How much pain is heading the way of builders’ merchants as materials cost pressures build and the housing market slows?
Not as much as the market thinks believe the analysts at Citibank, who argue the market has already priced in a much tougher recession than might prove to be the case.
Shares across the sector are down 30% this year on average based on an expected sharp slowdown in 2023.
Citi though suggests that the hit to earnings will be much less severe at a magnitude of around 10-20%.
Travis Perkins (LSE:TPK) and Grafton, for example, are trading close to trough levels it says, reflecting a severe downturn and arguably the risk-reward looks attractive here.
Howdens, too, is a buy underpinned by its competitive strengths though it might struggle if things really did cut up rough.
SIG is rated as 'neutral' given the limited headroom on its balance sheet.
Travis Perkins eased 0.7% to 935.8p with Grafton flat at 828.6p.