SP Angel . Morning View . Friday 16 09 22
Rising US yields drive US$ index higher weighing on commodities prices
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Private Equity / joint venture opportunity
- We have an exploration opportunity on a newly discovered copper / moly porphyry system with two adjacent non-porphyry gold and silver deposits over over 6km in South-East Asia
- 2,000m in 8 holes already drilled with intersections of visible chalcopyrite and molybdenite both disseminated and in B-veins
- Positive indications of grade at shallow depths. Total funding $2.34m to date. Current implied valuation $4.4m. Best drill result:
- 60m grading 0.4% copper, 0.2% gold plus molybdenum from 24m eg. below the leached cap
- 3m grading 0.51% copper, 9.2g/t gold, and 49g/t silver from 64m down hole
- 2m grading 0.3% copper, 6% zinc and 9g/t gold, 40 g/t silver from 33m down hole related to a massive pyrite-magnetite-sphalerite-chalcopyrite vein
- *SP Angel’s role is limited to making introductions. No due diligence or verification of information supplied by the company has been performed. Interested parties should be aware that investment in a private company can present certain risks not present in listed companies (e.g. limited or no liquidity and no rules compelling disclosure of information to investors). This offer is open to professional investors only and is not offered to retail investors.
(AfriTin Mining Ltd (AIM:ATM, OTC:AFTTF)) – Placing to progress Namibian project
(Kavango Resources PLC (LSE:KAV, OTC:KVGOF)) – interest in KCB JV taken to 90%
(Power Metal Resources PLC (AIM:POW)) – Geophysics completed ahead of drilling at Target 1-6
JP Morgan and ICBC cut metals exposure in China amid liquidity crisis
- JPM and ICBC are cutting back on financing China’s metal trade, with at least three traders having their credit lines frozen or reduced in recent weeks, Bloomberg reports.
- The news follows fallout from top Chinese copper trader Maike Metals, who asked the Chinese government and financial institutions for help after liquidity issues forced his company to delay payments.
- That led to producers including BHP and Codelco diverting shipments away from the company for now.
- Maike’s plea to the government has rocked confidence in the market and resulted in JPM and ICBC pulling back from the market, though it is not yet clear if this is temporary or permanent.
Gold slides to two-year low as US bond yields climb in anticipation of major Fed hike next week
- Gold has settled around the $1,660/oz mark, having broken through the key $1,685/oz resistance.
- The price of gold has fallen 4.03% since the US CPI data came in. This almost immediately priced in a guaranteed 75bp rate hike for next week from the Fed and opened the potential for a 100bp alternatively.
- Expectations for a hawkish Fed announcement next week at the FOMC meeting were reinforced today by rising retail sales data today pointing to a relatively strong US economy.
- Unemployment insurance applications also fell for a straight 5th week further reinforcing the narrative that the US economy remains strong, giving the Fed more room to hike rates aggressively and weakening arguments that the US economy is in the midst of a major recession as opposed to a slowdown in growth.
- The market currently expects the Fed to hike rates to 4.458% in March 2023. This has supported a rally in US Treasury yields with the 10-Year yield currently trading at a 4-year high of 3.446%.
Higher US Treasury yields damage gold’s appeal. Investors are less likely to be drawn to non-interest-bearing gold when the US Treasury is offering them a likely risk-free annual return over 3.5%.
- Alongside this theme, the dollar has strengthened considerably against the other major global currencies this year, correlating directly to gold’s weakness.
- Investors currently see the US dollar as the most attractive safe haven, with global equities selling off $23tn this year, down 19% (Bloomberg).
- The dollar index has risen 12.2% over the same period that gold has fallen c.19% from its March 2022 highs. A dollar reversal should trigger a rally in the gold price.
- Gold’s optionality as a hedge against inflation has failed to live up to expectations so far, despite 40-year highs in Western inflation rates. Investors have likely lost patience as a result, explaining a 7.5% reduction in physical gold holdings in major global ETFs since a high in April 2022.
- A Fed pivot should provide a bullish catalyst for gold; however, this seems several months away considering current economic data and Central Bank comments.
