Analysts were busy today chopping back forecasts for pharma giant Roche after what was described by one as the 'unequivocal failure' of gantenerumab, its treatment for Alzheimer's.
Shares in Biogen, Eli Lilly and Prothena, all competitors developing alternative therapies, jumped on the news but there were few straws to clutch for the Swiss giant, said the comments.
In what was another disappointment for the millions of sufferers, two phase III GRADUATE trials showed no statistical improvement in the rate of either cognitive or functional decline.
After tracking 2,000 people for two years, Roche said the improvement was just 8% and 6% respectively in the two areas compared to a placebo.
Gantenerumab, an anti-amyloid beta antibody, had previously failed a phase 3 trial in 2014 but Roche revived it after encouraging results from rivals developing therapies on similar lines.
Giving an unusual amount of detail, Roche said while there had been some level of beta-amyloid removal it was lower than expected.
Lowering the level of beta-amyloid protein is seen by some as a key for future treatments and prevention of degenerative brain disease.
Deutsche Bank noted: “The summary is results for both are negative making for an unequivocal failure that risks firmly putting the company in the camp of structurally challenged large EU pharma names over coming years.”
Partner Morphosys bore the brunt of the investor response, with its shares down 28%, but it was the reverse for Biogen with analysts saying the Roche failure helps it in a number of ways.
Even though it was not statistically significant, analysts said there was evidence of some beta-amyloid removal and that supports the view that lowering its presence is key to treating Alzheimer’s.
Biogen is working with Eisai on a beta-amyloid Alzheimer's treatment called lecanemab where phase 3 testing slowed the rate of decline by 27%.
Eli Lilly and Prothena are also developing beta amyloid treatments and they too got a small share price boost from Roche’s news.