SP Angel . Morning View . Thursday 15 09 22
Base metals rise on low inventories and refinery disruption
Gold slides lower as yields climb and investors shed ETF holdings
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Private Equity / joint venture opportunity
We have an exploration opportunity on a newly discovered copper / moly porphyry system with two adjacent non-porphyry gold and silver deposits over 6km in South-East Asia
- 2,000m in 8 holes already drilled with intersections of visible chalcopyrite and molybdenite both disseminated and in B-veins
- Positive indications of grade at shallow depths. Total funding $2.34m to date. Current implied valuation $4.4m. Best drill result:
- 60m grading 0.4% copper, 0.2% gold plus molybdenum from 24m eg. below the leached cap
- 3m grading 0.51% copper, 9.2g/t gold, and 49g/t silver from 64m down hole
- 2m grading 0.3% copper, 6% zinc and 9g/t gold, 40 g/t silver from 33m down hole related to a massive pyrite-magnetite-sphalerite-chalcopyrite vein
*SP Angel’s role is limited to making introductions and interested parties should be aware that investment in a private company can present certain risks not present in listed companies (e.g. limited or no liquidity and no rules compelling disclosure of information to investors). This offer is open to professional investors only and is not offered to retail investors.
(Anglo Asian Mining PLC (AIM:AAZ, OTC:AGXKF)) – Earnings supported by higher gold prices with 4c dividend recommended
(Galantas Gold Corp (AIM:GAL, TSX-V:GAL, OTC:GALKF)) – Mining contractor appointed for Joshua Vein development
(Oriole Resources PLC (AIM:ORR)) – Bibemi drilling demonstrates a second set of gold bearing veins
(Tertiary Minerals PLC (AIM:TYM)) – Exploration collaboration with First Quantum in Zambia
Gold slides lower as yields climb and investors shed ETF holdings
- Gold has moved down to the key $1,685/oz resistance.
- The increasing potential of a 100bp Fed hike next week following Tuesday’s US inflation data has knocked gold’s short-term rally.
- The dollar’s strength on the back of Powell’s expected hawkishness has added further downward pressure to precious metals.
- Gold ETF holdings have fallen for the 13th straight day and sit at the lowest level since Jan. 24th.
- A reversal in both real yields and the dollar’s current rally will provide a necessary tailwind to gold.
Zinc (US$ 3,246/t) prices rise in low stock levels and supply disruption
- Around half of all EU aluminium and zinc refining has been suspended on power prices and availability issues (Eurometaux).
- A number of Chinese aluminium smelters have also cut back due to low hydropower availability.
- The market is likely to turn towards the rebuilding of Ukraine once Russian forces are finally ejected.
- Russia is unlikely to want to pay for the damage their forces have inflicted though regime change in Russia may open the possibility of reparations,
LME nickel inventories fell 936 tonnes this week, most since July
- LME nickel stocks fell the most since the 27th of July to 52,464t this week, with the drop attributed to outflows from Rotterdam warehouses.
- Singapore and Taiwan also saw small decreases in inventories.
Dow Jones Industrials +0.10% at 31,135
Nikkei 225 +0.21% at 27,876
HK Hang Seng +0.37% at 18,916
Shanghai Composite -1.08% at 3,203
Economics
China - President Xi Jinping is due to meet Vladimir Putin in Uzbekistan today
- This is Xi’s first visit outside China since Covid started.
Container rates fall from China to the US as demand collapses for Chinese products
- The cost of shipping a 40 foot container has fallen 10% over the past week (SCMP)
Chinese ambassador to the US warns against cutting nation out of EV supply chain
- The ambassador warned against the potential risks of trying to cut the country off, making comments at the Detroit auto show this week.
- Qin Gang commented: “to decouple with China means to disconnect from the world’s largest market as well as the biggest opportunity”. He also said the interests of both nations are “intertwined”.
- Qin stressed the importance of global coordination and that all players should work in accordance with economic law.
- The comments come at a time when the Biden administration has recently stated that it will allow Trump-era tariffs on many Chinese imports to continue.
- The duties cover goods including industrial inputs such as microchips and chemicals.
Shanghai escapes major disruption from typhoon as strong winds and heavy rain die down
- Typhoon Muifa as passed Shanghai with ports, airports and rail resuming service.
