Comment of the Day
Video commentary for November 28th 2022
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
China Protests Fuel Some Bets for an Earlier Covid Zero Exit
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Swelling protests against China’s virus-induced curbs may end up supporting asset prices by encouraging President Xi Jinping to accelerate the nation’s exit from Covid Zero, according to some market watchers.
“I don’t expect Xi to publicly admit error or show weakness, but this wave of protests could cause the leadership to decide privately that the exit needs to proceed more quickly than previously planned,” said Gabriel Wildau, managing director at advisory firm Teneo Holdings LLC in New York.
Most risk assets slid in early Asian trade Monday on concern the unrest in China, coupled with surging daily infections, may convince the authorities to introduce further Covid restrictions. At the same time, the country’s focus after last month’s Communist Party congress has been on supporting the economy on a wide array of issues from reopening and the property crisis to relations with the US.
Eoin Treacy's view - There are two big questions at the heart of the Chinese protests against COVID-zero. The first is how long they will be tolerated for before remedial action is taken. The second is how swiftly the COVID-zero mechanism will be dismantled.
Chiang Kai-shek's Great-Grandson Claims Key Taiwan Poll Win
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
According to Central Election Commission, KMT won 13 out of 21 cities and counties, while DPP only managed to secure five cities in the southern part of Taiwan, the least since its founding in 1986. KMT candidates took 50% of votes in the contests, versus 41.6% for the DPP, 11.39 million votes counted as of 11:53 pm in Taipei, according to the official election website.
That prompted President Tsai Ing-wen to step down as party leader, saying in televised remarks: “In the face of these results, there are many areas where we need to engage in self-reflection.”
The elections represented the last major test of Tsai’s DPP before her second and final term draws to a close and Taiwan picks a successor in early 2024. The KMT, or Nationalist Party, hopes the gains in local races will help it mount a comeback after defeats in presidential elections in 2016 and 2020.
The results will be closely watched in Washington and Beijing, since the DPP’s rise to power has prompted China to cut off communications with Taiwan and ramp up diplomatic and military pressure on the island. The KMT, which favors eventual unification with China, had previously overseen a historic expansion of ties with Beijing, easing travel, trade and investment across the Taiwan Strait.
Eoin Treacy's view - The Tsai administration has actively escalated tensions with China and the electorate does not want to be in a war with China. That does not mean they want to be part of China but not do they wish to do anything to antagonise China. Taiwan’s citizens are very much aware of the fine balance that needs to be maintained when squeezed between two great powers.
Mark Mobius Sees Bitcoin Down at $10,000 in 'Dangerous' Crypto Market
This article for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
“But crypto is here to stay as there are several investors who still have faith in it,” said Mobius, who spent more than three decades at Franklin Templeton Investments. “It’s amazing how Bitcoin prices have held up” despite the FTX fallout, he added.
Eoin Treacy's view - Even though may die-hard investors will never sell their cryptocurrency regardless of what happens to the price, that does not negate the fact it is a highly cyclical asset.
Eoin's personal portfolio: hedge short profits taken, trading short losses taken, investment positions initiated November 10th 2022
One of the questions subscribers ask most often is how to find details of my open trades. To make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.