Elon Musk might’ve worn out all of the headlines by the time that Tesla Inc reports its first-quarter results on Wednesday, following a quarter that has seen production issues in China but two new 'gigafactories' opened.
While the rocketman launched a hostile US$43bn takeover move for Twitter, Tesla shareholders and Musk fan-persons will care more about car production stats, financial metrics and latest guidance.
They may also want to know what commitment Musk retains for his car maker, not least given that the divestment of Tesla shares are at least partly responsible for Musk’s stake building in Twitter.
For the first quarter earnings are expected to come in at US$2.27 a share, down from the US$2.54 in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Deliveries for the first quarter of this year have been announced as over 310k, another record, though below expectations due to supply chain disruptions.
On the plus side the new plants in Germany and Texas have opened, which should help boost Tesla’s production levels, while demand is far outstripping supply by roughly 25%, with many customers around the globe waiting up to six months.
"With Berlin and Austin key factories now on-line and producing Model Y's in a quickly ramping pace, the main question for tomorrow is just how bad the China production issues are and what that means for deliveries in 2Q and the rest of the year," said analysts at Wedbush.
"We estimate that roughly 50k units are now reduced for the June quarter for starters given the last three weeks of shutdown and depending on how aggressively Tesla can ramp back production could be impacted further over the next month.
"Musk & Co. are in a tough spot, as there are so many variables around 2Q China production that will certainly weigh on guidance for the rest of the year and thus has been a clear overhang on the stock over the past month."
Looking beyond the quarter, investors and analysts will also be focused on the supply chain outlook and possibly a production update for the new 4680 battery cell.