SP Angel . Morning View . Tuesday 11 10 22
Rising yields and US$ weigh on risk sentiment
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Private Equity / joint venture opportunity
We are looking for investors / jv partners for an exploration opportunity on a newly discovered copper / moly porphyry system with two adjacent non-porphyry gold and silver deposits over 6km in South-East Asia
- 2,000m in 8 holes already drilled with intersections of visible chalcopyrite and molybdenite both disseminated and in B-veins
- Positive indications of grade at shallow depths. Total funding $2.34m to date. Current implied valuation $4.4m. Best drill result:
- 60m grading 0.4% copper, 0.2% gold plus molybdenum from 24m eg. below the leached cap
- 3m grading 0.51% copper, 9.2g/t gold, and 49g/t silver from 64m down hole
- 2m grading 0.3% copper, 6% zinc and 9g/t gold, 40 g/t silver from 33m down hole related to a massive pyrite-magnetite-sphalerite-chalcopyrite vein
*SP Angel’s role is limited to making introductions. No due diligence or verification of information supplied by the company has been performed. Interested parties should be aware that investment in a private company can present certain risks not present in listed companies (e.g. limited or no liquidity and no rules compelling disclosure of information to investors). This offer is open to professional investors only and is not offered to retail investors.
AfriTin Mining Ltd (AIM:ATM, OTC:AFTTF) – Additional Infill drilling results from the Uis mine
Core Lithium Ltd (ASX:CXO) – Finniss Lithium Mine opens in NT, Australia
GreenRoc Mining PLC (AIM:GROC) – Amitsoq field campaign identifies new graphite occurrences
Kavango Resources PLC (LSE:KAV, OTC:KVGOF) – Drilling commences on KCB
Kore Potash PLC (AIM:KP2, ASX:KP2, JSE:KP2)* – BUY, Target 5.0p – EPC proposal received
Tungsten West PLC (AIM:TUN) – Progress of the Hemerdon reopening plan
China EV sales rise 83% YoY in September to 611,000 units
- BYD sold over 200,000 vehicles in a month for the first time.
- Tesla delivers 83,135 China made cars in Sept, up 8% on the month prior.
Rare Earth prices rise as wind farm developers accelerate construction of new projects
- Prices for NdPr Rare Earth Oxide in China have jumped to US$96,710/t from US$94,150/t today
- We suspect the recent period of destocking which pulled NdPr prices back from a high of just over $134,000/t in China is over with NdPr Oxide prices rising from ~$83,000/t on 7th September
- High electricity prices, strong demand and political backing is accelerating the construction of wind turbines for new and replacement instillations across Europe, the US and Asia.
- Ongoing growth in EV sales in China and around the developed world is also generating new demand for permanent magnets.
Dow Jones Industrials -0.32% at 29,203
Nikkei 225 -2.64% at 26,401
HK Hang Seng -1.82% at 16,904
Shanghai Composite +0.20% at 2,980
Economics
Chinese property stimulus fails to lift off, iron ore prices stagnant despite peak construction season
- China has traditionally seen peak construction activity over September and October, however flat iron ore prices suggest this has flopped this year.
- The property sector accounts for 1/3rd of steel consumption – new-home sales in September fell by 25%.
- The sustained slump comes despite a wave of Beijing stimulus, with officials directing China’s major banks to provide an additional $85bn of net financing.
- China’s purchasing manager’s index for September was at 46.6, with anything lower than 50 pointing to contraction.
- Hong Kong property sales have also fallen, down 8% this year as interest rates rise, with the secondary market approaching a five-year low.
- Freight rates for bulk ships used to carry iron ore have fallen 80% from last October, reflecting China’s sliding demand as the property market continues to falter.
- Analysts will be focused on signs of policy shift at the National Congress starting on the 16th. It is important to remember that China’s property crisis was initially triggered by a centralised policy of deleveraging to contain speculation in the market.
Shanghai mega-port sees trade volume slide as container rates slump
- The largest port in the world, Shanghai, processed 42mt of cargo last month.
- This marked a 2.5% yoy fall and a 7.3% fall mom.
- Container rates have fallen 63% this yoy, pointing to easing Covid-induced bottlenecks but also slowing global economic demand as interest rate hikes begin to take effect.
