At the half-way stage of this year's 'Xmas tips' investment contest, we have a fairly clear leader with six months to go.
The investment outlook back in the festive period was very different to where we stand today, which has led to a few of our competitors almost coming unseated - though as ever there were several very prescient picks.
No-one predicted an invasion of Ukraine when we published the tips back in December, but some of the other elements of the market were foreseen by some, with three tipsters boasting a positive position at halfway, versus the FTSE 100 down 4.5% and the S&P 500 down 21%.
Anyway, here's the current runners and riders, from best to worse (so far).
SARK ETF
Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com
Price US$64.41 at close on 30 June, up 73% from Xmas tip price of US$37.2 (from 29 Dec)
This the Tuttle Capital Short Innovation ETF is a way for investors to short Cathie Wood and her ARKK Innovation fund, which Neil tipped “for fun”, he said at the time, “largely because I think Tesla has to massively derate sooner or later”, referring to what has been and remains one of the fund’s biggest holdings.
“ARKK has bounced a bit the last two weeks as growth rallied on a decline in yields amid a broader bear market rally,” Neil says, with Tesla down 44% and other tech holdings also tanking.
He still thinks it has further to unwind. “The ETF has delivered everything I’d hoped for. SARK has risen 78% YTD, so pretty pleased but it was a slam dunk as inflation was going to rip.”
Ruffer Investment Company Ltd (LSE:RICA)
Peter Sleep, senior investment manager at 7 Investment Management
Price 300p, up 3.093% from Xmas tip price of 291p
At the time, Peter said “If the markets do well this pick will put me last in the list.” And as we know, markets have not done well, which has meant that Ruffer’s fund designed to “do well in extreme adverse events” has generated one of the few positive performances and at the end of May it was up 11%.
The latest comment from Peter, who stands in second place at the halfway stage, one better than his position at the end of last year's contest, is that he is “happy to stick to my original choice. Markets are sloppy and I think RICA is a longish term hold.”
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA)
Vince Stanzione, financial trader, trainer and author of The Millionaire Dropout
Price US$20.38, up 3.0855% from Xmas tip price of US$19.77
Vince’s tip was based on agricultural commodities remaining depressed at the end of last year, with his expectation that inflation and food prices would continue to rise in 2022. The invasion in Ukraine has made food supplies a big story this year and both funds had strong few months, with BDA up almost 17% by mid-May, but agricultural commodities have faded in the past six weeks, to put him (only just) in third place after finishing second last year. Vince’s alternative London-listed tip of WisdomTree’s AIGA has done better at around 12%.
“The higher costs of fuel, fertilizers, labour and of course geopolitical issues remain,” says Vince now. “I believe there is too much ‘optimism’ that the world is well supplied with agricultural commodities. As we move into the last few months of the year, I expect supply to remain very tight and demand to remain constant, leading to another run up in prices with wheat prices leading the pack higher.”
Invesco China Equity – Accumulation shares (GBP)
Darius McDermott, managing director of FundCalibre
Price 776.03p, down 1.4% from Xmas tip price of 786.95p
In fourth place with what he said back in December was a contrarian pick, Darius says he is “happy to stick with the fund”.
So far this year it is outperforming its wider sector, which is averaging of -4.2%.
“What we didn't know in January was that China would reintroduce shutdown policy (zero-covid) as the rest of the world was reopening. This caused the market to fall until mid March when it bottomed. Our pick was contrarian and value-oriented and that is still the case today.
“China has actually cut interest rates at a time when the rest of the world is raising them. China, along with everything else, would struggle in a global recession. Further lock downs would also hurt. But, in summary, a -0.88% return YTD looks pretty good against almost all other assets!"
Unilever PLC (LSE:ULVR)
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG
Price 3,774.5p, down 5.5% from Xmas tip price of 3,996p
“After a big wobble at the start of the year, Unilever has begun to pick up again,” says Chris, who should be pretty chuffed being in the top half of this year's battle, though one place below his fourth last year.
“Now that the initial shock of inflation has worn off, perhaps a rosier view might prevail. Ultimately a consumer staples firm is a much better place to weather a recession than a high-flying (or once high-flying) tech stock.”
VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Limited (LSE:VOF)
Dan ‘Wilderness’, operator of The Financial Wilderness blog
Price 475.5p, down 8.2% from tip price of 518p
In a respectable sixth place at the half-way stage, Dan is the highest placed of the newcomers this year.
“VOF now fights a few headwinds as consumer goods demand is significantly more challenged as interest rates rise, but we still like the long term value it offers as a hold - albeit long term may now be beyond this competition’s timeframe!”
