SP Angel . Morning View . Thursday 25 08 22
Gold prices move higher as dollar slips ahead of US economic data
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Amur Minerals Corporation (AIM:AMC, OTC:AMMCF)* – Investors vote to accept recommended offer of $35m for the Kun Manie Project
Anglo Pacific Group PLC (LSE:APF, TSX:APY, OTC:AGPIF) – Interim results
Great Western Mining Corporation PLC (AIM:GWMO) – Progress report on Nevada projects
GoldStone Resources (AIM:GRL)* – AGM comments
Kenmare Resources plc (LSE:KMR) – Appointment of finance director
Rio Tinto PLC (LSE:RIO) – Increased cash offer for Turquoise Hill
Rockfire Resources PLC (LSE:ROCK) – Metallurgical test results from the Molaoi zinc project
Savannah Resources PLC (AIM:SAV, ETR:SAV, OTC:SAVNF)* – Interim CEO details project’s path to sustainability
Gold prices move higher as dollar slips ahead of US economic data
- Gold prices continued to recover this morning on a weaker US dollar, rising 0.7% vs USD slipping 0.4%.
- Expect the dollar to take cues on US jobless claims released later today.
- If data shows the US labour market is holding up despite rising rates, the dollar should strengthen which is bearish for gold.
- Fed Chief Jerome Powell is due to speak later today, with any inclination of rate hikes slowing likely to weaken the dollar and send gold prices higher.
- Gold prices are now up 1.6% so far for the week, at $1,764/oz.
Zinc - Boliden declared force majeure on zinc deliveries from it’s Odda smelter in Norway which is hit by strike action and may also be affected by low hydropower
We expect many European smelters and refineries to sell their power back to their suppliers for a significant profit
Dow Jones Industrials +0.18% at 32,969
Nikkei 225 +0.58% at 28,479
HK Hang Seng +3.26% at 19,898
Shanghai Composite +0.97% at 3,246
Economics
US - Durable goods orders came in at 2.2% in July vs +2.2%
- Ex transport 0.3% in July vs 0.3% in June
- Pending home sales -1% in July vs -8.6% in June and -19.9% yoy in July vs -20% in June
China – Hydropower shortage continues to disrupt post-lockdown recovery in China
- Q2 growth contracted by 13.7% in Shanghai on Covid lockdowns, Shanghai GDP was US$583bn in 2021 (SCMP)
- Seven days of >40C heat also slowed growth as high temperatures and drought conditions hit hydropower supply.
- The city cut lighting and other services to conserve power for industry and for household use (airconditioning).
- Shanghai is home to around 25m people and 2.67m businesses.
- The city has also ordered a halt to outdoor work between 11am-3pm on days where temperatures are >35C.
- Further blackouts in Shanghai are seen as potentially devastating for the automotive and semiconductor sectors.
Sichuan province: >1mt pa aluminium smelting capacity idled due to collapse of hydropower production in drought conditions
- Sichuan province generated some 82% of its electrical power from hydro dams
- The province also processes around 20% of Chinese lithium production
1 trillion Yuan more stimulus earmarked for infrastructure spending
- China has stepped up its stimulus with a further 1 trillion ($146bn) focused on infrastructure – although this is likely to be largely immaterial given the scale of the crisis.
- The State council outlined a 19-point policy package on Wednesday, offering 300bn uan that state policy banks can invest in infrastructure projects, on top of 300bn already announced at June-end.
- Local governments will also be allocated 500bn yuan of special bonds from previously unused quotas.
- Investors are pricing in almost $130bn in losses on Chinese property developers’ dollar debt, the Ft reported yesterday.
- Two-thirds of the more than 500 outstanding dollar bonds issued by Chinese developers are now priced below 70 cents on the dollar.
Japan – Seen restarting idled nuclear power plants as energy costs rise and availability becomes an issue.
- Hydropower is the second most important renewable energy source in Japan after solar with some 50GW of installed capacity
- Japan is also suffering drought conditions in the south
- A Japanese research team recently declard a first-of-its-kind global forecast warning of severe droughts lasting five years or more before the end of the century.