China’s top steel producing hub ordered to cut output ahead of party congress
- Steel mills in Hebei have been ordered to cut output to ensure blue skies ahead of the Communist Party Congress that starts in Beijing later this month.
- Blast furnace activity in the region will be cut by 30-50% of normal levels, according to Chinese news outlets.
- China’s government usually curbs polluting industry for showcase events, doing the same for the winter Olympics in Feb 2022.
UK – The economy added 69k jobs in September, almost double the amount expected, while the previous month was revised to 71k, from 31k.
- Unemployment in 3m to August ticked lower to 3.5%, down 0.1pp on 3m to July and marking the lowest level since mid 1970s.
- Total earnings climbed 6.0% in 3m to August while regular pay (ex bonuses) was up 5.4%yoy.
- In real terms, earnings continued to fall with total pay down 2.4%yoy and regular pay down 2.9%.
- While below record decline in real regular pay recorded in 3m to June, it still remains among the largest declines in growth since comparable records started in 2001.
- Strong payrolls and further inflationary pressures suggest the central bank will hike rates further with markets pricing the rate to hit 4.75% by the end of the year, up from 2.25% currently.
- The BOE was forced to include inflation linked bonds into its emergency liquidity programme following a major selloff leading to yields on 10y index linked debt rising 64bp to 1.23% on Monday.
- That was the strongest daily increase since early 1990s.
Former IMF economist urges BoE to raise rates ahead of next meeting to demonstrate independence from government Treasury
- Maurice Obstfeld, a former chief economist of the IMF reckons the BoE is in a position where it must demonstrate it is not a captive of the Treasury.
- The move would undoubtedly inflict severe economic harm to the economy and much of the population of the UK.
- A rapid rise in property prices over the past 30 years to sky-high levels has led to a sharp rise in household mortgage borrowing fed by low interest rates, a lack of adequate housing supply, mortgage availability and ever rising property prices.
- Globally property prices are expected to fall by around 20% as affordability becomes more difficult for new buyers. UK two-year mortgage rates are reported to be >6%.
- Governments will either need to encourage new buyers with incentives or risk property price capitulation.
Dysfunction in UK government bond ‘Gilts’ market forces BoE to broaden scope of emergency bond buying
- The BoE is buying up to £5bn of index-linked debt and has warned of material risk to the financial stability of the UK economy.
- The intervention is alongside the buying of £65bn worth of conventional long-dated government bonds.
- UK 30-year bond yields have risen to around 4.8% and are climbing back to the 5.1% gilt yield seen on 26th September before the BoE stepped into calm the market after the government mini budget.
- The market is being driven by LDI funds selling bonds into the market and by a lack of liquidity alongside risk aversion as funds move towards higher US dollar interest rates.
- Rising US interest rates is repricing all other government debt with momentum likely to cause yields to overshoot.
UK house prices overvalued by a third and likely to fall according to Oxford Economics, a leading and highly respected research group.
- The analysis is based on the affordability of average house prices relative to mortgage payments and earnings since 2000 (The Times).
- Affordability levels have fallen dramatically in recent weeks with mortgage lenders asking borrowers to stump up greater equity and to demonstrate affordability at 7% interest rates.
- The higher equity hurdle is a major impediment for first time buyers but is understandable for banks looking to protect their investment in a falling property market.
- The analysis does not take into account households’ increased outgoings due to inflation indicating which will make mortgage affordability that much more difficult this winter.
- Five year mortgages are now on offer for >6% for the first time in 12 years.
Hungary – Inflation hit 20.1%yoy in September marking the highest rate since 1996 led by a >62% increase in energy prices.
- Food prices are reported to have climbed at an annual rate of 35%.
- That compares to 15.6% recorded in the previous month.
- The central bank ended its tightening policy last month after the most aggressive campaign in the EU taking the base rate to an EU-high of 13%.
- The central bank may need to resume rate hikes now.
- Hungary said it swill help build a pipeline to connect Serbia to the Druzhba pipeline to ensure continued oil supply to Belgrade despite EU sanctions on Russia, FT writes.
- Serbia currently gets its oil via Croatia and the Adriatic Sea, the route that will be halted when EU enforces a ban on Russian seaborne crude in December.
