Likely shortages of lithium to make batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) in the coming decade should drive a transition to hydrogen fuel cells for luxury cars and larger vehicles.
The Advanced Propulsion Centre (APC), which is backed by the UK government with the aim of helping accelerate the automotive industry's transition to net-zero, today published its quarterly industry demand report.
Following up on its previous report that established the potential of a lithium shortage caused by the rapid increase in EV adoption, the APC said a deficit in lithium supply could mean vehicle manufacturers make fewer battery EVs (BEVs) and opt for next-generation battery chemistries, such as fuel cell EVs (FCEVs).
EV and other car manufacturers and suppliers should be prepared to “mitigate” against lacking supplies and to “diversify powertrain choice in the short to medium term”, the APC report said.
Other suggestions were that BEVs could be made with smaller batteries, or substituting lithium out by adopting sodium-ion batteries for certain vehicles, as well as shifting BEV production to FCEVs as well as plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) and range extender vehicles.
As battery technology works it is best suited to lighter vehicles, the centre said as many as three0quarters of current larger vehicles and luxury models could move to alternative powertrains, estimating that around half could move to hydrogen fuel cells.
The relatively small production runs of luxury models would support this, the report said.
For SUVs, four-wheel drive cars and delivery vans, the centre calculated that around half of cars could switch away from batteries, with around a fifth switching to hydrogen.
The report foresaw around 6% of new cars and vans produced in the UK could involve hydrogen fuel cells by 2030, if its calculations are correct, compared with current forecasts nearer 1% for continental Europe and the rest of the world.
While there is development work on hydrogen fuel cells ongoing at several car manufacturers, currently on British roads it is mostly bus companies that are the main drivers of hydrogen adoption.
Northern Ireland's Wrightbus supplied 20 hydrogen-powered double-deckers to carry the first passengers in the West Midlands last December, and signed a similar deal with bus operator Go-Ahead in January.
This year, a pilot scheme between Stagecoach Group PLC (LSE:SGC) and Ricardo PLC (LSE:RCDO) received £2.5mln to look at switching a double-decker diesel bus to a hybrid fuel cell system to drive on local routes.
UK companies working on other developments include Johnson Matthey PLC (LSE:JMAT), which earlier this year said it plans to scale up the manufacture of hydrogen fuel cell components with an £80mln gigafactory at its existing site in Hertfordshire.
The new plant, which will be capable of manufacturing 3GW of proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell components annually for hydrogen vehicles, was supported by the UK government through the Automotive Transformation Fund (ATF), managed by the APC.
Ceres Power Holdings PLC in 2018 won £7mln of funding from the APC to work with Nissan on fuel cell technology, with the work designed to accelerate the commercialisation of the UK company's SteelCell fuel cell technology in automotive markets. Ceres also has secured some other big partners for its fuel cell technology, including Bosch in Germany, Doosan in Korea and Weichai in China.
Jaguar Land Rover has also received APC funding to examine how its Range Rover cars could run on hydrogen.
Other listed hydrogen specialists with links to the automotive sector include AFC Energy PLC, which makes fuel cell systems and elecrolysers; Scotland's AMTE Power PLC in June signed an agreement with powertrain developer Viritech to support the development of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles; ATOME Energy PLC is focused on the mobility sector in Paraguay, while Powerhouse Energy PLC and Hydrogen Utopia International PLC (AQSE:HUI) are looking at projects to convert waste to hydrogen.