- The storm was expected to be the largest to hit the region in 10-years but the key port area did not face extended disruption.
- 400,000 people were evacuation and minor flooding has been reported from Shanghai.
- Ningbo’s major port operations have resumed.
Indonesia exports hit record high on coal export surge
- Exports brought in $27.9bn last month, a record for August and a 30% increase YoY.
- Imports at $22.2bn, also a record high and up 33%.
- Indonesia earned $4.4bn from coal last month, with prices 110% higher YoY.
US – US commodity markets brace for US Rail Strike as coal-powered grid under threat
- US Nat Gas futures rallied 10% yesterday in expectations of a hit to coal deliveries triggered by the US Rail Strike.
- 22% of US electricity is coal powered, with is predominantly transferred by rail. Bloomberg estimate it would take 450 trucks to replace 1 train’s worth of coal.
- This will mark the first rail strike in 30 years.
- The US food supply will also be affected, with a rise in ethanol prices expected to feed into higher gasoline prices.
- Ethanol prices jumped c.6% yesterday.
- 125,000 workers are expected to strike unless a deal is met between freight-rail companies and unions by Friday.
- Congress is expected to intervene to prevent long-term freight delays.
- Rail operations are already facing both labour and equipment shortages, seeing waiting times at railway yards increasing to 2 days vs 1 day in January. (Bloomberg)
- Container rates have been sliding on easing Covid lockdowns in China, however US-based disruption could reverse this within the $47bn US-China supply chain.
- The strikes have the potential to further feed soaring US inflation with additional supply chain disruptions.
- They also reflect rising wage demands across developed economies in the face of inflationary pressures, expected to feed into longer-term core inflation.
France – Nuclear power production at EDF plants is at three decade lows at a critical time with more than half of the 56 reactors offline.
- The Company said that a number of sites have been put on maintenance after corrosion problems were discovered.
- Outages at EDF are estimated to translate into a €29bn hit to EBITDA numbers as the Company is forced to turn to wholesale markets to secure power.
UK – Consumer sentiment slips into negative territory for the first time since the pandemic lockdown in 2020 amid falling real incomes and tighter monetary policy conditions.
- YoGov Pls poll results showed the sentiment index dropped 4.2 points to 98.8 in August.
- Pessimism fed into outlook over the housing market, job security and the outlook for personal finances, Bloomberg writes.
- Although, the survey was done before PM announced her plan to help households amid rising energy costs.
UK government to scrap cap on banker bonuses
- The imposition of the cap was a political reaction to the damage caused by the miss-selling of US sub-prime mortgages.
- While the scandal damaged confidence between banks causing interbank lending to stall, the failure to rescue Lehman Bros. did far more damage to financial markets due to the chaos it created.
- Most bankers were not responsible or even aware of the development of the Sub-prime situation and were unfairly penalised, though their employers simply worked around the bonus cap with other longer-term incentive schemes many of which are now paying out.
Russia set to impose export duties on coal, local media reports
- Russian authorities are set to impose an export duty on coal in order to close the budget deficit, local news outlet Kommersant reports.
- Sources estimate that the mechanism will imply a cut-off price above which the duty becomes effective, with the size of the duty at current price levels at $9-10 per ton.
- Kommersant say analysts predict the duty will bring in an additional 100bn rubles per year.
- If introduced, the duty will put further pressure on Russian coal companies who are already suffering from the EU embargo.
- The embargo has forced producers to sell to the far east at a significant discount, as much as 70% according to the UMMC Director for Port and Railway Projects.
- Russian coal production is expected to fall 6% this year to 412mt.
- The government is discussing the parameters of the budget for next year which will be presented to Putin next week.
Currencies
US$0.9961/eur vs 0.9981/eur yesterday. Yen 143.76/$ vs 143.42/$. SAr 17.491/$ vs 17.425/$. $1.152/gbp vs $1.151/gbp. 0.676/aud vs 0.672/aud. CNY 6.969/$ vs 6.964/$.