- New pipeline is expected to be completed within two years.
- Hungary along with Czech Republic and Slovakia currently have an exemption under incoming Russian crude oil imports embargo that will be effective by end-2022 and will continue to import Russian oil until 2024.
Debt crisis – UNDP warns of serious debt crisis developing in emerging markets
- The UNDP reckon some 54 nations are now in need of debt relief representing more than half the world’s lowest income people.
- The UNDP is concerned that many will face extreme poverty increasing the risks posed by climate change.
- “Without effective debt restructuring, poverty will rise and desperately needed investments in climate adaptation and mitigation will not happen” according to the UNDP administrator.
- The BoE is looking to steady the market and may, potentially turn a profit on its bond buying when pricing in current dysfunctional markets calms down.
South African minerals exports remain disrupted as Port strike negotiations enter second day
- Officials from Transnet, South Africa’s state-owned transport operator, are still negotiating with strikers over wage demands.
- Employees are demanding a 13.5% wage increase after annual inflation hit 7.6%.
- The Company, which operates industrial harbours, fuel pipelines and railways, has had to declare force majeure on shipments because of the strike.
- South African coal exports have been hoovered up by European buyers currently engulfed in the energy crisis, with shipments up 8x.
- Kumba Iron Ore warned yesterday that export sales may halve as a result of the strike.
Currencies
US$0.9701/eur vs 0.9727/eur yesterday. Yen 145.63/$ vs 145.26/$. SAr 18.139/$ vs 18.132/$. $1.103/gbp vs $1.110/gbp. 0.627/aud vs 0.632/aud. CNY 7.186/$ vs 7.118/$.
Dollar Index 113.29 / +2.94% on week
Commodity News
Gold sustains weakness as investors keep faith in the Dollar as today’s most attractive safe haven asset
- Gold is now down 3.5% from its early-October highs, settling around $1,665/oz.
- Over the same period, the dollar has rallied nearly 3% against a basket of major currencies.
- The pace with which the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates vs other central banks such as the ECB and BoE has seen the Dollar soar, weighing on gold prices.
- Gold has also been weighed down by soaring US Treasury yields in recent months.
- Since US real yields on the 10-year Treasury jumped above 0% to over 1.62%, gold has fallen 15%.
- Gold ETF outflows show no sign of relenting, with $21m worth of gold sold yesterday alone.
- Ironically, and contrary to previous logic, an easing of inflationary pressures and subsequent Fed pivot towards lower rates, is expected to be a major positive catalyst for gold prices. However, we do not expect this to occur imminently.
- September’s US CPI Report on Thursday will be the next major catalyst for both the gold and the Dollar.
Copper remains flat as investors weigh up economic concerns with low inventories and supply limitations
- Copper prices have remained relatively rangebound since bouncing from 2-year lows in July, hovering between $7,500/t where they sit now and $8,000/t.
- The undecisive trading reflects investor dilemma, with global inventories suggesting extreme market tightness but economic forecasts pointing to weaker short/medium term demand.
- Against a 10-year seasonal average, inventories are c.55% lower today, with LME cash premiums for physical copper at 4-year highs despite easing 50% from late-September levels.
- Warnings from the IMF, World Bank, and major investment banks of a global economic recession, paralleled by a slump in one of copper’s major demand drivers, the Chinese property sector, is limiting copper’s upwards’ momentum.
- Copper should find some direction following China’s National Congress this weekend, with traders waiting for future guidance on a potential policy shift away from Beijing’s ‘Zero-Covid’ approach.
- The long-term copper project pipeline remains structurally under-invested, with grade declines alongside environmental and political pressures in South America set to weigh on supply as electrification demand gets into top gear.
Lead prices whipsaw as stocks shrink on series of refiner closures across Europe
- Lead prices jumped 18% over the past 2 weeks before paring gains to settle around $20,000/t.
- The volatile move followed a cancellation of 17,215t on the LME, Reuters reports.
- LME lead stocks are near 22-year lows, currently sitting at just a few hours’ worth of global demand.
- Although lead smelter electricity demand pales in comparison to that of zinc, European refiners and recyclers have limited production amid soaring natural gas costs.
- Escobat Tech, the largest lead recycler in the world, suspended 80kt of annual supply in October.
