At one-point Covid vaccine makers were supposedly making more than US$1,000 of profit a second, which by any measure makes it an emphatically lucrative piece of altruism.
But, now, some two years after the bat-flu outbreak how have the companies that helped re-open the locked-down economy fared?
First, it is worth noting that three of the world’s largest vaccine makers failed to produce Covid-19 jabs that were satisfactory enough to gain approval, while six other drug-makers – less known for vaccines – managed to succeed.
GlaxoSmithKline PLC (LSE:GSK), Merck and Sanofi were outdone, despite their expertise in this area, while Pfizer Inc (NYSE:PFE), AstraZeneca PLC (LSE:AZN), Moderna Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA), and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) have become synonymous with vaccine success.
Would it be too simplistic to declare them all Covid vaccine winners?
The market rewarded vax makers
Most of the six vaccine companies (Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Moderna, and J&J, BioNTech and Novavax) saw increases in value by at least a third in the two years since the pandemic began, and in most cases by much more.
Pfizer, up 74% since the outbreak with a market value of US$305bn today, and BioNTech, up 550% to US$42bn, produced a joint vaccine that was the first to be approved in the UK and instantly had an order of 40mln vaccine doses placed to Britain.
AstraZeneca, arguably the most high-profile of the Covid vaccine companies (in Britain at least), is now the UK’s most valuable listed company in London at US$220bn.
Moderna, meanwhile, surged 750% in price to trade at US$160.00 today, giving it a US$64bn value. Novavax similarly soared more than 700% over the two-year period, doubling in market cap to US$4.4bn.
Novavax’s vaccine shot is less familiar to the UK market, as it wasn’t approved here until as recently as two months ago.
Even the unwieldy conglomerate that is Johnson & Johnson, which makes everything from cotton buds to mouthwash to Tylenol, saw a 34% increase in its market capitalisation, which is now a supersized US$479bn.
Popular among the trypanophobics (people afraid of needles), J&J’s was a one-jab vaccine and also benefitted from needing only standard storage and distribution.
All of the Covid vax stocks at one time or another hit new all-time highs through the global health crisis.
The whole sector is up too
Broadly, pharma and biotech as a sector has seen heightened investor demand since the start of the pandemic, as health and wellness became a higher priority among the general populous.
As a result, shares in big pharma, even those that didn’t manage to successfully perfect vaccines, still saw substantial gains. But, none of the majors managed to outshine the vax stocks.
Shares in GlaxoSmithKline, aka “the world’s largest vaccine company by revenue”, rose by 23% to US$46.48 without getting the clearance for a Covid shot.
Sanofi similarly gained 32% to US$57.46 whilst Merck had the smallest gains of 18% to US$86.53 (which at any other time would not be a share price move to sniff at).
While our trio delivered a decent return, it wasn't enough to outshine the vaccine winners.
Peak pharma
So, have we seen the peak for the pharma sector?
Well, it would appear so. Moderna and BioNTech, for example, peaked at US$484 and US$447 a share respectively on 9 August last year, and are now both over 60% lower.
Novavax also appears unlikely to push back to its record price, since crashing 80% in the last 14 months.
You have to remember how far this trio travelled to get to that peak. Moderna, for example, was up over 2,200% from the start of 2020 to its 2021 peak.
It might be a different story for AstraZeneca, which has sailed serenely higher without the violent hiccups seen by its smaller rivals. Based on the price targets issued by analysts, it has further to ascend.
AZ marked a new high as recently as last Friday (at which point it topped the FTSE 100 in terms of market cap). Similarly, Sanofi and J&J are camped near their summit valuations.
Merck’s pinnacle was US$90.54 in November and is only 6% beneath that level presently.
Pfizer’s price topped out at US$61.25 in December, driven there by the outbreak of the Omicron Covid-strain, which sparked fresh demand for vaccines. Subsequently, the vaccine and Viagra maker has wilted 14% at US$52.85.
Who won the vaccine race?
It's evident that the six healthcare companies lesser known for their vaccine production came out on top.
But the sector as a whole, unloved before Covid, appears to be enjoying a renaissance.