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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
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Financial Services

Macro matters: UK focus on jobs and inflation

UK consumer price inflation is expected to reach its peak in October

As the Bank of England mulls when to slow down its pace of interest rate hikes, UK jobs numbers and inflation data of key interest, while there will also be a keen focus on the US retail sales and housing market indicators.

As for general economic impact, it won't come much bigger for UK investors than the Autumn Statement coming on Thursday, where chancellor Jeremy Hunt has warned of "eye-wateringly" tough decisions.

One encouraging factor for the BoE and Hunt is that the jobs market has remained tight.

However, some hiring indicators have begun to turn lower, even though there’s been little or no sign of increased redundancies, with many British companies still facing staff shortages, driven in part by rising rates of long-term sickness in older workers that the Office for National statistics flagged.

The ONS said around half a million more working-age people are out of the labour market because of long-term sickness than in early 2019, with over two-thirds of this increase coming since the start of the pandemic.

The number of long-term sick "remains the elephant in the room when it comes to the wider unemployment numbers, however vacancy rates still remain at elevated levels which means that there’s unlikely to be a spike in unemployment levels in the short term", said Michael Hewson, market analyst at CMC Markets.

Economist James Knightley at ING said he expects the unemployment rate to remain at its 48-year low while "greater scope for 'labour hoarding' compared to previous recessions could feasibly limit how far and fast unemployment rises over the coming month".

The headline unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.5%, with headline wage growth remaining at 6% but ex-bonus growth to rise from 5.4% to 5.6%.

As for inflation, the consensus forecast is for the consumer price index to be up 10.6% from 10.1% in September, but with core CPI to have dipped to 6.4% from 6.5%.

But those at ING are not the only economists to predict (or hope) that October’s inflation data marked the peak in the UK CPI inflation.

This data will include the latest rise in electricity/gas prices, which came in last month but are now being fixed by the government until at least April.

This means their contribution has "probably peaked", said Knightley. "Still, headline inflation is unlikely to slip back into single digits until March/April next year."

UK retail sales data from the ONS is due on Friday, following some pretty poor numbers in the past two readings: down 1.7% in August and down 1.4% in September both on a month-on-month basis.

"With the new energy price cap kicking in at the beginning of October it’s not hard to see that consumers have been reining back spending due to uncertainty over the lead up to October, as well as the farce that passes for our political institutions," said CMC's Hewson.

Though September's numbers were weighed down by the extra Bank Holiday due to the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II, this week’s October numbers aren’t expected to see a significant improvement, he said.

"With consumer confidence already at or close to record lows, it’s likely that consumers, if they do have money to spend, are probably holding back ahead of the end of the year and the Christmas period."

Month-on-month sales are seen flat, while the yearly figure is seen down 6.5%.

Excluding fuel, sales are seen rising 0.6% on the month, following a 1.5% decline last time.

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