Comment of the Day
Video commentary for May 4th 2022
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
Some of the topics discussed include: BoE and Fed tighten but guidance was not as hawkish as feared. Dollar eased, stocks rebounded, Treasuries steadied. oil surged, gold steadies. Upside follow through would confirm lows of at least near-term significance for most stock markets and increase scope for reversionary rallies.
Eoin's personal portfolio: half stock market short bought back
One of the questions subscribers as most often is how to find details of my open trades. To make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.
Email of the day on value opportunities in telecoms
Your comments are often from a US perspective such as "telecom stocks are in downtrends such as Charter Communications". This is true for US telecom shares but many others, particularly in Europe have been going sideways for a number of years, potentially building bases such as KPN, Orange, Singapore Telecom, Telefonica, Vodafone and China Mobile. One or two have broken out to the upside. Would you be happy to comment on some of these charts?
My view - Thank you for this email. I last did an extensive review of the high yielding global telecoms sector in November. Here is a link.
EU Squeezes Hard on Russia, Sweeping In Oil, Bank, Business
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The European Union plans to ban Russian crude oil over the next six months and refined fuels by the end of the year as part of a sixth round of sanctions to increase pressure on Vladimir Putin over his invasion of Ukraine.
“This will be a complete import ban on all Russian oil, seaborne and pipeline, crude and refined,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in remarks to the European Parliament. “We will make sure that we phase out Russian oil in an orderly fashion, in a way that allows us and our partners to secure alternative supply routes and minimizes the impact on global markets.”
Hungary and Slovakia, which are heavily reliant on Russian energy and had opposed a sudden cut-off of oil, will be granted a longer timeframe -- until the end of 2023 -- to enforce the sanctions, according to people familiar with the matter.
My view - A rumbling argument in the oil market is contributing to the evolving wedging characteristic in prices. For the bulls, the dislocation caused by Western Europe’s efforts to stop buying Russian oil, as well as leaning on other countries to do the same, is a clean support for prices. The bears believe the impending global slowdown will kill off demand, and the market will turn to surplus faster than many people expect.
U.S. Cuts Quarterly Debt Sale, May Do So Again Even With Fed QT
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The Treasury Department said in a statement Wednesday that it will sell $103 billion of long-term securities at auctions next week -- down $7 billion from February. This marks the longest string of quarterly cuts since a 2014-2015 cycle. In a surprise for some dealers, it’s also trimming sales of two-year, three-year and five-year auctions in coming months.
“The issuance plans announced today leave Treasury well positioned” with regard to necessary borrowing, the department said in its statement. However, “additional reductions in future quarters may be necessary depending on future developments in projected borrowing needs.”
My view - The Fed hiked by 50-basis points today as expected and suggested 75 basis point hikes are not being actively considered. The pace of quantitative tightening will initially be slower than initially expected. It will start on June 1st at $47.5 billion and ramp up to $95 billion over the next quarter instead of starting at $95 billion now.
The Chart Seminar June 6th & 7th in London almost sold out
Now in its 53rd year, the first venue for The Chart Seminar in the post pandemic era will be in London on June 6th and 7th at the Army & Navy Club.
The room we have booked is somewhat smaller than usual so we only have one space left. Once that is filled we will move to a waitlist.
To reserve your place please contact Sarah@fullertreacymoney.com.
Delegate Rates:
Full fee: £1799
Each additional delegate: £850
Fuller Treacy Money Subscriber rate: £850
Prices exclude VAT where applicable