SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 18 05 22
Lithium and rare earth prices power ahead despite hawkish Powell comments
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American West Metals (PRIVATE-AU:AW1) – Good grades reported from the shallow metallurgical drillhole at the West Desert
Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) – De Beers reports continuing strong demand for its rough diamonds
Cora Gold Ltd (AIM:CORA) – Zone B North drilling results
Cornish Metals Inc (AIM:CUSN, TSX-V:CUSN, OTC:SBWFF)* – Valuation 48p/s - Annual results highlight progress since the AIM debut
Eurasia Mining PLC (AIM:EUA)* – New director specialising in hydrogen and ammonia appointed. Trading suspension lifted
Oriole Resources PLC (AIM:ORR) – Iamgold moves into second phase of its earn-in at Senala, Senegal
Power Metal Resources PLC (AIM:POW)* – Hole DITDD004 intersects magnetic anomaly as intended
Kavango Resources PLC (LSE:KAV, OTC:KVGOF)
Dow Jones Industrials +1.34% at 32,655
Nikkei 225 +0.94% at 26,911
HK Hang Seng -0.15% at 20,572
Shanghai Composite -0.24% at 3,086
Economics
Wind energy generated power capacities in the North Sea is expected to expand 10x by 2050 as part of an effort to diversify away from strong reliance on Russian gas, Danish PM said.
- Germany, Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands are considering ~$150B to expand the capacity to more than 150GW.
- The agreement is expected to be signed by the heads of government of the four countries in the presence of EC President Ursula von der Leyen at a summit in Esbjerg, western Denmark later on Wednesday, Bloomberg reports.
- Strong demand for renewable energy is supportive of demand for REE and copper used in wind turbines’ generators permanent magnets and wiring, respectively, as well as potential energy solutions like VRFB.
US – Retail sales came in surprisingly resilient in April despite the latest evidence of strong inflation.
- The data speaks in support of a continuation in the current monetary tightening cycle as the Fed seems determined to go forward with 50bp hikes in the next two meetings.
- Separately, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s resolve to bring inflation down even it it requires pushing up unemployment.
- "Restoring price stability is an unconditional need… It is something we have to do… There could be some pain involved." Mr. Powell said in an interview Tuesday.
- Retail Sales (%mom): 0.9 v 0.5 in March and 1.0 est.
- Retail Sales ex Auto and Gas (%mom): 1.0 v 0.2 in March and 0.7 est.
Fed Chairman indicated the Fed will not hesitate to raise interest rates until inflation falls in a clear and convincing way
- The comments feel like a poker player who is stuck with a bad hand and can’t afford to play
- The US wants to stop runaway inflation but cannot afford to raise rates too far for multiple reasons (government debt costs, household mortgage costs, etc..)
- Raising interest rates further will also have the effect of lifting the US dollar causing problems for companies in developing nations around the world.
- While this might look good for commodity exporters it raises the cost of local manufacturing reducing margins to unprofitable levels exacerbating problems caused by rising energy prices and competition with China.
- If too many of these manufacturers in developing nations go under the knock-on effect could precipitate a new emerging market debt crisis.
- Given, the developing food crisis with grain and other foodstuffs stuck in the Ukraine along with significantly higher food prices, then the world is also heading into a worsening food crisis with reports of people in North Africa already on one meal a day.
China – New home prices declines accelerated in April extending a run of negative monthly readings to eight months.
- Property market liquidity issues as well as economic growth slowdown amid Covid related disruptions weigh on developers.
- Authorities tired to support demand by cutting mortgage rates and down payments, although, the measures seem to have done little to revive home sales.
- New Home Prices (%mom): -0.30 v -0.07 in March.
- Shanghai reported three days of no new Covid cases outside quarantine zones but remains locked down in many areas
EU – Car sales dropped 20.6%yoy on supply chain issues, the European Automobile Manufacturer’s Association (ACEA) reported.
- Over the first four months sales were down 14.4%yoy.
- All major markets reported a decline with sales in Italy down by a third and both France and Germany off just more than a fifth.
- With disposable income under pressure from climbing energy and food costs as well as the prospect for higher borrowing costs, it is hard to see a near term bounce back in the sentiment.
