Comment of the Day
Video commentary for November 22nd 2022
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
Some of the topics discussed include: Wall Street steady but monetary conditions continue to tighten, Hang Seng easing back from the first area of the first area of potential resistance.
Eoin's personal portfolio: hedge short profits taken, trading short losses taken, investment positions initiated November 10th 2022
One of the questions subscribers ask most often is how to find details of my open trades. To make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.
This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Feedback on Our Tactical Views and 2023 Outlook
Thanks to a subscriber for this report from Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) which may be of interest. Here is a section:
Technicals over Fundamentals for now…our tactically bullish call was always more about the technicals than the fundamentals. Today, we provide an update to those factors, some of which no longer justify higher prices although they provide support at current levels. The deciding factor is market breadth, which has improved greatly over the past month and argues for us to remain bullish into year end before the fundamentals take us to lower lows next year. Feedback on our call for the S&P 500 to reach a price trough of 3,000-3,300 in Q1 '23…we've gotten a fair amount of pushback on that our forecast on this front is too aggressive both from a magnitude and timing standpoint. While directionally bearish, many investors struggle to see even a retest of 3,500. In our view, what was priced at the October lows was peak Fed hawkishness, not material earnings downside. If we were forecasting a modest 5% forward EPS decline and a reacceleration off of those levels, we'd concede that the earnings risk is probably priced, but we're modeling a much more significant 15-20% forward earnings downdraft, which should demand a more recessionary type 13.5-15x multiple on materially lower EPS.
Eoin Treacy's view - A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
This coincides with my view. The US yield curve is heavily inverted and the pace of tightening has been surprisingly quick. That suggests it is not unusual for the corporate profits to have been immune because there is a significant lag between tightening and when it shows up in the economy.
Inside a Crypto Nemesis' Campaign to Rein In the Industry
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
“There were a lot of entrepreneurs that grew up in this field and chose to be noncompliant,” Mr. Gensler said in an interview last month at the S.E.C. headquarters in Washington. “We will be a cop on the beat.”
Mr. Gensler’s central claim is simple: For all their novel attributes, most cryptocurrencies are securities, like stocks or other investment products. That means the developers who issue cryptocurrencies must register with the U.S. government and disclose information about their plans. In Mr. Gensler’s view, exchanges like Coinbase and FTX, where customers buy and sell digital coins, should also have to obtain S.E.C. licenses, which come with increased legal scrutiny and disclosure obligations.
The crypto industry has fought the government’s efforts to classify digital assets as securities, arguing that the legal requirements are overly burdensome. Even before FTX’s collapse, the debate was reaching an inflection point: A federal judge is expected to rule in the coming months in a lawsuit brought by the S.E.C. that charges the cryptocurrency issuer Ripple with offering unregistered securities. A victory for the government would strengthen Mr. Gensler’s hand, establishing a precedent that could pave the way for more lawsuits against crypto companies.
Eoin Treacy's view - The tech sector has an aspiration to “move fast and break things”. In practice that means ignoring regulations until sufficient scale has been achieved to shape them. For example, that is exactly what Uber did in ignoring taxi laws. China’s ANT Financial was allowed to prosper in a very grey area of banking regulation until it was eventually neutered by the government.
Housing Hotbed Offers Rest of World a Correction-or-Crash Test
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
By March, it will be a year since the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates — meaning ever more of the record number of people who took out short-term or floating-rate mortgages at historically low rates will find themselves fully exposed to the roughly fourfold jump in borrowing costs since then, a potentially catastrophic shock to their personal finances.
The fate of Canada’s housing market will depend on whether or not they can hold on. And just as the country was a leader in the years-long global real estate frenzy, how its downturn plays out — a relatively orderly correction, or a brutal crash — may be a harbinger for what awaits the rest of the world.
Housing markets around the globe are wobbling under the weight of central bank rate-hike campaigns, with a handful of frothy countries joining Canada in already seeing precipitous price declines. More than a dozen developed economies, from Australia to Sweden to the US, are in the midst of downturns — defined as two consecutive quarters of falling prices — or will be by the beginning of next year, according to Oxford Economics. If those slumps prove worse or more widespread than expected, it would deepen a potential global recession.
Eoin Treacy's view - The Canadian 10-year yield appears to have reached a near-term peak in the region of 3.5%. The rate is coming back towards the trend mean so this will be a significant region to test whether demand dominance has returned beyond short-term steadying.
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