Tuesday brings the UK’s latest jobs figures, with wage growth again the key number to watch.
Wage growth reached 6.2% in May, or 4.3% excluding bonuses, and is forecast to ease to 5.2% and 4.4% respectively in June.
As consumer price inflation in June surged to its highest level in 40 years of 9.4%, this means real wages will have continued to fall
Unemployment is seen remaining at 3.8% for the three months to June. In May job vacancies stood at 1.3mln and the employment rate was 75.9%, a fraction below the pre-pandemic peaks.
Danni Hewson, AJ Bell financial analyst, noted: “That all looks very encouraging given the gloomy tone of most economic commentary.
“However, we must remember that employment data is backwards-looking, given the lead times between firms feeling confident enough to hire and then to go through the lengthy process of finding the right candidate.
“If we do start to see a softening of the jobs market – and the quoted recruitment consultants have yet to flag any such trend – you might perhaps expect to see it in the vacancy figure first.
“Indeed, some economists are arguing that any downturn could be a shallow one as the huge vacancies figure will drop first before firms get around to letting go of any staff.”
Mining titan BHP dominates the company results with full-year numbers that will be released tonight in Australia and in the UK in the morning.
What it says about future dividends after the huge payouts recently will give a good as steer as anything about the mood of the miners (read more).
Investors in Watches of Switzerland will be hoping record trading from the past year continues when it posts first-quarter results on Tuesday.
At its full-year results in early July, the FTSE 250 group posted its highest ever sales and profits, with revenues up 40%, and “strong momentum” thanks to ongoing footfall at airports.
Significant announcements on Tuesday
Finals: BHP Group Ltd (LSE:BHP, ASX:BHP)
Interims: Bank of Georgia Group PLC (LSE:BGEO), Genuit Group PLC (LSE:GEN), Impact Healthcare REIT PLC (LSE:IHR), Tremor International Ltd (AIM:TRMR), Tribal Group PLC (AIM:TRB)
Trading updates: Watches of Switzerland Group PLC (LSE:WOSG)
AGMs: RUA Life Sciences (AIM:RUA) PLC
Economic announcements: Unemployment Rate (UK), Claimant Count Rate (UK), Building Permits (US) Housing Starts (US), Capacity Utilisation (US), Industrial Production (US)
US earnings: The Home Depot, Walmart