Annual results from BHP Group Ltd (LSE:BHP, ASX:BHP) early next week will be closely watched for further confirmation that the high water market for big mining earnings in this cycle has been passed.
Peer Rio Tinto recently cut its dividend and as BHP is a partner on many of its huge iron ore and copper projects something similar from the now Aussie-based titan cannot be ruled out.
BHP recently launched a hostile bid for Aussie rival OZ Minerals, which also might be a sign that the bumper organic growth of the past two years and fuelled by rocketing metal prices is indeed coming to an end.
Barclays notes OZ would bring a suite of long-life, low-cost, high-growth copper and nickel assets with synergy potential.
“The drawbacks: it is relatively small-scale, synergies are focused on capital avoidance, and the initial rebuff implies already-high multiples may rise, with downside risk for the second half dividend.”
Consensus forecasts are for annual revenues of US$66bn against US$60bn while operating profit should rise to US$36bn from US$30bn a year ago.
But the dividend will be the thing with US $3.15 expected against $3.01 a year ago,