Eurozone - CPI rose 7.4% yoy in April vs 7.4% yoy previously
CPI rose 0.6% mom in April vs 0.6% mom previously
Core CPI rose: 3.5% yoy in April vs 3.5% previously
Russia – Official state media narrative in Russia may be changing as military analyst criticises war in Ukraine
- A former Russian Colonel and military analyst appeared on a flagship Russian state TV channel warning the situation in Ukraine ‘will clearly get worse’ as Ukraine receives military assistance from the West and ‘the Ukrainian army can arm a million people.’ (BBC).
- "The biggest problem with [Russia's] military and political situation," according to the Colonel continuing… "is that we are in total political isolation and the whole world is against us, even if we don't want to admit it. We need to resolve this situation. The situation cannot be considered normal when against us, there is a coalition of 42 countries and when our resources, military-political and military-technical, are limited." (BBC)
- Putin is now thought to be micromanaging the war in Ukraine causing confusion in the Russian military
- Putin and General Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff are reported to be dictating basic troop movements in in tactical decision-making
- Russia is thought to have lost around a third of its forces in the Ukraine having been pushed back from Kharkiv.
- The appearance of the former Colonel on state TV suggests Putin is changing the narrative to the Russian people and potentially preparing the way for some form of withdrawal of Russian forces.
- Some also expect Russia to detonate a nuclear test within its territory as part of a demonstration of its nuclear potential.
UK – Inflation climbed to the highest rate since early 1980s on the back of a surge in energy and fuel prices.
- Both petrol and diesel prices in April climbed to a record.
- The central bank is forecasting double-digit inflation by October when energy bills are almost certain to go up again.
- CPI (%mom): 2.5 v 1.1 in March and 2.6 est.
- CPI (%yoy): 9.0 v 7.0 in March and 9.1 et.
- Core CPI (%yoy): 6.2 v 5.7 in March and 6.2 est.
Currencies
US$1.0517/eur vs 1.0466/eur yesterday. Yen 129.18/$ vs 129.34/$. SAr 16.001/$ vs 16.064/$. $1.242/gbp vs $1.240/gbp. 0.701/aud vs 0.701aud. CNY 6.748/$ vs 6.755/$.
Commodity News
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,812/oz vs US$1,826/oz yesterday
Gold ETFs 104.8moz vs US$105.0moz yesterday
Platinum US$959/oz vs US$944/oz yesterday
Palladium US$2,047/oz vs US$2,012/oz yesterday
Silver US$21.56/oz vs US$21.61/oz yesterday
Rhodium US$16,100/oz vs US$16,100/oz yesterday
Base metals:
Copper US$ 9,269/t vs US$9,310/t yesterday
Aluminium US$ 2,879/t vs US$2,831/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 26,365/t vs US$26,320/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 3,612/t vs US$3,618/t yesterday
Lead US$ 2,090/t vs US$2,112/t yesterday
Tin US$ 33,495/t vs US$33,100/t yesterday
Energy:
Oil US$112.6/bbl vs US$114.0/bbl yesterday
- Crude oil prices pared back earlier gains after the US government announced plans to allow Chevron to negotiate its oil license with PDVSA in Venezuela.
- The API reported US crude stockpiles fell 2.4mb last week, with gasoline also seeing a 5.1mb draw.
- European energy prices were higher as the EU and UK continue to build gas stocks, which are up 151TWh to 450TWh since the start of April and almost back in line with the prior 10-year average.
- Carbon permits fell after the EU announced plans to sell €20bn of permits from its reserves to help fund its plan to wean itself off Russian gas by boosting investment in renewables and clean-energy technologies.
