Headlines this week have been all about UK inflation hitting a 40-year high, but new research from George Saravelos at Deutsche Bank suggests that already the global tide might turning.
Several weeks ago the broker noted that orders to stock have collapsed in manufacturing, commodity prices outside of Europe have moved lower while many supply chain metrics have significantly improved.
These trends have continued, he adds, with producer prices turning down and most notably in China where they have turned sharply negative month on month.
US imported goods prices are also falling, which will be a key determinant of core goods inflation in the coming months.
A peak in core goods inflation is significant for two reasons, says Saravelos.
“First, goods markets are globally integrated, so a peak in goods inflation is relevant for all economies.
"Second, goods inflation is highly cyclical and has been a far bigger driver of inflation variation than services both in this cycle and before.”
It's a messy picture, he adds, especially with European energy process still rising and services and inflation expectations in many countries moving uncomfortably higher.
Even so, the peak in global goods inflation and potential shift to disinflation is a material development, he says.
“It will offer important downside relief to headline CPI numbers," something that would be cheered by households, businesses and politicians alike.