Fracking, the often vilified and frequently feared process needed to extract gas from shale, was green lighted by the UK parliament in December 2012, yet, in the three years since no fracking has taken place.
Westminster’s narrative is apparently behind the emerging sector, which could ultimately provide the majority of the country’s gas needs.
But, the hot potato of actually allowing projects to go ahead falls into the lap of local authorities and their planning officers.
The arguments for and against are many and well publicised - albeit those against seem to have shouted loudest so far.
Debating has come to something of an impasse.
The geologists now largely know as much as they can learn with the information available.
It is now time to more the conversation along, to set aside concerns and to cut through the noise from both sides.
Frankly, someone somewhere in the UK shale play needs to frack a well or two if we are ever going to find out more about shale’s potential.
After that, proponents will be able to say with confidence that UK shale can be the economic game changer that some have promised, or the detractors will be able to stand empirically by their assertions that the economic potential is overblown.
The remaining questions are quite straightforward.
· Will fracking work in the UK?
· Can the gas be extracted safely and effectively?
· How much gas can be recovered?
· Will shale development be economic and, if so, how much is it really worth?
Answers can come in 2016, providing key decisions fall in the industry’s favour in the first quarter of the year.
The highest profile will come in February at the public inquiry into fracking plans near Blackpool, proposed by Cuadrilla.
Cuadrilla’s plans were rejected in the summer, some say controversially as Lancashire’s own senior planning officer recommended the plans should be approved.
In February, Cuadrilla’s appeal will be heard by the Lancashire planning inspector, as usual, though Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government Greg Clark can have the final say on the matter.
It is, perhaps, important to note that Lancashire County Council’s planning rejection in June was not itself a rejection to the process of fracking, rather an objection on the grounds of noise, visual impact and the impact the operations would have upon the local road networks.
Also in the first quarter, a privately owned company called Third Energy will hear a decision from the North Yorkshire County Council on its application to carry out a fracking programme in Ryedale, near the Flamingo Land theme park and zoo.
AIM quoted IGas, meanwhile, expects a planning decision on a proposed two-well exploration drill programme in Nottinghamshire, though there are no current plans to frack either well.
There will, more than likely, be further bumps in the road.
Indeed, those that have followed the sector thus far probably feel as though a certain amount of confusion and delay inevitable, but, there is a nevertheless a growing sense that things are moving forward.