Copper erases gains as dollar strengthens despite stocks continuing to slide amid supply tightness
- Copper prices fell 1.5% today to settle around the $7,600/t mark.
- The sell-off correlates to a strengthening dollar, however supply dynamics offer bullish potential to the copper price.
- Copper inventories on global exchanges are 60% lower than the seasonal average over the past five years.
- Backwardation between copper spot and future prices is soaring, suggesting tight supply as traders are willing to pay a high premium for physical metal.
- 3-month backwardation levels have extended beyond October 2021 highs when copper was trading over $10,000/t.
- Alongside the dollar, copper prices are being held back by a major slowdown in the Chinese property sector alongside a global economic slowdown in growth.
- It remains to be seen whether depressed supply dynamics will overpower a gloomy short-term global demand situation, however long-term fundamentals remain bullish for the metal.
Nickel prices rally on rock-bottom inventories as supply concerns persist
- Nickel prices have jumped 7.67% this week to $23,400/t.
- Combined LME and Shanghai nickel stocks have fallen 80% since 2021 highs and are 80% below the 5-year seasonal average.
- Analysts have suggested that the LME nickel fiasco earlier this year has reduced trader’s appetite for storing physical nickel in LME warehouses.
Dow Jones Industrials -0.56% at 30,962
Nikkei 225 -1.11% at 27,568
HK Hang Seng -0.70% at 18,798
Shanghai Composite -2.18% at 3,130
Economics
The global economy may face a recession in 2023 amid as more central banks tighten monetary policy in an effort to tame high inflation, the World Bank said in a new report.
- Estimates suggest rates may go as high as 6%, nearly tripe the average in 2021, if central banks look to bring inflation within their target banks, according to the report’s model.
- The World Bank study estimates 2023 global gross domestic product growth to slow to 0.5%, and contract 0.4% in per capita terms that would meet the technical definition of a global recession.
US Senate pushes $6.5bn Taiwan military aid bill following increased encroachments from Beijing
- The Senate is advancing a bill to provide $6.5bn worth of military aid to Taiwan.
- The bill enables a fast-track of arms sales and prioritization of ‘excess US defense articles’ to the south-east Asian country.
- The $6.5bn will be spread over 5 years to 2027.
- The Foreign Military Financing program used in the bill offers Taiwan grants and loans for the purchase of American military equipment.
- The move reflects the USA’s support towards Taiwan following Pelosi’s highly controversial visit last month which triggered backlash from Beijing.
Good labour numbers released yesterday strengthened the case for a third consecutive 75bp rate rise sending equity indices lower.
- US weekly jobless claims fell for a fifth straight week suggesting demand for workers remains healthy, Bloomberg writes.
- S&P 500 index dropped 1.2% on Thursday to the lowest point since mid-July with 2y Treasury bond yields climbed to more than 3.9%.
- The US$ resumed its ascent weighing on US$ denominated commodities.
- Core retail sales coming in below estimates did little to change the markets’ direction of travel.
- Initial Jobless Claims (‘000): 213 v 222 previous week and 227 est.
- Retail Sales (%mom): 0.3 August v 0.0 July and -0.1 est.
- Retail Sales ex Auto and Gas (%mom): 0.3 August v 0.7 July and 0.5 est.
- Retail Sales Control Group (%mom): 0.0 August v 0.8 July and 0.5 est.
- PPI fell 0.1% for August vs -0.4% in July and also pulled back 8.7% yoy in August vs 9.8 yoy in July
- Core rose 0.4% in August vs 0.3%, yoy 7.3% in August vs 7.6% in July
Biden to send another $600m in military aid to Ukraine following discovery of 450 graves in mass burial site near Izyum
- The new aid includes more HIMARS systems, night vision goggles, claymore mines, mine clearing equipment, 105mm artillery rounds and 155mm precision guided artillery rounds according to the Pentagon.
US Rail strike concerns ease as agreement struck with 100,000 union workers
- Fears of a rail strike predicted to cost the US economy $2bn/day have cooled following a tentative agreement between the rail unions and the US Labor Department was met yesterday.
- US Gas futures fell 8.7% on the news having risen on concerns coal supplies would be hit.
