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The Markets
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The Markets
by Proactive
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
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Macro week ahead: US non-farm payrolls expected to rise by 208,000

For macroeconomic data watchers, all eyes will be on the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which the first week of a new month generally brings.

A we enter December, the data will be keenly watched to see if the aggressive rate rising policy of the Federal Reserve is denting the jobs market which has so far proved resilient.

Consensus forecasts currently point to a 208,000 increase following a stronger-than-expected rise of 261,000 in October.

Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month giving an annual increase of 4.6%.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%.

Traders and investors will mull over the data as attentions turn to the next monetary policy announcement from the US Federal Reserve on 14 December, with UK counterpart the Bank of England on the 15th.

Other macro matters

The coming week will offer plenty more clues into the health of the US economy in particular, including the Fed's favourite measure of inflation, the US PCE core deflator on Thursday.

Of late it has shown inflation continuing to edge higher, with core prices showing underlying resilience, so giving little incentive for policymakers to hold back from hawkish monetary policy.

Headline CPI peaked at 9.1% In June and in September the PCE core deflator edged up to 5.1% from 4.9% in August, still below its February peaks of 5.4%.

"Nonetheless if we start to see signs that we are starting to turn lower then we could well see the US dollar come under further pressure building on the recent declines that we’ve seen since the peaks of late September," said analysts at CMC Markets.

Wednesday saw the publication of the latest Fed Beige Book, featuring anecdotal evidence and feedback on the US economy across the twelve Federal Reserve districts.

Elsewhere it will mostly be jobs data, with the ADP on Wednesday, which last time showed the economy added 239,000 jobs in September, a big jump on July and August, and on the same day the job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS), which last time revealed vacancies rose to 10.7mln in September - though still below the March peak of 11.8mln.

As we move into December, the Challenger, Gray and Christmas monthly job cuts survey also arrives, having shown cuts rising 13% month-on-month and 48% year-on-year to just under 34,000 in October.

Other notable events in the macro calendar:

Monday 28 November

  • CBI Distributive Trades (UK)
  • German retail sales

Tuesday 29 November

  • UK Nationwide house price survey
  • Bank of England lending data
  • US Case-Shiller house price index
  • US Conference Board consumer confidence index
  • EU econ, indust, services sentiment, consumer confidence and inflation expectations

Wednesday 30 November

  • Chinese manufacturing and services PMI surveys
  • EU inflation figures
  • US Federal Reserve Beige Book
  • US oil inventories
  • US pending homes sales

Thursday 1 December

  • Manufacturing PMIs from Japan, Asia, the UK, the EU and US
  • EU employment
  • ECB council and OPEC meetings
  • US Personal Consumption Expenditure index
  • US car sales
  • US weekly unemployment claims

Friday 2 December

  • German trade
  • EU producer prices
  • US Baker Hughes oil rig count
  • US vehicle sales
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