Vanguard US Equity Index Fund – Accumulation units (GBP)
Maria Nedeva, business school professor and creator of The Money Principle site
Price 68,006.93p down 12.6% from tip price of 77,834.58p
“What a six months it has been! At the beginning of 2022, I entered the ProactiveInvestors’ race with Vanguard US Equity Index Fund. Today, 28 June 2022 the fund is 12.6% down on early January. Do I continue investing in it? You bet. I see this drop as the best sale ever.
“Do I think I will win the race? Probably not but I have no doubt that the Vanguard US Equity Index Fund will recover before the year is out. Watch this space."
Legal & General Group PLC (LSE:LGEN)
John Kingham, investment writer and blogger at UK Dividend Stocks
Price 239.5p, down 19.6% from tip price of 297.8p
Legal and General is down about 18% so far this year, which John says “reflects increasing investor fearfulness rather than declining fundamentals”.
With L&G's annual results in March positive, including a 5% rise in the dividend and meaning the dividend yield is now 7.5%, he says “I'm happy to reinvest dividends back into L&G or elsewhere as the UK market is now offering up many bargains”.
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor
Price US$136.72, down 23.7% from tip price of US$179.29
At the time, Victoria apologised that her tip might be a “bit boring” – but markets and especially tech stocks have been anything but that in 2022.
At the time, she felt Apple looked set to benefit from the global economic recovery that many expected in December, while its size also meant it looked “well positioned as a hedge against further restrictions as Omicron looms”, with further restrictions having largely been limited to China, and Victoria’s hopes of a potential respite from problems with supply chain and chip shortages not subsiding.
CRH PLC (LSE:CRH)
Danni Hewson, AJ Bell financial analyst
Price 2,824p, down 27.7% from tip price of 3,906p
With CRH’s share price battered by the twin storms of inflation and recession nerves in the first half, Danni said she considered jumping ship away from her pick “but that feels a little un-sporting”.
“Realistically volatility is likely to continue to undermine investor confidence in the short term,” she says. “But the company’s fundamentals still look really good, sales are strong, margins are holding up and the company’s investing in both growth and share buybacks. A quality business with what’s now a value price tag if you’re looking beyond the next few months.”
(PS she would have swapped for Babcock International PLC as it is “still looking cheap but likely to make out like a bandit if govt defence spending does go up”.)
Micro Focus International PLC (LSE:MCRO)
Peter Higgins, private investor, co-host of the Twin Petes Investing and Investing Matters podcasts
Price 279.8p, down 31.6% from tip price of 409.2p
Peter says he remains "happy with my selection" despite the tech sell-off in the year to date.
"I hope that the #AI, cloud-based & #cybersecurity catalyst going into the second of the year will lead to improved revenue growth & profitability from Microfocus, which then hopefully triggers a share price re-rating followed by a large premium takeover for >£5.50 Vs today derisory share price of £2.91. #OneCanOnlyHope".
Games Workshop Group PLC (LSE:GAW)
Dan Lane, senior analyst at Freetrade
Price 6,680p, down 33.7% from tip price of 10,080p
Back in December Dan acknowledged that the tabletop gaming star had a few hurdles to overcome and it, like many stars of the pandemic, has stumbled.
Purplebricks Group PLC (AIM:PURP)
Oliver Haill - me
Price 14.59p, down 40% from Xmas tip price of 24.3p
My risky "comeback stock" tip has yet to mount its comeback, with the "more pain to come" still the overriding mood for the online estate agent. I am still crossing my fingers.
Cordel Group PLC (AIM:CRDL)
Andrew Hore, editor of The AIM Journal
Price 4.5p, down 59.1% from tip price of 11p
“Surveying and Corridor.ai analysis platform operator Cordel (LSE: CRDL) has been winning work with rail operators in the US but the share price continues to decline from the recommendation level of 11.5p. Loss-making technology companies are out of fashion. A small, but lower than previously expected, profit is still possible for 2022-23. Growth in revenues has not been as fast as hoped but they are still expected to double each year for the next two years. The share price is currently 4.65p. There is still plenty of upside in the long-term and hopefully there may be some recovery in the second half.”
Metahero (HERO/USD)
Andy Robinson, vlogger at Operation Crypto
Price US$0.008648, down 93.8% from tip price of US$0.1404
Newcomer Andy tipped MetaHero, a cryptocurrency that he expected to be “the gateway into the Metaverse” through its connection with Facebook owner Meta Platforms. However, crypto markets have been ravaged this year, with Metahero among the many that have crashed dramatically.