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Energy

La NIna the wildcard in Ofgem's concern about UK gas supplies

Ofgem has warned it might have to ration gas this winter if very cold weather bites

Britain is facing the possibility of gas rationing this winter according to regulator Ofgem due to the prospect of a harsh winter combined with supply disruption due to the Ukraine war.

A letter sent by Ofgem last week and seen by The Times warned of "gas supply emergency" measures being adopted to help preserve stocks in the event of a really cold snap.

That might mean customers on interruptible contracts being asked to stop using gas for a temporary period.

Ofgem’s concern follows a warning from the International Energy Agency that supplies might come under 'intense pressure' if the weather over the winter is colder than in previous years.

Worries over supplies to Europe, which is heavily dependent on Russia, have been as a reason for the surge in gas prices already this year.

Europe used to get 40% of its supplies from Russia though this was before the Nord Stream pipeline responsible for supplying the continent was shut by Russia.

To compensate, the EU have to cut usage by 13% said the IEA but that estimate might change if the coming European winter is especially severe.

Weather watchers have expressed concern about the pattern building in the Southern Hemisphere known as the La Nina (the girl) phenomenon.

For the first time this century, forecasters are predicting La Nina will form for a third year running, potentially causing heavy rain in places such as Australia and across Asia and also cyclones in the Atlantic.

La Nina results in the large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperature, which in addition to affecting weather patterns across the Atlantic and in the southern hemisphere, can lead to increased rainfall and much cooler temperatures in northern areas such as Europe

How it will affect the UK is not clear, but if thre jet stream surrounding the British Isles is pushed northwards, typ[cially this will increase stoms and wet weather says the Met Office (read more about La Nina)

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