News that long-waiting Mt Gox creditors will finally get a cheque in the mail has been met with concern of a “black swan” event looming on the horizon.
Some, including Forbes, surmise that an additional US$3bln worth of BTC on the market — roughly 0.8% of the going market cap — might cause downward pressure in an already bearish environment.
But worried stakeholders should take a quick reality check.
While 140,000 BTC is a huge sum, it is only slightly more than 15% of the 850,000 BTC actually stolen from the exchange in 2015.
There is also little chance that creditors will be willing to dump in this bearish market, with Bitcoin still struggling to bounce off the $20,000 support line.
Hardly a foolproof metric, but an open poll on the /r/mtgoxinsolvency Reddit suggests that at least 53% of respondents intend to hold while 23% intend to short the market.
Even if 100% of creditors decide to cash out, Bitcoin regularly changes hands at volumes of US$30bln+ daily, so it is debatable how much influence an extra US$3bln will have.
No crystal ball
But there are also some glaring information gaps surrounding the repayment plan.
First and foremost, there’s a good chance that the 140,000 bag of BTC will be vested over a prolonged period to deter a harmful bank run.
Second, mystery surrounds just how much each approved creditor is expected to receive; unofficial payout calculators are available, but estimates are not based on official data supplied by the estate.
Theoretically, a weighted bias for low-stakes creditors would diversify distribution and make large-scale dumping less likely, although the presumed line among the community is an average of 20% across the board.
The official announcement circulated on July 6 does not go into much detail, although “the choice of whether to receive an Early Lump-Sum Repayment or not” has been given.
Is another LUNA incoming?
Drawing parallels with Terra’s US$750mln Bitcoin dump on May 9, which preceded a 12.5% price drop on the day, is enticing, but it does not tell the whole story.
#MtGox started repayment process of stolen 150,000 BTC https://t.co/Onfzzu6hE2
Remember when #LUNA sold 80k BTC, it crashed 36%.
Now when 150k #BTC will be sold at 21k price just imagine.
150k BTC was bought at 320$/btc in 2014. Even now users are at 63 times profit.
— Coins Mudra (@CoinsMudra) July 7, 2022
It was at this period that LUNA and UST were on the precipice of total collapse, while an unprecedented bank run was beginning to form.
The Ukraine invasion, runaway inflation and rising energy prices were also contributing to a fearful market sentiment.
Though none of this is to say that the market will not respond negatively — no one can know for sure — plenty of time has been given for the event to be priced in accordingly.
Repayments are scheduled to commence at the end of August, when the true market impact will become evident.