- Glencore is also analysing its Italian lead plant as margins remain pressures by energy costs.
- Trafigura is due to close its lead smelter in Australia for 55 days to execute a maintenance overhaul.
- Lead recyclers in China have seen operating rates slide 41% this year vs 55% in 2021 (Macquarie) as scrap supply fell and hydro/coal costs limited power access.
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,665/oz vs US$1,688/oz yesterday
Gold ETFs 96.8moz vs US$96.8moz yesterday
Platinum US$895/oz vs US$912/oz yesterday
Palladium US$2,171/oz vs US$2,184/oz yesterday
Silver US$19.36/oz vs US$19.84/oz yesterday
Rhodium US$14,000/oz vs US$14,000/oz yesterday
Base metals:
Copper US$ 7,511/t vs US$7,520/t yesterday
Aluminium US$ 2,227/t vs US$2,272/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 22,355/t vs US$22,170/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 2,935/t vs US$2,987/t yesterday
Lead US$ 1,982/t vs US$2,029/t yesterday
Tin US$ 20,000/t vs US$19,965/t yesterday
Energy:
Oil US$95.4/bbl vs US$97.5/bbl yesterday
Crude oil prices fell overnight on market commentary of the growing risk of global recession and inflationary pressures, as well as fears of a flare up in COVID-19 in China.
European energy prices rose after Moscow stepped up its war in Ukraine yesterday, with an already stressed electricity market with low hydro reservoir levels in Norway and lower nuclear output in France.
Natural Gas US$6.508/mmbtu vs US$6.693/mmbtu yesterday
Uranium UXC US$48.80/lb vs US$48.60/lb yesterday
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$96.0/t vs US$94.2/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$579.3/t vs US$585.8/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$230.0/t vs US$230.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$382.5/t vs US$382.5/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$283.0/t vs US$283.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$51,955/t vs US$51,955/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$96,710/t vs US$94,150/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$70,620/t vs US$70,472/t
China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$5,610/t vs US$5,590/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,198/t vs US$1,201/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$32.0/kg vs US$32.3/kg
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$845/t vs US$845/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 7.2/lb vs US$7.2/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 30.75/kg vs US$30.75/kg
Vanadium prices remain relatively high in China
- Vanadium Nitride prices are holding at ~20% higher than their August low in China.
- Construction steel producers are anticipating a raft of new construction projects to be announced during next weeks CPC congress in Beijing
- Unfinished construction projects have also been forced to restart in certain states drawing further demand for rebar
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$317/t vs US$320/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$66.0/t vs US$66.4/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$650.0/t vs US$650.0/t
Battery News
Company News
AfriTin Mining Ltd (AIM:ATM, OTC:AFTTF) 4.45p, Mkt Cap £67.5m – Additional Infill drilling results from the Uis mine
- Afritin reports that it has now completed 47 of its planned 50-hole lithium and tantalum infill drilling programme at the Uis mine in Namibia.
- The company has previously announced the results of the initial 9 holes of the programme covering the V1/V2 pegmatite and is now releasing results of a further 11 holes.
- The drilling, which includes both diamond drilling and reverse circulation holes, “aims to upgrade the existing resource classification for lithium and tantalum over the areas where tin is currently classified within the measured and indicated categories for the 2019 JORC (2012) compliant mineral resource estimate”.
- Results so far help confirm the current geological interpretation and show that “the V1 and V2 bodies have bifurcated into individual units, and in some holes the V1 pegmatite has an offshoot into the hanging wall (referred to as the V1 Upper …). The dip angle of the pegmatites varies from 24 degrees to 48 degrees and the majority of the reported drill holes are orientated vertically such that reported intersections represent apparent thickness”.
- Among the results highlighted in today’s announcement are:
- A 35m wide intersection at an average grade of 0.149% tin, 0.94% Li2O and 77ppm tantalum from a depth of 149.92m in hole V1V2-2032; and
- A 25m wide intersection at an average grade of 0.197% tin, 0.60% Li2O and 140ppm tantalum from a depth of 46m in hole V1V2-2076; and
- A 34m wide intersection at an average grade of 0.186% tin, 0.57% Li2O and 116ppm tantalum from a depth of 13m in hole V1V2-2072 which also intersected 0.92m averaging 5.154% tin, 0.32% Li2O and 582ppm tantalum from 5.11m depth.