US - Biden to cancel $10,000 in student loan debt for borrowers earning less than $125,000pa
- Biden is expected to cancel $10,000 worth of student debt per student on Wednesday. The plan is expected to be delayed by legal challenges.
Germany – Ifo business confidence fell in August, although beats estimates
- The Ifo Institute’s gauge of business expectations for the next six months at 80.3 for August vs 80.4 in July and 79.0 expected.
- Uncertainty remains high as Germany tries to wean itself off Russian gas while energy prices continue to rise.
Ghana – $3.2bn railway upgrade agreement signed
- Ghana has signed the agreement with Thelo DB consultum and TRranstech Consult Ltd to upgrade the country’s Western Corridor railway line.
- The project will facilitate the transportation of both passengers and freight, including mineral resources.
- Ghana’s Western Corridor stretches 339km although only 66km is currently operational.
UK – consumers cut spending as inflation worries remain
- British consumers' spending on credit and debit cards fell by 4ppts over the week to Aug. 18, according to the ONS.
Edinburgh Fringe festival ‘DAVE’ award winning joke
- “I tried to steal spaghetti from the shop, but the female guard saw me and I couldn’t get pasta.“ (comedian Masai Graham)
- We are guessing that was the only woke acceptable joke going at this year’s festival.
Currencies
US$1.0015/eur vs 0.9953/eur yesterday. Yen 136.51/$ vs 136.79/$. SAr 16.857/$ vs 17.018/$. $1.185/gbp vs $1.182/gbp. 0.698/aud vs 0.691/aud. CNY 6.847/$ vs 6.865/$.
US Dollar index – 108.10 / -0.53% on week
Commodity News
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,764/oz vs US$1,747/oz yesterday
Gold ETFs 100.2moz vs US$100.4moz yesterday
Platinum US$888/oz vs US$879/oz yesterday
Palladium US$2,074/oz vs US$1,982/oz yesterday
Silver US$19.38/oz vs US$19.08/oz yesterday
Rhodium US$13,950/oz vs US$13,950/oz yesterday
Base metals:
Copper US$8,080/t vs US$8,085/t yesterday
Aluminium US$ 2,433/t vs US$2,438/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 21,354/t vs US$21,745/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 3,559/t vs US$3,480/t yesterday
Lead US$ 1,988/t vs US$1,959/t yesterday
Tin US$ 24,505/t vs US$24,400/t yesterday
Energy:
Oil US$101.6/bbl vs US$100.2/bbl yesterday
Crude oil prices edged higher on mounting supply tightness concerns as the EIA reported a 3.3mb draw on oil stockpiles, driven my crude and product exports.
Norway’s energy minister said it would maintain its current high gas volumes (122bcm expected in FY22) until the end of the decade in support of Europe’s plans to ditch Russian imports over its invasion of Ukraine.
UK gas production in 1H22 rose 26% compared to the same period last year to 16.8bcm, supplying half of the country's gas needs, driven by the start-up of new gas fields in the Southern North Sea.
Natural Gas US$9.296/mmbtu vs US$9.311/mmbtu yesterday
Uranium UXC US$49.30/lb vs US$49.00/lb yesterday
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$102.9/t vs US$101.3/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$613.1/t vs US$611.5/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif A RA) US$312.0/t vs US$308.0/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$315.0/t vs US$296.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$51,955/t vs US$49,455/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$92,740/t vs US$92,864/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$69,445/t vs US$69,265/t
China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$4,840/t vs US$4,840/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,227/t vs US$1,220/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$333/t vs US$333/t
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$815/t vs US$815/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 7.3/lb vs US$7.3/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 31.75/kg vs US$31.75/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$344/t vs US$343/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$88.8/t vs US$88.8/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$900.0/t vs US$900.0/t
Battery News
California to ban new gasoline cars by 2035
- California will look to ban the sale of new gasoline cars by 2035
- State regulators are expected to approve the plan to phase out the sale of gas-powered cars over the next 13 years, in a vote today.
- The vote comes two years after Californian state governor Gavin Newsom, issued an executive order requiring the sale of new cars to be zero-emission.