- Wheat prices shed 3.3%.
- Biden has hailed the deal as a victory; however Unions are still required to vote on the deal, with strikes still a potential if voters reject the terms.
China – Positive economic data released this morning show growth momentum picking up as Beijing rolled out stimulus measures, Bloomberg reports.
- Retail sales picked up due to a lower base of comparison and a surge in car sales on EV subsidies.
- Industrial production was supported by a spike in power production during August’s heatwave.
- On a less positive side, the property sector continued to struggle with home prices posting a stronger decline in August than in the previous month.
- House prices have now dropped every moth in the past year.
- Retails Sales (%yoy): 5.4 August v 2.7 July and 3.3 est.
- Industrial Production (%yoy): 4.2 August v 3.8 July and 3.8 est.
- FAI (%yoy): 5.8 August v 5.7 July and 5.5 est.
- New Home Price (%mom): -0.29 August v -0.11 July.
- Property Investment (YTD %yoy): -7.4 August v -6.4 July and -7.0 est.
- Residential Property Sales (YTD %yoy): -30.3 August v -31.4 July.
Chinese economy continues to struggle despite positive August economic data
- China’s urban jobless rate eased slightly to 5.3% and youth unemployment rates have fallen from record highs.
- Retail production, retail sales and investment in fixed assets all beat economist expectations last month. However, momentum continues to slow.
- Conversely, these boosts were in part represented by one-off rebounds following EV subsidies boosting retail sales from 2021 lows and heatwave-triggered electricity production boosting industrial output.
- China’s government continues to pressure local officials to crack down on covid infections pre-CCP National Congress.
- We expect an easing of Xi’s Zero-Covid policy following the National Congress next month.
- Domestic demand is weighing on China’s growth amid both the property rout and damaging covid restrictions.
- Economist growth forecasts for China have been slashed to 3.5%, significantly lower than Beijing’s official 5.5% target.
- Fixed-asset investment growth has jumped 15% yoy as local governments boost spending on the property sector the POBC slashes rates to further support growth.
- China’s property stimulus measures have helped support iron ore prices to maintain levels near the 5-year seasonal average.
- Chinese cement production has fallen 13.1% yoy but Aluminium production hit record levels in August.
Japan - Reuters Tankan survey fell to 10 for September vs 13 for August
UK - CPI rose a further 0.5% in August vs 0.6% in July and 9.9% yoy in August vs 10.1% in July
- Input PPI fell 1.2% in August vs 0% in July and 20.5% yoy in August vs 22.6% in July
- Output off 0.1% in August vs 1.6% in July and 16.1% yoy in August vs 17.1% in July
- Politicians will point to the direction of travel, though inflation is still wildly over BoE targets.
- While the see the BoE as largely impotent in its ability to control inflation without collapsing the economy, we also wonder if the establishment is happy to allow a short period of high inflation to inflate away the heavy burden government and household debt.
UK Retail sales collapsed in August as consumers pulled back spending amid soaring prices and high energy costs.
- Volumes of goods bought in the UK were down 1.6%mom last month reversing the small expansion in the previous month, FT reports.
- All main sectors registered a monthly decline.
- The GBP is off nearly 1% this morning against the US$ breaking the 1.14 mark and trading around 1.137.
- The £150bn government support energy package announced earlier in the month is expected to limit the blow from the recent increase in gas prices, although outlook remains weak with a potential recession unlikely to be avoided.
- Retail Sales (%mom): -1.6 August v 0.3 July and -0.5 est.
- Retail Sales ex Fuel (%mom): -1.6 August v 0.4 July and -0.7 est.
Germany – German government prepare to nationalise Rosneft (LSE:ROSN) oil refineries in Germany accounting for around 12% of German processing capacity (Bloomberg)
- The nationalisation of the Rosneft refineries will enable their operation using crude oil from non-Russian sources.
- The decision follows a similar move in April to put the subsidiary of Gazprom, Gazprom Germania, under the government trusteeship of the federal energy regulator.
- The operation of the refineries had been disrupted when Germany reduced crude imports from Russia.