Natural Gas US$8.191/mmbtu vs US$8.043/mmbtu yesterday
Uranium UXC US$48.75/lb vs $49.90/lb yesterday
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$129.5/t vs US$129.8/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$721.4/t vs US$725.6/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$248.5/t vs US$248.5/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$399.5/t vs US$377.0/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$485.0/t vs US$485.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$75,000/t vs US$75,000/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$138,959/t vs US$134,915/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$63,513/t vs US$63,425/t
China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$4,020/t vs US$4,020/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% $1,824/t vs US$1,816/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$336/t vs US$336/t
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$815/t vs US$815/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 10.1/lb vs US$10.1/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 40.75/kg vs US$40.75/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$367/t vs US$366/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$93.7/t vs US$92.7/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$1,215/t vs US$1,215/t
Battery News
EVs overtake phones as top source of cobalt demand in 2022
- The automotive industry consumed 59,000t of cobalt in 2021, or 31% of total demand, according to the Cobalt Institute.
- Mobile phone manufacturing accounted for 26,000t and laptops 16,000t.
- Total demand for cobalt was 175,000t against mined supply of 160,000t – although the actual figure could be higher.
- Almost 75% of the world’s mined cobalt supply comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo, where production is dominated by Chinese companies and Glencore.
- The Cobalt Institute sees cobalt demand hitting 320,000t in the next five years, up from 175,000t in 2021, as the car industry produces more battery-powered vehicles.
Company News
American West Metals (PRIVATE-AU:AW1) A$0.18, Mkt Cap A$28m – Good grades reported from the shallow metallurgical drillhole at the West Desert
- The Company released results from the third drill hole completed at the flagship West Desert Project in Utah.
- Results from the WD22-02 drill hole include:
- 7.2m at 8.57% Zn, 0.26% Cu, 0.33g/t Au, 77.48g/t In from 75m within the wider interval of 35.5m at 3.2% Zn, 0.17% Cu, 0.15g/t Au, 16.43g/t Ag and 52.66g/t In from 75m.
- Results are from the shallow drill hole (234m downhole depth) designed to test open pit potential of the deposit and provide material for metallurgical tests.
- The mineralisation is variably weathered and consists of oxide and transitional material.
- Historical metallurgical testwork from 2009 demonstrated zinc/copper/indium recoveries of 95%/78%/43%, respectively, using sulphuric leaching during the process.
- The Company is studying the potential for a dual open pit and underground development scenario of the deposit while continuing with the drilling programme designed to expand high grade core of the deposit as well as testing other satellite targets.
- Exploration drill hole (WD22-19) is currently in progress testing a strong magnetic anomaly located ~300m to the west of the West Desert Deposit.
Conclusion: WD22-02 shallow metallurgical drillhole returned good grades of zinc mineralisation as the team is looking at potential for an open pit production to complement a potential underground operation. The mineralisation is reported to be predominantly oxide and transitional with metallurgical testwork now underway to verify historical results.
Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) 3,475p, Mkt Cap £46.8bn – De Beers reports continuing strong demand for its rough diamonds
- Anglo American reports that the fourth De Beers sales cycle of 2022 realised US$604m on a provisional basis and that the previously reported sales for the second sales cycle of 2022 have now been confirmed as US$562m.
- The latest provisional sales figures are more than US$220m ahead of the US$385m reported for the equivalent fourth sales cycle of 2021 and bring sales so far in 2022 to approximately US$2.5bn and, we estimate, to its highest level at this stage of the sales cycle, since 2016.
- Commenting on the sales figures De Beers Chief Executive, Bruce Cleaver, confirmed that “We saw the continuation of good demand for our rough diamonds during the fourth sales cycle of 2022, supported by strong consumer demand for diamond jewellery in the US. However, rough diamond demand in the coming cycle will be affected as usual by the closure of many diamond polishing factories in India for the traditional May holidays”.
Cora Gold Ltd (AIM:CORA) 7.3p, Mkt Cap £21m – Zone B North drilling results
- The Company released a second set of results from its recently completed drilling campaign at Sanankoro, southern Mali.
- Drilling results were predominantly infill holes at the Zone B with selected results including:
- 17m at 2.85g/t including 2m at 2.86g/t and 2m at 17.13g/t from 81m;
- 11m at 1.99g/t including 1m at 7.84g/t and 1m at 8.86g/t from 31m;
- 11m at 1.35gt/ including 1m at 8.57g/t from 22m.
- Zone B is the third major deposit at Sanankoro behind Selin and Zone A and is the strike extension of Zone A.
