It seems likely.
But there are pressures in both directions.
Gold bulls - always the fun ones at parties – can point to the global uncertainty generated by the war in the Ukraine, and the increasing possibility of escalation.
Bears, though, can point – for the first time in a generation – to renewed interest in monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve, as years of money printing come home to roost in massive inflation.
At the moment, the bulls are just about edging it.
And that’s probably good, even for those long gold.
After all, as legendary resources entrepreneur Algy Cluff always used to say, you don’t want the gold price to be too high, because it means the end of the world is upon us.
And with the price moving only gradually upwards, there is some grounds for optimism that Armageddon is still some way off.
On the other hand, if the invasion of the Ukraine hadn’t corresponded with the end of a sustained period of monetary easing, it’s fair to say the gold price might well be considerably higher.
Is it serving successfully in its traditional role as a hedge against inflation and political risk? – yes.
Is it also signposting that something more serious is coming at us down the tracks?
Not yet.
But don’t rule it out.
British troops are already on the ground in the Ukraine. And there are plenty of Americans in-country too. Are we just one firefight away from a new Vietnam, Iraq or Korea?
Or could it be even worse?
And if it is, how much will it matter what the Treasury rates are at any given point?
Even if the war doesn’t heat up that much as summer rolls in, the potential for trouble will be simmering in the background all the while, setting up the unusual scenario in which the US dollar and gold are likely to be in demand at the same time.
Normally they trade inversely, which is to say that when the dollar is delivering healthy yields, gold is less in demand; and it’s more in demand when there’s no yield to incentivize investors to hold cash.
One member of the FOMC recently opined that rates could go as high as 3.5% - an uncontroversial level a generation ago – and, to flip this argument around, such a pronouncement would normally signal a sell-off in gold.
But a hot war in the Ukraine, well within the borders of the old Soviet Union, and in which British and Americans are increasingly, is as unprecedented as Covid, and arguably more dangerous.
So, the upward pressure on gold will remain.
And investors who are feeling particularly nervous would do well to load up on the VIX and crypto too.