- Afritin confirms that “Pegmatite was intersected in all holes at the depths and apparent widths predicted by the geological model”.
- Welcoming the results, which he said were “very much in line with our high expectations”, CEO, Anthony Viljoen, explained that they “relate to the north-eastern portion of the V1/V2 pegmatite ore body, which is an area known to contain higher tantalum and tin grades”.
- He clarified that “the average tantalum grade is approximately 40% higher than the average of the existing mineral resource estimate (119 ppm vs 85 ppm), and the tin grade is approximately 30% higher than the average of the resource estimate (0.174% vs 0.134%)”.
- Today’s results follow previously announced results including:
- A 22.43m long intersection of the V2 pegmatite averaging 0.153% tin, 104ppm tantalum and 1.18% Li2O from a depth of 22.96m in hole V1V2-2055; and
- A 69.09m long intersection of the V1 pegmatite averaging 0.178% tin, 98ppm tantalum and 0.45% Li2O from a depth of 98.09m in hole V1V2-2061; and
- A 52.25m long intersection of the V1 pegmatite averaging 0.173% tin, 86ppm tantalum and 0.58% Li2O from a depth of 134.84m in hole V1V2-2064.
- Mr. Viljoen said that Afritin is looking forward to “upgrading our mineral resource estimate and bringing on tantalum and lithium by-product revenue streams alongside our existing tin production”.
Conclusion: The infill drilling campaign at Uis is validating the company’s geological modelling and gathering data for an upgraded mineral resources estimate. Today’s results include holes from higher grade sections in the northeast part of the orebody which are likely to help enhance the grade of the new resources estimate
Core Lithium Ltd (ASX:CXO) A$1.14c, Mkt cap A$2.1bn – Finniss Lithium Mine opens in NT, Australia
- Core’s Finniss officially opened on Monday, making it the first lithium mine in production in the Northern Territory and Australia’s only lithium mine outside Western Australia.
- The Company’s DFS completed in mid-2021 highlighted an average production of 173ktpa SC6 at a C1 opex of US$364/t.
- The first four years of production are already 80% tied up with offtake, including Tesla who signed a binding term sheet in March 2022 for 110kt of spodumene concentrate to Tesla over four years.
- The company already had pre-existing offtake deals with Ganfeng Lithium and Sichuan Yahua.
GreenRoc Mining PLC (AIM:GROC) 4.35p, Mkt Cap £4.8m – Amitsoq field campaign identifies new graphite occurrences
- GreenRoc provides an update from its field exploration campaign that was conduced in July 2022, focusing on grab samples across the recently expanded project area.
- The company took a total of 18 grab samples were taken from four locations, all of which were previously unexplored.
- At Nanortalik Island, the company targeted two historic graphite occurrences and took three samples from outcrop that graded as high as 27.9% C(g) at the southern occurrence.
- Six samples were taken at the northern occurrence, with five samples exhibiting high graphitic carbon grades, ranging from 23.4 to 32.5% C(g).
- Greenroc sampled the Amitsoq Valley Bed, taking tour samples following the discovery of graphite-bearing outcrops along a strike length of ~1km trending north along the shoreline.
- Samples at the valley bed were taken from 2-3m seams of graphite, with grades as high as 24.9% C(g).
- Graphite-bearing samples were also collected from Tusardluarnaq North and Thomsen's Island, though not to grades seen at Nanortalik Island and Amitsoq Valley Bed.
Conclusion: Greenroc has been successful in identifying four new target zones of interest at its Amitsoq project, which will be followed up in future field seasons.
Kavango Resources PLC (LSE:KAV, OTC:KVGOF) 2.1p, Mkt cap £9m – Drilling commences on KCB
- Kavango reports that it has commenced drilling at its project on the Kalahari Copper Belt, commencing with Hole KCBRC001 which has a target depth of up to 250m.
- The hole is targeting a 100m wide anomaly that has been identified by 3 >30ppm copper pXRF Values that were spaced at 50m intervals.
- The company notes that sand cover is relatively thin at the target, less than 5m, increasing confidence in the Cu soil geochemical readings taken.