- All Zone B North RC holes have now been released and RC assay results from Selin, Fode 1 and Target 6 will be released in the coming weeks.
- The drilling programme included 11 AC shallow holes for ~900m and 78 RC holes for ~7,000m comprising Zone B North (~5,000m), Selin (~1,100m), Fode 1 (~500m) and target 6 (400m).
Conclusion: Drilling results from Zone B North returned a series of very narrow high grade intersections with the team now awaiting the remaining results from other deposits/targets with a view to upgrade/grow existing Sanankoro MRE.
Cornish Metals Inc (AIM:CUSN, TSX-V:CUSN, OTC:SBWFF)* – 17.25p, Mkt cap £49m - Annual results highlight progress since the AIM debut
Valuation 48p/s
- Cornish Metals reports a loss of C$2.9m for the year to 31st January 2022 (2021 – C$1.6m loss) and a year-end cash balance of C$6.9m.
- The company highlights the successful AIM listing in February 2021 and the agreement to convert the Osisko Loan Note into royalty agreements covering the Cornish mineral properties among the corporate achievements for the year.
- Operational highlights include the increased mineral resources estimate for the South Crofty mine, which increased the indicated resources by over 10% to 2.08mt at an average grade of 1.59% tin and more than doubled the inferred resources to 1.94mt averaging 1.67% tin, as well as the start of exploration at the nearby United Downs project area where results from the initial 3,927m of drilling have now been reported.
- Additional mineral rights secured from Roskear Minerals and from the Vyvyan family extend the footprint available at South Crofty while agreement has been reached with Wheal Jane Limited “for the disposal of waste material derived from the treatment of mine water from the South Crofty mine into the Wheal Jane tailings dam located 12 kilometers east of South Crofty. The agreement will become effective when dewatering of the South Crofty mine commences”.
- At United Downs, the drilling has traced the UD Lode 200m along strike and 400m down-dip as well as encountering “Several additional zones of copper - tin - silver - zinc mineralization … adjacent to the UD Lode … [and] …Multiple zones of high-grade copper mineralization … down dip beneath the historic United Mines”.
- The work at United Downs has also probed a “second target 900 meters to the south of the UD Lode, called Trenares Lode”.
- Since the end of the financial year, Cornish Metals has announced a conditional £40.5m financing agreement including a £25m investment by Vision Blue Resources “to advance the South Crofty tin project to a potential construction decision, with completion of the financing subject to, among other things, receipt of TSX-V and shareholder approvals”.
- A feasibility study on the potential re-opening of the South Crofty mine is expected “on or before 31 December 2024”.
- CEO, Richard Williams, summarised the progress during the year confirming that it included “the simplification of the Company's capital structure, advancing the exploration program at United Downs, increasing the Mineral Resource Estimate for South Crofty, reaching agreement on the deferred consideration for the Cornish assets and agreeing to the leasing of additional mineral rights at South Crofty”.
- He explained that, subject to the relevant approvals, the additional financing is expected to “open a new chapter for the Company as South Crofty is advanced towards a potential construction decision … [and said that] … In the coming months, I look forward to reporting on progress at South Crofty and the substantial benefits this will bring to Cornwall and more widely, the UK mining industry”.
Conclusion: The AIM listing of Cornish Metals last year facilitated the exploration at United Downs and the recently announced additional financing positions the company to complete a feasibility assessment of the potential to reopen South Crofty..
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Cornish Metals
Eurasia Mining PLC (AIM:EUA)* 8.00p, Mkt Cap £228m – New director specialising in hydrogen and ammonia appointed. Trading suspension lifted
- Shares in Eurasia Mining resumed trading today following their suspension on Monday.
- The company issued a statement yesterday evening stating that it had ‘no material new developments to notify’.
- Eurasia also announced that ‘Artem Matyushok has been appointed as an independent Non-Executive Director of Eurasia with effect from today’.
- Artem Matyushok has served in senior M&A roles with major Natural Resource companies with a total value of M&A deals executed of >$100bn
- Formerly at Shell, Matyushok, worked on a number of development projects and later was involved in Shell's incipient Energy transition initiative including hydrogen and ammonia
- Matyushok is currently a director of H2 Transition Capital and H4 Transition Energy Limited.
