Comment of the Day
Video commentary for July 26th 2022
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
Some of the topics discussed include: earnings remain very mixed, natural gas breaks out in Europe, firm in US, oil and gold steady, bitcoiin weak, stocks pause ahead of Fed meeting,
Alaska Trip Report July 2022
My view - I haven’t had so much fun on a business trip in years. It was an absolute pleasure to visit with some clients of Nevada Trust Company in Juneau, to participate in carving of a totem pole due to be erected in the centre of town, munch on king crab, spot prawns, salmon and halibut and get in a day of fishing with my family.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) Sees More Fed Hikes While JPMorgan Expects Pivot
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
While Morgan Stanley strategists say it’s too early to expect the Fed to stop tightening its policy even as fears of a recession grow -- suggesting stocks have more room to fall before finding a bottom, JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM). strategists say bets that inflation has peaked will lead to a Fed pivot and improve the picture for equities in the second half.
Sticky inflation is what will keep the Fed hawkish for longer this time around, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael J. Wilson. While during the past four cycles the US central bank had stopped tightening its policy before the start of an economic contraction, triggering a bullish signal for stocks, current historic levels of inflation mean the Fed will likely still be tightening when a recession arrives, Wilson wrote in a note.
Equity markets “may be trying to get ahead of the eventual pause by the Fed that is always a bullish signal,” Wilson said. “The problem this time is that the pause is likely to come too late.”
Over at JPMorgan, Mislav Matejka said in a note on Monday that challenging activity momentum and softer labor markets could open doors to a more balanced Fed policy, leading to a peak in the US dollar and inflation.
My view - Inflation may well have peaked or be close to a peak because the consensus is that it is entrenched. What we do not know is how quickly inflationary figures will come down and where they will subsequently stabilise.
Diabetes breakthrough restores insulin production using existing drug
This article from NewAtlas.com may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The team says that the new potential treatment has a few advantages over other techniques currently in use or under development. Pancreas transplants are effective, but subject to organ donor shortages and other complications like rejection. Other teams have converted skin cells into stem cells and used those to produce new beta cells, and although results have been promising in mice, immune-suppressing drugs need to be given to prevent rejection.
The new treatment would work much faster, within a matter of days, and without the need for surgery. But perhaps the biggest advantage is that GSK126 is already approved by the US FDA and elsewhere in the world as a treatment for cancer. Its safety profile is already being assessed in clinical trials, which could reduce hurdles down the road for its use against diabetes.
That said, the scientists caution that it is still very early days. These experiments were conducted on cells in culture – not even in animals yet – so there’s still plenty of work to do. Nevertheless, it remains an intriguing new possible tool.
My view - Diabetes is the ultimate money-spinning chronic disease. It is manageable for Type-2 patients if they have the personal discipline to abide by a low sugar diet. The problem is most people who end up with diabetes suffer from poor impulse control or are happy to take the drug regime prescribed to live as they please. The number of patients continues to trend higher as living standards rise and every day provides a bounty that would once have been reserved for festivals.
Eoin's personal portfolio: leveraged positions in commodities closed July 6th 2022
One of the questions subscribers ask most often is how to find details of my open trades. To make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.