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The Markets
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Transport

BIG PICTURE: FirstGroup has lots of chances to recover from franchise blow

The award of the new Thameslink, Southern and Great Northern (TSGN) rail franchise is a plum prize, but there is still much to play for as five more franchises come up for grabs this year.

The award of the new Thameslink, Southern and Great Northern (TSGN) rail franchise is a plum prize, but only one of many this year.

Govia, a joint venture between Go-Ahead (LON:GOG) and Keolis, won the management contract for the largest rail franchise in the UK in terms of passenger numbers, trains, revenue, and staff.

It is the second franchise award announced this year - the first was the Essex Thameside franchise awarded to the Abellio Greater Anglia subsidiary of Dutch national operator NS in April - but there are five more awards to go this year.

The next one up for renewal is the driverless Docklands Light Railway, currently run by Serco (LON:SRP), which will be hoping it has emerged far enough from the government's doghouse to see off rival bids from Stagecoach Group (LON:SGC) and Keolis.

Later in the year the Department for Transport will dish out contracts for the Caledonia Sleeper, Inter City East Coast, Scotrail and Crossrail franchises.

The Caledonia Sleeper franchise is a new one being created by the separation of the overnight sleeper services between London and Scotland from the current Scotrail franchise, while Crossrail is largely a new franchise that is being gradually added to.

Judging by newspaper reports, no commuter thinks the rail network he or she regularly uses is much cop, so it is little surprise that incumbent operators do not have it all their own way when franchises come up for renewal, so it may be instructive to look at who the incumbents are for this year's franchise awards, and who comprises the competition.

Docklands Light Railway

Incumbent: Serco. Challengers: Stagecoach, Keolis

Caledonia Sleeper

Incumbent: FirstGroup. Challengers: Deutsche Bahn, Serco

Inter City East Coast

Incumbent: UK government. Challengers: FirstGroup, Stagecoach, Keolis

Scotrail

Incumbent: FirstGroup. Challengers: National Express, Abellio, Deutsche Bahn, MTR

Crossrail

Incumbent: --. Challenger: National Express, Deutsche Bahn, Keolis (65%)/Go-Ahead (35%), MTR.

All shortlisted bidders for the 2014 franchises have bid for UK rail franchises before, and all have stakes in current franchises, even if only through a minority stake in a joint venture, so all are well-versed in the bidding practice. Given the debacle over the 2012 West Coast franchise award, let's hope the officials at the Department for Transport are equally well-versed...

FirstGroup (LON:FGP), which will give up the TSGN franchise in September after losing out to Govia, may have lost the most prestigious gig, but it still has the most fingers in most pies. Other groups that failed in their application for the TSGN franchise were the usual suspects: Abellio, MTR and Stagecoach.

National Express (LON:NEX), which relinquished control of the East Coast mainline service and handed it back to the government in 2009, was not in the running for TSGN but it will be hoping that past sins have been forgiven when it pitches for Scotrail and Crossrail.

It failed to retain control of the Essex Thameside franchise in April, but the franchise process appears not to be like picking winners at the racetrack, and "studying the form" seems to be of little use in trying to decide who will win the Rail Franchise Sweepstake this year.

That will come as some comfort to Serco, which got into hot water with the government last year after an overcharging scandal.

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