- Gazprom Germania’s assets include Germany’s largest gas storage facility.
Major German metalworkers’ union IG Metall demands 8% wage increase for 2023
- One of Europe’s largest metalworker unions, IG Metall, is demanding worker wage hikes of 8% for next year.
- The move parallels a thematic development across Western economies of workers demanding higher wages in line with inflationary pressures.
- Wage hikes are set to feed into more long-term inflation alongside rising rental costs.
Peru - Indigenous communities block key copper transport route this week in protest over expansion of Antapaccay (Glencore)
- The route is also used by Las Bambas and Constancia (Hudbay)
Russia – Russian TV calls for Putin to form plan for nuclear attack against NATO
- Commentator on Russian TV calls for Russia to hold drills and practice scenarios in which Russian tactical nuclear weapons are used.
- The commentator also talks of NATO's nuclear blackmail.
South Africa – Biden to meet Cyril Ramaphosa to discuss Russia, the Ukraine, climate issues, trade etc… South Africa has remained neutral on invasion of Ukraine.
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Kazakhstan – The parliament voted in favour of amending the constitution limiting the president’s term to one seven year period and returning the capital its previous name, Astana.
Argentina – The central bank raised rates by 550bp to 75% yesterday aiming to bring inflation down that hit nearly 80% in August marking the fastest pace in 30 years.
Currencies
US$0.9996/eur vs 0.9961/eur yesterday. Yen 143.56/$ vs 143.76/$. SAr 17.612/$ vs 17.491/$. $1.142/gbp vs $1.152/gbp. 0.670/aud vs 0.676/aud. CNY 7.010/$ vs 6.969/$.
Dollar Index 109.91 / +0.15% on week
Commodity News
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,661/oz vs US$1,687/oz yesterday
Gold ETFs 99.1moz vs US$99.0moz yesterday
Platinum US$899/oz vs US$905/oz yesterday
Palladium US$2,101/oz vs US$2,137/oz yesterday
Silver US$19.04/oz vs US$19.36/oz yesterday
Rhodium US$14,200/oz vs US$14,200/oz yesterday
Base metals:
Copper US$ 7,688/t vs US$7,792/t yesterday
Aluminium US$ 2,279/t vs US$2,302/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 23,340/t vs US$24,225/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 3,127/t vs US$3,246/t yesterday
Lead US$ 1,903/t vs US$1,958/t yesterday
Tin US$ 20,900/t vs US$21,210/t yesterday
Energy:
Oil US$91.4/bbl vs US$94.0/bbl yesterday
Natural Gas US$8.297/mmbtu vs US$9.003/mmbtu yesterday
Uranium UXC US$50.85/lb vs US$51.20/lb yesterday
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$100.6/t vs US$101.9/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$581.9/t vs US$587.3/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$305.0/t vs US$305.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$436.0/t vs US$440.0/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$253.0/t vs US$258.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$51,955/t vs US$51,955/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$85,232/t vs US$86,459/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$69,255/t vs US$69,239/t
China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$5,310/t vs US$5,210/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,235/t vs US$1,230/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$327/t vs US$330/t
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$820/t vs US$820/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 7.3/lb vs US$7.3/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 30.95/kg vs US$31.25/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$325/t vs US$326/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$70.4/t vs US$70.2/kg
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$800.0/t vs US$800.0/t
Battery News
Li-Ion batteries – ‘LMFP’, a new cathode chemistry which adds manganese to lithium, iron and phosphate to increase power capacity by 15-20%
- The LMFP chemistry is reported to have entered qualification testing with a number of battery manufacturers.
- Manganese can be further blended into the cathodes in NCM ‘Nickel Cobalt Manganese’ batteries according to Ronbay and Shenzhen Dynanonic, Chinese cathode producers. (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence)
- The move is a natural progression for EV manufacturers who are looking for greater range and lower costs from battery packs.
- The addition of manganese into the li-ion cathode chemistry is reported to increase energy density and lower costs for NCM batteries through a reduction in the cobalt and nickel content.
- Reducing cobalt content is a major issue for battery manufacturers due to the uncertainty of ongoing supply and its high raw material cost.