- In 2021, only 12% of new cars sold in California were zero-emission, according to the California Air Resources Board – the new rule would require the state reach 35% of sales by 2026, 68% by 2030 and 100% by 2035.
- California is the largest auto market in the US and more than a dozen other states typically follow California’s lead when setting their own auto emissions standards.
Mercedes set to lead India’s luxury EV market
- Mercedes-Benz has plans to take pole position in India's luxury electric vehicle market.
- The German automaker will launch three new EVs in India this year, will also look to assemble a luxury EV and set up a fast-charge network in the country.
- The company might also manufacture batteries domestically in the future, according to CEO of Mercedes-Benz India, Martin Schwenk.
- Mercedes' inroads come as rival Tesla recently put plans to enter India on hold due to high import taxes on EVs.
NIO developing multiple battery technologies in-house
- Following the Q1 earning report in June, NIO founder and CEO, William Lee confirmed that the company will make batteries in house.
- According to local media reports, the Chinese automaker is developing lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) and 4680-type cylindrical batteries in-house.
- NIO has a battery team of more than 400 people to research areas including battery materials, cells, and battery management systems to fully establish battery system development and industrialisation capabilities.
- The company is hoping to put its new battery pack into production in 2024, which will support 800V high-voltage fast charging, according to Li.
Company News
Amur Minerals Corporation (AIM:AMC, OTC:AMMCF)* 1.2p, Mkt Cap £16.9m – Investors vote to accept recommended offer of $35m for the Kun Manie Project
- Amur Minerals report the voting of 93.76% of all votes cast in favour of the $35m cash offer for the Kun Maine nickel project in the Amur region of Russia.
- The vote follows an earlier rejection of a previous offer of US$105m of staged payments by 73% of the vote at a General Meeting on 25th May.
- The current, accepted and recommended offer the Kun Manie sulphide nickel/copper project should result in $35m being paid upon completion of the transaction.
- The transaction is recommended by the Board and also requires approval from a newly created Russian official commission in change of western held assets and the Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia.
- Management plan to pay a special dividend of 1.8p (~$30m) to its shareholders within 90 days of Completion.
- The offeror, Bering Metals, is a Russian incorporate Company controlled by Vladislav Sviblov who previously bid for the Company in May/22.
- Under the previous offer, Stanmix Holding Ltd, controlled by Sviblov, offered to pay $105m over a period of 15 years with $15m coming on completion, $10m within 12m of completion, $50m within 48m of completion following by ten $3m annual payments commencing in 2027.
- Amur Minerals is looking to acquire another company or business within the next six months.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Amur Minerals
Anglo Pacific Group PLC (LSE:APF, TSX:APY, OTC:AGPIF) 142p, Mkt Cap £305m – Interim results
- Anglo Pacific report a record contribution from its portfolio companies of $92.8m in H1 2022.
- The contribution is 303% higher than the $23.9m reported for Hq 2021 and the $85.6m for the whole of FY 2021.
- EPS rose to 28.08c/s
- Dividend: the next quarterly dividend will be 1.75p .
- Net debt was reduced to $20.5m at end June but has since increased to $49.8m at end July due to the acquisition of a portfolio of advanced development stage royalties from South32.
- Brazilian Nickel, a former SP Angel client, announced first nickel production from the small scale 1,000tpa PNP1000 plant at the Piauí nickel and cobalt project in Brazil.
- We had previously advised Brazil Nickel to start off with the pilot plant to de-risk the nickel production and recovery process before scaling up to the larger, proposed 20,000tpa plant.
- Anglo Pacific’s Kestrel coking coal royalty in Australia saw a massive 638% increase in payments to $70.9m as coal and energy prices soared.
- Voisey’s Bay also saw a 348% increase in its royalty contribution to $13.9m for the first half.
- Royalty and stream income rose 401% to $90.7m with a further $2.5m coming in from royalty related revenues..
Great Western Mining Corporation PLC (AIM:GWMO) 0.13p, Mkt Cap £4.8m – Progress report on Nevada projects
- Great Western Mining has provided a progress report on its Nevada projects including plans to reprocess waste from old mine workings and on its recent drilling activities comprising a total of 2,798m over 24 holes.
