GSK’s experimental fluoroquinolone antibiotic gepotidacin ended its trial early due to its success in treating uncomplicated urinary tract infections (UTIs), the pharma announced this week.
Deutsche Bank says that while a new antibiotic won’t set investors’ pulses racing, it might be a nice add-on.
A 2024 release could see peak sales at £350mln adding 1% to the broker’s estimate for net present value.
The Brentford-based biotech itself has predicted guidance of £0.5-1bln for unrisked peak sales.
Fluoroquinolones treat a quarter of the 10mln+ annual US UTI cases with around 400,000 needing hospital treatment.
Emmanuel Papadakis at the bank says if GSK’s new drug can become a second or third treatment it might capture a further quarter of this market amounting to “blockbuster potential”.
Ambiguity on pricing means top range prices of US$50-100,000 for novel IV antibiotics may not be realistic for gepotidacin, he adds.
Rather, a limited distribution drug price point may be a fairer range especially if the aims are for primary care use in a 2/3-line position, also if the new drug can achieve a recommendation for pre-hospitalisation use it could bolster the asset's value.
Papadakis kept an unchanged 1,500p price target, noting the shares have not seen this level since early August due to concerns over the litigation surrounding heartburn drug Zantac.
GSK’s share price was 1,441p today.