Comment of the Day
Video commentary for October 11th 2022
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
Some of the topics discussed include: Dollar eases, gold steadies, stocks steady and bonds hold lows, Bank of England intervenes in inflation protected bonds market, China pauses but renminbi remains weak, technological innovation raises scope for unconventional war during times of geopolitical stress.
Email of the day on annuity pensions
It will be interesting to see whether the higher gilt yields (and turbulent stock markets) lead to an increased demand for fixed pension annuities and thus a new demand for gilts.
Eoin Treacy's view - Thank you for this email which may be of interest. Annuity sales in the USA set a record in the 2nd quarter of this year at $79.4 billion. With so much volatility in stock markets there has been significant demand for guaranteed returns and particularly now since bonds pay a modest yield.
Social Security COLA update coming this week - and it could be huge
This article from Fox Business may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Should Social Security beneficiaries see an 8.7% increase in their monthly checks next year, it would mark the steepest annual adjustment since 1981, when recipients saw an 11.2% bump. An increase of that magnitude would raise the average retiree benefit of $1,656 by about $144 per month or roughly $1,729 annually, the group said.
"A COLA of 8.7% is extremely rare and would be the highest ever received by most Social Security beneficiaries alive today," Mary Johnson, a policy analyst at the Senior Citizens League who conducted the research, said. "There were only three other times since the start of automatic adjustments that it was higher."
However, the decades-high benefit increase is not always good news for recipients, according to Johnson.
Higher Social Security payments are a bit of a Catch-22. They can reduce eligibility for low-income safety net programs, like food stamps, and can push people into higher tax brackets, meaning retirees will pay more taxes on a bigger share of their monthly payments.
Eoin Treacy's view - There is a lot of complication in the US tax code but one thing is certain, if you make more you pay more. That both increases compliance costs and ticks people off when they believe they should not have to pay taxes. It’s likely to become a political factor in coming elections.
Discovering novel algorithms with AlphaTensor
This article from deepmind.com may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Beyond this example, AlphaTensor’s algorithm improves on Strassen’s two-level algorithm in a finite field for the first time since its discovery 50 years ago. These algorithms for multiplying small matrices can be used as primitives to multiply much larger matrices of arbitrary size.
Moreover, AlphaTensor also discovers a diverse set of algorithms with state-of-the-art complexity – up to thousands of matrix multiplication algorithms for each size, showing that the space of matrix multiplication algorithms is richer than previously thought.
Algorithms in this rich space have different mathematical and practical properties. Leveraging this diversity, we adapted AlphaTensor to specifically find algorithms that are fast on a given hardware, such as Nvidia V100 GPU, and Google TPU v2. These algorithms multiply large matrices 10-20% faster than the commonly used algorithms on the same hardware, which showcases AlphaTensor’s flexibility in optimising arbitrary objectives.
Eoin Treacy's view - Taiwan Semiconductor initially expected to produce 3nm chips this year and now plans to mass produce next year. They expect to have 2nm chips in the market by 2024/25. A silicon atom is 0.2nm wide so the 2nm phrase is essentially marketing terminology for chips that more efficient and incorporate more transistors.
China Shows Off Drone That Drops Robodog With Huge Gun Anywhere
This article from The Byte may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
A video has gone viral of a large drone dropping off a gun-wielding robot dog, a terrifying vision of what the future of warfare and policing could soon look like.
The footage shows a sizable octocopter drone dropping off its armed payload on a rooftop in an urban area. The robodog then springs to life and stretches its legs.
The robot appears to be carrying a modified, semiautomatic assault rifle, which has been the service rifle for the People's Liberation Army and paramilitary agencies in China since 1995.
The clip was shared by an account called Kestrel Defense Blood-Wing on Chinese social media. According to a rough Google translation of the account's description of the video, "war dogs" that "descend from the sky" can be "directly inserted into the weak links behind the enemy to carry out surprise attacks," be delivered "to the top of enemy buildings," or provide fire suppression.
Eoin Treacy's view - Boston Dynamics has committed to not developing weapons, but they are certainly inspiring copycats. This kind of picture is designed to instill fear. It does not get over the issue Boston Dynamics has with battery life. A robot dog like that, has 90 minutes of usability before it runs down. Carrying a gun, it would be even less. At that point they had better explode or they will quickly be repurposed to fire back at an invading force.
Speaking Engagements - World Money Show October 2022
I have agreed to speak at The World Money Show in Orlando on October 30th.
The Chart Seminar London November 21st and 22nd 2022
We are living through fast moving markets so the next venue for The Chart Seminar will be November 21st and 22nd this year in London.
In the meantime, if you have any questions, would like to attend, or have a suggestion for another venue please feel to reach out to Sarah at sarah@fullertreacymoney.com.
The full rate for The Chart Seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non-EU residents are not liable for VAT). Annual subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.
Eoin's personal portfolio: precious metals loss taken September 23rd 2022
One of the questions subscribers ask most often is how to find details of my open trades. To make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.
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