- Plans for the reprocessing of old precious-metals bearing mine waste, where the initial phase is expected to use “gravity separation, followed by a contained leaching operation for tailings” has progressed with the appointment of a project manager and the completion of the first stage of the plant design.
- The company expects to submit an application to the State authorities “to construct and operate the mill” following an independent review and certification of the design “in the coming weeks”.
- Great Western Mining confirms that the “mill and associated facilities will have sufficient capacity to accommodate all known mining waste on claims held by the joint venture partners, with excess capacity to handle any additional material acquired from third parties in the area”.
- Chairman, David Hall, expressed frustration at delays in securing assay results from the drilling, but said that “Results are expected to start arriving in September and will be announced when available.”
- Mr. Hall did, however, comment that the “drilling programme was conducted effectively, on time and under budget with encouraging signs of mineralisation”.
- Future exploration plans will be developed following the results.
- The company also confirms the completion of a “land reclamation programme covering the Rock House group, the Black Mountain group and the Olympic Gold Project” in August and explains that “There are strict limits on how much ground may be disturbed at any one time for exploration and, by restoring drill sites to their original condition, Great Western is fulfilling its obligations under surface management regulations while freeing up potential acreage for a 2023 drilling programme”.
GoldStone Resources (AIM:GRL)* 6.25p, Mkt Cap £30.2m – AGM comments
TP – Under Review
- GoldStone held its AGM yesterday in London, where all resolutions were duly passed.
- Guidance: The Company remains confident it will hit its guidance of 14,000oz this year.
- Recoveries: Performance is improving with experience, with agglomeration issues on pad 1 & 2 however pad 3 has now been stacked and GoldStone are confident that it should be moving higher towards 82% as stated in the DEP.
- Costs: The company estimates that costs have increased 5-10% because of rising fuel prices, with AISC currently at $1,100/oz.
- Exploration: Drilling has commenced at Akrokeri, with 18 holes planned to test the vein-hosted mineralisation. Assay results are expected in two months.
*SP Angel acts as broker to GoldStone Resources (AIM:GRL). An SP Angel analyst has visited GoldStone’s operations in Ghana.
Kenmare Resources plc (LSE:KMR) 446p, Mkt Cap £423m – Appointment of finance director
- Kenmare Resources reports the appointment of Tom Hickey as Finance Director to replace Tony McCluskey who is to retire from the Board on 26th September although he will remain available to facilitate the hand-over to Mr. Hickey.
- Tom Hickey holds “a Bachelor of Commerce degree and a Diploma in Professional Accounting, both from University College Dublin, and he is a Fellow of the Irish Institute of Chartered Accountants” and is described as having “strong Board-level experience, currently serving as an Independent Non-Executive Director with United Oil & Gas PLC (AIM:UOG) (“UOG”) and previously as an Independent Non-Executive Director with Petroneft Resources PLC (AIM:PTR, OTC:PNFTF) (“Petroneft”)”.
- He “brings significant financial and natural resources experience to Kenmare, having served for 15 years as Executive Director of various public companies. This includes eight years as Chief Financial Officer of the African and South American-focused oil and gas producer Tullow Oil PLC (LSE:TLW) … from 2000 to 2008 … [where he] … was central to the success of major acquisitions and debt and equity fundings, as well as responsible for capital allocation of an annual budget of over $700 million”.
- Managing Director, Michael Carvill, said he was “delighted to welcome Tom to Kenmare’s management team. He is a well-known figure in the natural resources industry and his extensive financial, strategic and capital markets experience will be highly complementary to our current executive capabilities”.
- He also paid tribute to the outgoing finance director thanking him for his contribution over 31 years and saying that “He will be deeply missed by his friends and colleagues within the Company and we are grateful that he will work closely with Tom over the coming months to ensure a smooth transition”.
Rio Tinto PLC (LSE:RIO) – 4,996p, Mkt cap £61.6bn – Increased cash offer for Turquoise Hill
- Yesterday afternoon, Rio Tinto announced an increase in its all-cash offer to acquire the 49% share of Turquoise Hill which it does not already own in a move to simplify ownership of the Oyu Tolgoi project in Mongolia.