DXY index 109.86 / +0.18% on week
Commodity News
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,687/oz vs US$1,702/oz yesterday
Gold ETFs 99.0moz vs US$99.2moz yesterday
Platinum US$905/oz vs US$889/oz yesterday
Palladium US$2,137/oz vs US$2,086/oz yesterday
Silver US$19.36/oz vs US$19.40/oz yesterday
Rhodium US$14,200/oz vs US$14,400/oz yesterday
Base metals:
Copper US$ 7,792/t vs US$7,828/t yesterday
Aluminium US$ 2,302/t vs US$2,296/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 24,225/t vs US$23,945/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 3,246/t vs US$3,225/t yesterday
Lead US$ 1,958/t vs US$1,946/t yesterday
Tin US$ 21,210/t vs US$21,030/t yesterday
Energy:
Oil US$94.0/bbl vs US$92.6/bbl yesterday
Natural Gas US$9.003/mmbtu vs US$8.360/mmbtu yesterday
Uranium UXC US$51.20/lb vs US$52.05/lb yesterday
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$101.9/t vs US$102.4/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$587.3/t vs US$587.7/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$305.0/t vs US$300.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$440.0/t vs US$428.0/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$258.0/t vs US$256.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$51,955/t vs US$51,955/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$86,459/t vs US$86,513/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$69,239/t vs US$69,282/t
China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$5,210/t vs US$5,210/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,230/t vs US$1,232/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$330/t vs US$333/t
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$820/t vs US$820/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 7.3/lb vs US$7.3/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 31.25/kg vs US$31.25/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$326/t vs US$327/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$70.2/t vs US$70.3/kg
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$800.0/t vs US$800.0/t
Battery News
China’s Ganfeng to hike battery prices on soaring raw material costs
- China’s lithium giant Ganfeng’s unit Xinyu is raising prices for small batteries used in consumer electronics.
- The unit provides small polymer lithium batteries.
- It cites a ‘huge increase’ in the cost of lithium carbonate, cobalt, and graphite.
- The move follows a reversal in battery metal prices in August after a minor weakening, with upward rallies now resuming.
- The announcement contradicts Tesla’s recent statement regarding a massive improvement in battery supply chains.
TotalEnergies moves to build 2GW Offshore wind plant in Poland
- TotalEnergies, alongside KGHM is set to build either 1 large 2GW offshore wind project or 2 smaller ones.
- The company filed for 7 Baltic Sea licenses with total capacity of 10GW – 2 of these are expected to be awarded permits soon.
Chilean lithium giant SQM plans $1.5bn investment in freshwater-free lithium extraction project
- SQM’s investment will focus on freshwater-free lithium extraction in the Salar Futuro.
- SQM are aiming to boost lithium carbonate and hydroxide production from lithium chlorides by over 5%.
- The company is hoping to further progress its desalination plant and ramp up evaporation technologies.
- SQM hopes to target a total extraction of 822 l/s of brines pa, down 50% from its current authorized pump quota to 2030.
- Renewable energy investment is also planned for the project.
Company News
(Anglo Asian Mining PLC (AIM:AAZ, OTC:AGXKF)) 72p, Mkt Cap £82m – Earnings supported by higher gold prices with 4c dividend recommended
BUY
- Production amounted to 28.8koz GE (H1/21: 32.2koz) with lower processed grades accounting for a decline in output.
- Production includes 20.9koz gold, 1.3kt copper and 99koz silver (H1/21: 24.2koz / 1.3kt / 79koz).
- Gold bullion sales totalled 11.3koz (H1/21: 19.6koz), net of 12.75% PSA share, at an average realised gold price of $1,901/oz (H1/21: $1,776/oz).
- The Company held 7.2koz in unsold gold valued at ~$12m using spot prices, up on 1.8koz as of FY21.
- Concentrate sales generated $9.8 (H1/21: $8.5m), net of 12.75% PSA, from the sale of 9.1kt (H1/21: 8.4kt).
- Total sales amounted to $31.5m (H1/21: $43.5m) reflecting lower gold dore sales volumes.
- AISC averaged $983/oz (H1/21: $848/oz) reflecting lower production as well as higher costs for power (+11%yoy), consumables (grinding balls, in particular) and fuel offset by lower cyanide costs driven by the changing composition of the ore feedstock.
EBITDA climbed to $14.4m (H1/21: $14.0m) implying 45% EBITDA margins (H1/21: 32%) reflecting higher commodity prices.
- PAT was little changed at $3.5m (H1/21: $3.6m) taking EPS to 3.0c (H1/21: 3.1c).
