Whitbread PLC (LSE:WTB) first-half results on Tuesday are expected to be pretty resilient, with the Premier Inn owner also opening a window into the behaviour of UK consumers.
For the first quarter of its financial year it reported UK like-for-like sales up 10.8% compared to pre-pandemic levels and up 286% versus last year.
Accommodation was up 21% and food and drink down 7.5%.
Analysts at UBS forecast Whitbread will "deliver a strong 1H23 set of results", though their revenue forecast of £1.26bn and underlying earnings (EBITDA) of £446mln are both below the City consensus estimates of £1.3bn and £458mln respectively.
While search data may suggest some future slowdown, the analysts said "currently we are not seeing it" in weekly data on revenue per available room (revpar) data for October.
Analyst Sophie Lund-Yates at Hargreaves Lansdown highlighted that costs are likely to rise by £20-£30mln due to investments in staff, refurbishments and IT, though margins are still expected to rise despite this.
"As a budget value and convenience option, if Premier Inn’s revenue per room is struggling then it gives a stark read across other areas of the discretionary economy," she said.
The shares are down 18% in the year to date.