- “Cost is the main driver for the development of LMFP,” Albert Li, a Benchmark analyst, said.
- LMFP batteries are reported to be already used for electric bicycles but are not yet in EVs
- Dynanonic, plans to ramp up LMFP capacity to 440,000tpa by 2025 from 265,000t of LFP cathode this year
Company News
(AfriTin Mining Ltd (AIM:ATM, OTC:AFTTF)) 4.95p, Mkt Cap £59m – Placing to progress Namibian project
- AfriTin Mining reports that it has negotiated a potential funding package that it says it would fully finance the Company's existing operations, including its expansion plans for the lithium and tantalum by-product development at the Uis Mine in Namibia.
- The total gross proceeds of the placing from the placing was US$12.8m resulting in aggregate gross proceeds from the Fundraising of US$22.8m.
- The placing was done at an 8% discount to the mid-market closing price on 15 September 2022.
- The funds allow AfriTin to accelerate to Phase 1B, which will look to introduce an ore sorting circuit on the tin and bring lithium and tantalum products on stream.
- Also, increasing throughput capacity, increasing tin recovery and expanding tin concentrate production.
- The company continues to progress its Phase 2 studies that will look to target production of up to 10 ktpa of tin concentrate
(Kavango Resources PLC (LSE:KAV, OTC:KVGOF)) 1.8p, Mkt cap £8m – interest in KCB JV taken to 90%
- Kavango reports that it has completed the acquisition of 65% of the LVR Joint Venture, taking Kavango’s holding to 90%.
- The Joint Venture incorporates prospecting licences PL082/2018 & PL 083/2018 on the Kalahari Copper Belt.
- The KCB stretches for 800km from central Namibia to northern Botswana, regarded as an under explored belt compared to that of the Zambia-DRC.
- The area remains under explored due to limited outcrops and 10-100m of sediment cover, although modern geophysical techniques are being used with some success in the region.
- As per the sale purchase agreement, Kavango will issue to LVR GeoExplorers 2,000,000 Ordinary Shares in Kavango and 2,000,000 warrants, exercisable at 8.5p per share for a period of two years.
- Kavango will carry LVR's 10% holding in the LVR JV through to Bankable Feasibility Study.
(Power Metal Resources PLC (AIM:POW)) 1.525p, Mkt Cap £23m – Geophysics completed ahead of drilling at Target 1-6
- Power Metal reports that it has completed a high-resolution ground magnetic geophysics survey completed over high priority Target 1-6.
- The survey covered a total area of covering an area of approximately 2,700m by 1,600m and indicated a strong east-west trending magnetic anomaly was identified near the southern edge of the survey area.
- The company interprets the magnetic inversions of this newly identified anomaly show that the magnetic body intersects the down dip extent of the southerly dipping EM conductor identified by the previously completed ground-based MLEM survey over T1-6.
- Following the surveys, the company has two priority drillholes planned for the target, with drill collar sites now being prepared and cleared in preparation for the programme start.
- Hole DDH1-6B will be located 530m directly south of drillhole KKME 1-6 and has a planned depth of 600m at an at 80° dip and 0° azimuth.
- DDH1-6B has been planned to intersect the southerly dipping conductor at a relatively shallow depth of 300m.
- Hole DDH1-6C will be located 830m directly south drillhole KKME 1-6 and has a planned depth of 650m at 80° dip and 0° azimuth.
- DDH1-6C is planned to test the intersection zone between the southerly dipping conductor and the newly identified strongly magnetic E-W trending body, which is estimated to be at a depth of approximately 350m.
- The company also comments that MLEM surveys are ongoing at target areas T1-3 and T2-3, and MLEM and Ground-Mag surveys are ongoing at target area T1-14.
*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Power Metal
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474
Joe Rowbottom – Joe.Rowbottom@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0486
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
SP Angel
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street London
W1S 2PP
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
Sources of commodity prices
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver - BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel - Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt - LME
Oil Brent - ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore - NYMEX
Thermal Coal - Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal - SSY
RRE - Steelhome
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite - Asian Metal
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SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return of less than 15%
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