- FCF amounted to -$-13.2m (H1/21: -$0.4m) reflecting a working capital charge of -$17.2m (H1/21: -$0.8m) on the back of an increase in unsold gold dore and copper concentrate inventories.
- Capital expenditure amounted to $7.2m (H1/21: $6.1m) including $4.8m spent at Gedabek on deferred stripping, new heap leach pad construction, equipment and mine development costs as well as $2.4m spent in exploration costs at Gedabek, Gosha, Ordubad and Vejnaly.
- Closing cash balance was $21.2m (FY21: $37.5m) and the Company remained debt free excluding $3.1m in leases.
- The Board recommended an interim dividend of 4c equivalent to $4.6m payment and implying ~10% annualised dividend yield with an ex-dividend date set at 29 September.
- FY22 production guidance is for 54-58koz GE including 40-43koz gold and 2.4-2.5kt copper with contribution from Vejnaly and Hasan expected to see annual output coming at the upper end of the guidance range.
- Production at Hasan and Vejnaly is due to start before the end of the year with processed material volumes to ramp up in 2023.
- Zafar is expected to come online next year delivering polymetallic ore for the flotation plant with development costs estimated at ~$15m.
- Furthermore, the Company highlighted securing three new mining concessions earlier in July expanding existing land package ~50% to ~2,500 sq km and representing a transformational deal underpinning the Company’s strategic target to transition into a mid-tier copper focused producer.
Conclusion: Interims reflect lower sales volumes but report higher earnings margins driven by stronger realised gold prices. The Board recommended 4c interim dividend little changed from the previous year and extending the Company’s dividend paying record. The team is working on adding new ore sources to feed the Gedabek processing complex with Hasan, Vejnaly and Zafar guided to start contributing to production over the next 3-12 months. Meanwhile, the Company is assessing the potential of newly secured license areas that are expected to support the Company’s strategy to become a mid-tier copper producer.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Anglo Asian Mining
(Galantas Gold Corp (AIM:GAL, TSX-V:GAL, OTC:GALKF)) 33.5p, Mkt Cap £35m – Mining contractor appointed for Joshua Vein development
- Galantas reports that QME Limited have been appointed as a mining contractor to develop the access and exploration drives to the Joshua Vein at its Omagh Gold Project in Northern Ireland.
- QME are based in Ireland and undertake contract mining projects in Ireland and abroad.
- Previous clients include New Boliden Tara Mines, where they completed 14km of development mining and installation of underground services.
- They also work at the Saint Gobian Gyproc Drummond Mine, Monaghan and Dalradian Gold’s Curraghinalt Project with previous clients including Lundin Mining and Barrick Gold.
- QME will complete 600m of underground development from January 2023 to May 2023, followed by access drives to two mining levels at the Joshua Vein in Q3 2023.
- The company has completed approximately 2,500m of development and is now ready to begin production on the Kearney vein at its Cavanacaw Mine.
- Development ore from the underground operation has been successfully run through the existing surface processing plant, that produces a gold concentrate using conventional froth flotation without the use of cyanide or mercury.
Conclusion: Galantas continue to make strong progress at Cavanacaw and is now ready to begin production on the Kearney Vein, while assay results from the ongoing 4,000m underground drill programme continue to yield exciting results. We also note that the company recently completed an equity raise for gross proceeds of C$6.9m in order to achieve its key short-term goal of getting the mine into steady state production.
*SP Angel acts as broker to Galantas Gold
(Oriole Resources PLC (AIM:ORR)) – 0.18p, Mkt cap £3.4m – Bibemi drilling demonstrates a second set of gold bearing veins
- Oriole Resources has released results from its 531.3m, six-hole, phase 4 drilling programme at the 90% owned Bibemi prospect in Cameroon.
- The company says that the results “prove the existence of multiple grade-bearing, sub-horizontal veins in addition to the previously tested sub-vertical veins”.
- CEO, Tim Livesey, explained that “At Bakassi Zone 1, the vertical hole BBDD050 was designed to test for gold mineralisation in sub-horizontal extensional quartz veins. These sub-horizontal veins are in addition to the already proven sub-vertical quartz-tourmaline veins, and as such they offered the opportunity to significantly increase the volume of mineralisation by creating a lattice-work of mineralisation”.