- He was formerly a director of China Carbon Neutral Development Group and OOO Ecco Ros.
- Mr Matyushok’s expertise in hydrogen and ammonia may prove helpful in the company’s Hydrogen and ammonia strategy as announced on 30 December.
- Eurasia have an agreement with H4Energy, an engineering and development company specializing in hydrogen and ammonia projects in Kola and Sakhalin, Russia.
- The team see their ability to access hydrogen and ammonia as complimentary to their PGM business in Russia.
- Eurasia previously reported support for the development of the projects on a Federal level had been secured from the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia and Presidential Envoy to the Far Eastern Federal District
- Management have a pre-investment feasibility study prepared for Eurasia and H4Energy and reviewed by independent technical experts supporting their move into this area.
- The company also has an agreement with the State Far East and Arctic Development Corporation (ERDC) to assist with the procurement of land and energy supplies in relation to both the Kola and Sakhalin hydrogen / ammonia projects.
- Eurasia and H4Energy were in the process of negotiating energy supply agreements with regional energy suppliers at end December with several off-take agreements being discussed including own use of hydrogen for the Company's mining equipment for the Kola operations.
- The group reported on the development of a project finance plan to further to ongoing discussions with Asian investors in the 30th December update.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Eurasia Mining
Oriole Resources PLC (AIM:ORR) – 0.25p, Mkt cap £5.2m – Iamgold moves into second phase of its earn-in at Senala, Senegal
- Oriole Resources reports that Iamgold has started the second phase of its earn-in to the Senala gold project in Senegal with a US$4m expenditure programme which will increase its interest to 70% by the end of February 2024.
- The company confirms that Iamgold has spent US$4m on its first phase of exploration and that the “route to formalising IAMGOLD's 51% interest in Senala is currently being reviewed”.
- Work on a US$1.5m programme of auger drilling is underway at the Faré prospect and “a planned 9,600 metre ('m') and is expected to be completed by the end of May … [which] … will test the extent of the sub-surface anomalism along strike of the existing known targets”.
- The auger drilling “will predominantly focus on testing the strike extension (southwest and northeast) of the main circa six kilometre-long structure at Faré and a grid has also been planned to test a gold-in-soil-sampling anomaly (previously identified by the Company) circa three kilometre to the east of Faré”.
- CEO, Tim Livesey, welcomed Iamgold’s continuing investment in the project and said that its “confidence in the prospectivity of the Faré area, underpinned by the excellent 2021 drilling results, matches our own belief that there is significant potential for the development of a standalone target”.
- He confirmed that “There are a few administrative steps required to complete the formalisation of IAMGOLD's 51% ownership but we support its decision to continue the exploration programme at pace whilst we finalise the structure”.
Power Metal Resources PLC (AIM:POW)* 1.43p, Mkt Cap £21m – Hole DITDD004 intersects magnetic anomaly as intended
Kavango Resources PLC (LSE:KAV, OTC:KVGOF) 3.1p, Mkt cap £13m
(Ditau is held within Kanye Resources, a 50/50 joint venture between Power Metal and Kavango, with Kavango being the operator of the project)
- Kanye reports that DITDD004, the second hole in the Ditau drill programme has been successfully completed to a downhole depth of 389m.
- The hole was drilled into the i10 Target, a 2.2km diameter magnetic anomaly that Kanye Resources had previously modelled as a possible carbonatite.
- The company comments that the hole appears to have intercepted the magnetic anomaly within the drillhole from 293m to 321m downhole depth.
- Initial testing showed highly elevated magnetic susceptibility readings between 293m and 321m, with half core samples sent to the assay lab.
- Kanye hope to further define the i10 Target over the coming weeks through a 1km Audio-Magnetotelluric survey.
*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Power Metal
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The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
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Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474
Joe Rowbottom – Joe.Rowbottom@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0486
Sales
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Sources of commodity prices
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver - BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel - Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt - LME
Oil Brent - ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore - NYMEX
Thermal Coal - Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal - SSY
RRE - Steelhome
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite - Asian Metal
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