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Transport

Go-Ahead takeover is all about bus depots and is a real steal, says Citi

A bid battle may be likely as the proposed cash offer from Kinetic and Globalvia is "less than net asset value", analysts calculated

They may be unglamorous and largely ignored (unless you end up in one after falling asleep in a night bus) but Britain's bus depots are the real reason behind the flurry of private equity interest in the transport sector.

For this reason, suggested Citigroup, the takeover deal that Go-Ahead Group PLC recommended earlier this week is a real steal.

The 1,450p-per-share offer from Australian bus company Kinetic and Spanish infrastructure investor Globalvia, valuing the business at £648mln, compares to a total value of its depots of £910mln, according to Citi's calculations, or 1,600p per share.

"We believe the recent interest from infrastructure funds and private equity in the sector is driven by the valuable real estate assets in the form of depots," Citi said in a note on Thursday.

It noted that "the investor community had been skeptical about value unlocking given the importance of bus depots for operations".

Having examing Go-Ahead’s footprint of UK depots, analysts noted for clarity that the proposed cash offer from Kinetic and Globalvia is "less than net asset value".

This could suggest that Kelsian Group, another Australian transport company that has held talks with Go-Ahead, may come back with a better offer.

Earlier this week Kelsian urged shareholders to “take no action at this time” as it had been in “preliminary discussions” with Go-Ahead in relation to a possible bid, with any possible offer “likely to be in cash”.

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