EasyJet PLC (LSE:EZJ) will provide a year-end update on Thursday on how it has fared during the critical summer getaway months.
Pre-Covid, the second half accounted for around two-thirds of revenues with the fourth quarter the most important.
Easyjet has previously set an expectation that capacity for the quarter would nudge up to 90% of pre-pandemic levels from the 87% seen in the third quarter.
According to Liberum, easyJet has done much to improve its cost base and strategic position through the pandemic.
It has expanded the use of seasonal contracts, which should moderate winter losses and better the cost base to the seasonality of demand, while snapping up slot opportunities at congested airports to redeploy aircraft to bases with higher returns, most notably at London Gatwick.
“EasyJet also benefits from improved ancillary revenue metric as it catches up with its peers on hand baggage charges and dynamic pricing thereof”.
Whether forward bookings are starting to suffer and people pull back on those extras will be something to note.
Fuel costs are always key for airlines. Easyjet had locked in about 83% of its fuel requirement at a price of $705 per metric tonne, some 28% below the going rate today, pointed out analysts at Hargreaves Lansdown.
For the year to September 2022, Liberum is guiding towards revenues of £5.5bn and a pre-tax loss of £120mln, which improves to a profit of £271mln in 2023.
The analyst consensus is for a turnover of £5.6bn and a £172.4mln loss this past year, rising to £7.8bn and a £267mln profit next year.
In the years to end-September 2020 and 2021 it lost £835mln and £1.1bn on turnover of £3mln and £1.5mln.