100.30.
The October WTI contract is close to expiry, which can exaggerate day-to-day swings.
The trigger for calmer nerves was progress in Saudi Arabia.
State oil giant Aramco expects to partially restore its East-West pipeline within days, with full capacity potentially back within six weeks, after attacks linked to the Iran conflict.
That matters because the pipeline, capable of shifting up to 7 million barrels a day, offers a vital route for Saudi crude to bypass the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz.
The kingdom is also lifting exports from terminals outside the strait, easing worries about a physical shortage.
The reopening of the Yanbu export corridor on the Red Sea coast has further helped restore confidence.
Even so, the strains have not vanished.
Saudi Arabia has temporarily halted some shipments to European refiners, and Aramco has reportedly warned at least two of them that no crude will be available next month.
The squeeze is showing up in prices for North Sea and Mediterranean grades, where differentials have risen sharply.
Cavendish argued that the recent dip reflects a smaller geopolitical risk premium rather than any real weakening in fundamentals.
Traders, it said, want firm proof that lost barrels are flowing again before turning bearish.
Speculators are leaning the same way.
Combined bullish bets on Brent and WTI rose by 18,254 contracts to 429,413 in the week to 15 September, the most optimistic positioning since late May.
It marks a notable shift back towards optimism after a jittery few weeks.