- Hole BBDD-050, which was drilled vertically, intersected multiple mineralised horizons including:
- An intersection of 4.3m at an average grade of 3.33g/t gold from a depth of 53.30m; and
- 5.50m at an average grade of 1.80g/t gold from 66m depth; and
- 14.80m averaging 4.27g/t gold from 104.30m and including a 5.00m section from 109.00m which averaged 10.22g/t; and
- 7.70m averaging 2.74g/t gold from 132.10m depth with an additional single metre at 141.80m which assayed 17.01g/t gold; and
- 9.60m at an average grade of 1.11g/t gold from 148.70m depth.
- Additional results reported in today’s announcement include intersections of 3.00m at an average grade of 1.17g/t gold from 41.70m and of 8.00m averaging 1.06g/t from 65.30m depth both in hole BBDD-052.
- Hole BBDD-053 located on the Lawa East prospect intersected 3.00m averaging 12.30g/t from a depth of 58m and hole BBDD-054 intersected a single metre, from a depth of 37.00m, assaying 6.52g/t gold.
- The company also deepened hole BBDD-034, which was drilled during the Phase 2 programme recording an additional 2m wide intersection averaging 39.42g/t from a depth of 160.00m and including a single metre assaying 75.36g/t gold from 161.00m.
- Oriole Resources explains that the extension of BBDD-034 “was completed to test the down-dip continuity of shear-related veining that returned 2.50m grading 8.90 g/t Au in Phase 3-hole BBDD045”.
- Explaining that the identification of the additional vein set offers “the potential at Bakassi Zone 1 to composite the vein sets, in order to create wider zones of gold mineralisation that could be considered economic for open pit or underground bulk mining methods” Mr. Livesey said that Oriole Resources “will continue to refine our geological and grade models and report back to the market as we progress our work as the dry season begins during Q4 this year”.
- In our opinion, the high grades seen in some of the intersections reported today may hint at the possibility of enriched shoots but we consider that substantial resource drilling will be required to establish the viability of that hypothesis and it appears that the company is focussed on establishing sufficient tonnage to support bulk mining.
Conclusion: The identification of a second mineralised vein set at Bibemi provides the potential to build resource tonnage more quickly than would be expected for the original sub-vertical vein set alone.
(Tertiary Minerals PLC (AIM:TYM)) – 0.18p, Mkt cap £1.7m – Exploration collaboration with First Quantum in Zambia
- Tertiary Minerals has announced an exploration collaboration agreement with First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FQM) in Zambia.
- The agreement establishes a Technical Committee to oversee the continuing exploration of Tertiary Minerals’ Mukai project which is situated adjacent to First Quantum’s Trident project containing the Sentinel copper and the Enterprise nickel mines.
- At this stage, no commercial terms relating to the agreement have been disclosed and we assume that the agreement relates solely to technical issues with the jointly run “Technical Committee … [advising and assisting] … Tertiary in relation to all technical matters relating to the Projects”.
- The agreement also includes the Mushima North exploration licence, which is located in the Kasempa District, in an area actively being explored by First Quantum for IOCG (iron-oxide-copper-gold) type deposits.
- Under the agreement, “FQM will provide Tertiary with all of its historical exploration data for the two licence areas and Tertiary will submit its exploration results to the Technical Committee on an ongoing basis”.
- Welcoming the collaboration with First Quantum, Executive Chairman, Patrick Cheetham, explained that “the Agreement does not bind either company to any further agreement or grant FQM any first rights of refusal and so is not commercially restrictive for Tertiary”.
- He said, however, that it would accelerate the exploration of the licences as a result of access to “FQM's extensive and in-depth country experience, gained over many years of exploration and mine development in Zambia and, importantly, its site-specific historical exploration in and around these two exciting projects”.
Conclusion: The collaboration with First Quantum provides Tertiary Minerals with access to the resources, relevant exploration data and technical expertise of an industry major with specific knowledge of the geological context of its Zambian exploration licences. We await further news as the exploration advances.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474
Joe Rowbottom – Joe.Rowbottom@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0486
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
SP Angel
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
Sources of commodity prices
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver -BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel - Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt - LME
Oil Brent - ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore - NYMEX
Thermal Coal - Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal - SSY
RRE - Steelhome
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite - Asian Metal
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