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Central bank preview: ECB set to hike interest rates, Bank of Japan expected to stand pat

Stock and bond markets remain in turmoil and economic outlooks are still gloomy

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expeced to increase interest rates this coming week when its governing committee meets on Thursday 27 October.

Policy meetings are also being held by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Wednesday 26 and Friday 28 respectively.

All three have seen their currencies weaken against the dollar as the US Federal Reserve has been relatively ahead of the pack in terms of global central bank rate hikes, going higher and faster than most.

As the Japanese yen topped 150 against the dollar for the first time since 1990, the Bank of Japan has been willing to intervene directly in currency markets but is apparently unwilling to alter its monetary policy course, with policymakers expected to keep headline interest rate unchanged at -0.1%.

In Frankfurt, the ECB has also been reticent and was late compared with other nations when it came to hiking rates, with its first in more than a decade being implemented in July.

But at the last ECB meeting in September, Christine Lagarde and co hiked by 75 basis points, dictated by the upgrading of inflation forecasts to 8.1% this year and 5.5% in 2023.

Markets are anticipating the same 0.75 percentage point increment rise to 2%, which would be the highest interest rate level the Eurozone has seen since post-financial crisis in February 2009.

However, with the inflation targets now surpassed by German inflation well above 10% and the EU headline rate also into double figures, market analyst Michael Hewson at CMC Markets noted that a growing number of ECB policymakers have been increasingly vocal about the need for much higher rates, despite an acknowledgment that GDP is likely to fall quite sharply.

The ECB said it expects to continue hiking in subsequent meetings, albeit probably at a slower pace than the Fed, though a number of governing council members have called for front-loaded rises to move the headline rate back to 3%.

"This would be a huge move given where rates are now, at 1.25%. If the ECB does another 75bps this week the effect on countries like Italy could well be problematic and while the governing council of the TPI program there are still many unanswered questions as to how it might work. There is also the added problem that an aggressive tightening is precisely the wrong medicine at a time when demand is cratering and the blocs largest economy, Germany is likely to tip into recession by year end," said Hewson.

Moving to North America, the Bank of Canada has raised its policy rate a cumulative 300bps since February and is set to hike a further 75bp next week, with inflation pressures also in focus, though domestic demand is holding up better than expected.

"Up until the past couple of weeks, both the market and we ourselves had been favouring a 50bp move at the 26 October policy meeting, but the September inflation report and the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey have indicated a second consecutive 75bp hike is now the most likely outcome," said economists at ING.

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