- The first hole is one of a maximum six planned in this current phase of exploration.
Kore Potash PLC (AIM:KP2, ASX:KP2, JSE:KP2)* 1.0p, Mkt Cap £34m – EPC proposal received
BUY – 5.0p
- SEPCO (Electric Power Construction Corporation), the engineering partner in the Summit Consortium, delivered an EPC contract proposal to the Company.
- The proposal was delayed from previously planned August timeline on the back of disruptions from multiple COVID related lockdowns within China.
- The EPC proposal will be reviewed by the Company and once agreed will form the basis for the Kola Potash Project debt and royalty funding.
- The Company and SEPCO started discussions to finalise a number of contractual terms included in the proposal.
- The proposal is based on the Kola Optimisation Study completed in April.
- The Study identified optimisation opportunities reducing development capital cost by ~$0.5bn to ~$1.8bn (excluding ~$60m in deferred capex during the ramp up period) and cutting construction period by six months to 40m.
- The project is expected to deliver 2.1mtpa MOP over 31 year life of mine at ~$100/MOP CFR Brazil AISC, one of the lowest if not the lowest cost supply on delivered to Brazil basis.
Conclusion: The EPC proposal brings the project another step closer to funding and start of development works.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Kore Potash
Tungsten West PLC (AIM:TUN) – 25.5p, Mkt cap £44m – Progress of the Hemerdon reopening plan
- Tungsten West has provided a progress report on its plans to reopen the Hemerdon tungsten and tin mine in Devon including an updated capital budget of £31.5m to progress the project through to commissioning by Q2 2023.
- The company confirms that it has placed orders for the long-lead-time items to be delivered during Q1 2023.
- The largest component of the £31.5m budget, which excludes a 20% contingency of £6.3m, is £10.5m allocated to ore-sorting equipment and associated structures and conveyors.
- Although the Hemerdon deposit, at over 300mt of total mineral resources is amongst the 5 largest known tungsten deposits globally, at an average grade of 0.12% tungsten trioxide it is relatively low grade and effective ore-sorting provides an opportunity to mitigate the grade constraints through upgrading the ore at an early stage in the process flowsheet.
- The second largest budget component, £6.2m for primary and secondary crushing with a further £4.1m for tertiary crushing and £2.7m for plant “process changes and upgrades”, confirms the focus on ensuring an effective process route to rectify the throughput and recovery problems experienced by the previous operators.
- Tungsten West also confirms that it is continuing “to progress towards final documentation for the previously announced signed term sheet for a US$30m (£26.5m) royalty sale. The Company is also engaged with a number of specialist asset backed finance providers and is seeking up to £10m of asset backed loans from these sources” and says that at 30th September 2022, it held cash of £14.5m.
- The company “expects to complete its independently reviewed updated Feasibility Study before the end of November 2022” and undertakes to “provide further guidance on project schedule and life of mine financial metrics once this is completed”.
- Scoping studies are underway for planned solar and wind energy projects and the company “welcomes the UK Government's recently announced intention to simplify and streamline the current planning process required for onshore renewable energy installation”.
- Executive Vice-Chairman, Mark Thompson, explained that the UK Government’s “cancellation of the planned corporation tax rise enhances the investment case in Tungsten West, de-risks the project and should lower our cost of capital. This supports our plan to proceed with creating the 250 direct jobs and an anticipated 1,500 indirect jobs through the supply chain to Hemerdon.”
Conclusion: Tungsten West’s plans for reopening the Hemerdon mine are progressing towards commissioning of an updated process plant during Q2 next year. An updated feasibility study, which will provide further insight into the project schedule and financial outcomes, is expected to be complete by the end of November. We await its conclusions with interest.
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474
Joe Rowbottom – Joe.Rowbottom@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0486
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
SP Angel
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street London
W1S 2PP
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
Sources of commodity prices
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver - BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel - Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt - LME
Oil Brent - ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore - NYMEX
Thermal Coal - Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal - SSY
RRE - Steelhome
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite - Asian Metal
DISCLAIMER
This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.
This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.
This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.
This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.
Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.
Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.
SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).
SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049. The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP. SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.
MiFID II - Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.
A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).
SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return of less than 15%