- Rio Tinto is improving its initial C$34/share to holders of Turquoise Hill by around 18% to C$40/share increasing its original US$2.7bn offer to approximately US$3.1bn.
- Turquoise Hill owns 66% of the project and at a price US$3.1bn for 49% of Turquoise Hill, Rio Tinto’s offer implies a value of approximately US$9.6bn for the entire Oyu Tolgoi project.
- Chief Executive, Jakob Stausholm, said that “Rio Tinto believes this offer not only provides full and fair value for Turquoise Hill shareholders, but is in the best interests of all stakeholders as we work to move the Oyu Tolgoi project forward”.
- Describing its new offer as reflecting “full and fair value for the Turquoise Hill minority shareholders” Rio Tinto’s announcement points out that since it “made its initial proposal on 14 March 2022, the average share price performance of Turquoise Hill’s peers has declined 35% in light of a deteriorating and more uncertain external environment. Furthermore, Turquoise Hill has disclosed in its latest earnings results that it needs to raise equity proceeds of more than US$1 billion to address its current estimate of funding requirements”.
- The original and the latest offers follow the announcement, in January, of agreement between Rio Tinto, Turquoise Hill and the Government of Mongolia to proceed with the US$6.9bn development of the underground mine in a move which is expected to make Oyu Tolgoi the world’s 4th largest copper mine by 2030 with lowest quartile cash operating costs.
Rockfire Resources PLC (LSE:ROCK) 0.39p, Mkt Cap £4.1m – Metallurgical test results from the Molaoi zinc project
- Rockfire Resources has released results from preliminary metallurgical testing of material from the Molaoi zinc project in Greece which it acquired in May.
- The tests used “composite samples from Molaoi core which have been blended to produce an "industry average" grade … [of] … 5.9% Zn and 1.6% Pb”.
- Recovery rates of 89% for zinc; and 74% for lead were achieved with flotation producing concentrates grading 57% zinc and 117g/t germanium and almost 64% lead with 856g/t silver, 2.62% copper and 0.52g/t gold.
- Further testing continues with “a much higher average grade composite sample of 18.9% Zn and 4.5% Pb, which Rockfire management believes may be closer to the ultimate feed head grade, based on drilling at Molaoi” and “More definitive testing will be initiated using core obtained from the planned diamond drilling later in the year. This work will include crushing, milling and abrasion work indices”.
- CEO, David Price, said that “Future tests will include a locked (closed) cycle and optimisation of the conditions used for the concentration process. Rockfire's metallurgical consultants expect the recoveries of each metal to further improve with more test work, which is planned”.
Savannah Resources PLC (AIM:SAV, ETR:SAV, OTC:SAVNF)* 2.7p, Mkt Cap £46m – Interim CEO details project’s path to sustainability
BUY – 17.9p
- Interim CEO has detailed options to reduce carbon emissions at its Barroso Lithium Project in Portugal in an interview with Mining Weekly.
- Mr Ferguson commented: “We are continually exploring options for reducing our Scope 3 emissions, which will include encouraging our partners to use low- or zero-carbon-emitting vehicles to transport spodumene from the project”.
- Savannah has announced partnerships with European groups such as Quadrante, Ecoprogresso and ABB, with Ecoprogresso’s carbon dioxide emissions study in the EIA released in March 2020.
- The company intend to use renewable energy coupled with battery storage, along with renewable power purchase agreements.
- Equipment used at the operation will be electric where possible, or powered by biofuel or green hydrogen.
- Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente ('APA'), the Portugal’s environmental regulator, notified the Company that the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) will need to be further optimised and application resubmitted under Article 16 of local regulations.
- Under regulations, the Company will now have six months to work together with APA to optimise physical aspects of the Project and associated environment, ecology and socio-economic considerations.
*SP Angel act as Nomad to Savannah Resources
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
Sources of commodity prices
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver - BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel - Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt - LME
Oil Brent - ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore - NYMEX
Thermal Coal - Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal - SSY
RRE - Steelhome
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite - Asian Metal
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