Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) will later this week spend up more of its excess cash to buy back more of its own equity, that’s according to analysts at Jefferies.
In order for Shell to meet its shareholder returns target, to pay out over 30% of cash flow from operations, it will need to increase its share buy-back programme by US$1-2bn, at the same time the US investment bank’s analysts reckon dividends could increase.
The dividend per share could go up more than 20% in the fourth quarter, according to Jefferies, though the bank thinks that could be brought forward to the third.
Without a bump in dividends Shell’s third-quarter results could turn out to be a disappointment, it added, worse than the “already weak trading update”.
“Earnings estimate (US$8.2bn) is 8% below consensus and we believe the gas trading issues in Q3 could extend to 4Q if the JKM-TTF differential widens again,” Jefferies said.
Shell will report on Thursday.
Elsewhere, Jefferies looked to BP PLC (LSE:BP.) - which reports next week, on November 1 - which it says it expected to increase its buy-back by US$400-700mln due to its surplus cash generation.
BP could, however, opt to maintain repurchases at its previously envisaged level following its acquisition of Archaea (announced last week).