Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s autumn statement is just days away and press speculation is fevered as to what may or may not be within the fiscal package.
Depending on which source you read the black hole is anything from nothing to £60bn but the mood music from the government is that taxes are going up.
The question is where and by how much and whatever the chancellor and PM might say that will be determined by the likely political fallout from each move.
In an attempt to assess what the political damage might be here is a list of possible actions that might be announced on Thursday and the likely impact.
Income tax
A rise looks off the table given the government's election pledges, even for Jeremy Hunt. but far sneakier and almost as effective is to freeze the rates at which people pay tax in a move that could bring in £30bn a year by 2026.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research think tank said the move would mean 3mln workers paying more income tax.
Chances - likely - few people really notice
Reducing the threshold for the top rate of tax - Hunt could lower the income level at which the top 45p rate kicks in from £150,000 to £125,000, pulling thousands into the new top rate of tax over the next four years.
Moving the 45p rate threshold will raise about £1.3bn a year.
Chances - less certain, politically challenging among some Tory party members though would seem an easy win
READ: Autumn Statement – what to expect and what it could mean for households, companies and investors
Extended energy windfall tax - Rishi Sunak, when he was chancellor, imposed a 25% levy on oil and gas company profits and Hunt is expected to go further and increase this to 35% and extend the length of the new tax until 2028.
The scheme will also be extended to cover electricity generators and is expected to raise £45bn over the next five years.
Chances - looks like a banker as needs must despite the PM's apparent objections to the concept
Reform capital gains tax - Higher rate taxpayers pay a 20% rate on profits from assets such as shares and 28% on residential property, such as second homes, above a £12,300 tax-free allowance. Hunt could cut this threshold to £6,000 — dragging more people into paying the tax for the first time.
Chances - Very possible. Again looks like an easy win given the current household squeeze, though the view from the shires might be different
Lifetime pension allowance - Hunt could freeze the £1mln threshold until 2027, which again would seem to be a policy targeted at the well-off
Chances - High
Dividend tax - Now at £2,000. Above this rate higher rate taxpayers pay a tax of 33.75%.
Chances - High though unlikely to be abolished completely.
Inheritance tax thresholds - Hunt could announce a further extension to the freeze on inheritance tax thresholds beyond the existing 2025-26.
Chances - High - This has been providing a nice windfall for the Treasury recently so the temptation to extend might be too hard to resist.
Other taxes
Electric car tax – Owners of most petrol and diesel cars pay £165 a year in road tax but electric vehicles are exempt. However, how would this square with the green energy transition aims and would cause an almighty response from the green lobby..
Chances - Possible, but would need a tin hat
Council tax rise - Currently local authorities cannot raise council tax above 2.99% plus a 1% levy for social care without a local referendum. Hunt is considering raising this threshold to reduce pressure on services.
Chances - Household incomes are being squeezed hard, this would be a tough sell
Finally, cutting public spending - Hunt will announce that there will be no more money to help government departments with additional costs brought about through inflation. Instead, departments will be asked to find savings in other parts of their budget to provide more cash to frontline services.
Chances - Public sector needs to brace for impact, but what happens to the promise to raise defence spending to 3% of GDP will be something to watch for.
Infrastructure - HS2, Northern rail link plus others are all said to be under review