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Today's Morning View - China may announce new stimulus measures as early as next week.

SP Angel . Morning View . Thursday 07 04 22China may announce new stimulus measures as early as next weekMiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below Graphene / high-grade graphite purification – private financing opportunityWe are in

SP Angel . Morning View . Thursday 07 04 22

China may announce new stimulus measures as early as next week

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Graphene / high-grade graphite purification – private financing opportunity

  • We are inviting investors to finance a private company which produces high-grade graphite and graphene from low grade graphitic material. The company also sells:
  • Paints: The company already sells a range of graphene paint products and is working on concrete modifiers.
  • Concrete modifier: developing distribution network.
  • Li-ion battery anodes: project in development in Warwick
  • Machinery uses cavitation waves mixture of water and graphite making the process environmentally friendly along with no detrimental grinding impact on graphite particles.

*SP Angel’s role is limited to making introductions and interested parties should be aware that investment in a private company can present certain risks not present in listed companies (e.g. limited or no liquidity and no rules compelling disclosure of information to investors). This offer is open to professional investors only and is not offered to retail investors.

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) – Q1/22 production and operations

Chaarat Gold (CGH LN) – FY21 loss recorded on high operating and interest costs despite strong commodity price environment

Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) – Initial sampling at Nkalonje returns up to 5.92% TREO

Scotgold Resources* (SGZ LN) – BUY – Up to £3m loan facility agreement

Zambia – State power company reaches agreement to supply copper mines

  • Zambia’s state-owned electricity supplier Zesco has reached a new bulk power supply agreement with Copperbelt Energy, the company that distributes energy to copper mines in the north of the country.

Inflation – Will inflation pull back to more normal levels as the world returns to a new normal

  • Pre-Covid, it felt like there was much pent-up inflation, held back by low-cost production out of China, extreme competition in consumer markets and a slowing growth environment.
  • The move to online sales and Amazon logistics served to slash sales margins, expand consumer choice and force manufacturers into ever more competitive pricing.
  • Falling raw materials prices also helped manufacturers maintain margins from a lower cost base.
  • We saw a similar trend in mining with China competing with Russia, the US and Scandanavia for machinery driving capital costs down and limiting margins
  • Covid enabled manufacturers and service providers to raise prices and the invasion of Ukraine has changed it all the more.
  • Covid drove online sales higher, stretching supply chains, restricting production and raising prices.
  • But at least Covid reduced oil & gas prices initially, though the refilling of the pipeline for fuel disrupted markets and caused prices to rise.
  • The invasion of Ukraine has driven oil and gas prices higher while reduced manufacturing for automotive components is disrupting German automotive manufacturing at a critical time.
  • Ukraine also refines titanium, nickel, cobalt and lithium for export into Western Europe alongside the manufacturing of rocket motors
  • Sanctions on Russia will also limit commodity imports from Russia driving oil & gas prices higher.
  • China is also refusing to sign new contracts with Russia as it treads a careful line between Russia and the West.
  • Manufacturers and services are seen rising prices while expanding margins at consumer expense, though some nations are moving to tax corporate benefits.
  • We now see a step change in inflation through 2022 though this should, hopefully, settle down in 2023.

Dow Jones Industrials -0.42% at 34,497

Nikkei 225 -1.69% at 26,889

HK Hang Seng -1.00% at 21,860

Shanghai Composite -1.33% at 3,240

Economics

JP Morgan Global Services 54.0 in March vs 53.4 in February and global composite 52.7 in March vs 53.6 in February

US – 10y bond yields are trading lower following the release of Fed March meeting minutes suggesting the news did nothing to add to the rate hike momentum already priced in, Reuters reports.

  • Minutes highlighted concerns between FOMC members over inflation and suggested the balance sheet reduction soud start next month.
  • Although, separate comments from Fed governor Lael Brainard earlier in the week already cemented expectations of a faster stimulus withdrawal.
  • ISM nonmanufacturing 55.0 in March vs 55.1 in February
  • S&P service 58.0 in March vs 56.5 in February and composite 57.7 in March vs 55.9 in February

China – State Council pledged to use monetary policy tools at “appropriate time” to boost growth citing intensification of worsening risks that have, in some cases, exceeded expectations,

  • Comments from the government upped expectations of a potential interest rate cut or some equivalent steps to be taken as early as next week.

BMW halt production in Shenyang for two weeks as authorities struggle to limit spread of Covid-19

  • Official nonmanufacturing PMI 48.4 for March vs 51.6 in February
  • Composite nonmanufacturing PMI 48.8 in March vs 51.2 in February
  • Caixin Services PMI: 42.0 v 50.2 in February and 49.7 est.
  • Caixin Composite PMI: 43.9 v 50.1 in February

China state refiners shun new Russian oil trades

  • Reuters reports that Chinese state refiners are honouring existing Russian oil contracts but avoiding signing new contracts despite steep discounts.
  • The Refineries appear to be treading a fine line on Russian transactions to avoid provoking the US into imposing sanctions on Chinese refineries.
  • EU sanctions on Rosneft (LSE:ROSN), Gazprom Neft and Russian crude sales have prompted Russian traders to offer discounted crude to Asian refineries.
  • India has already booked 14mbbls of Russian oil vs 16mbbls for the whole of 2021 and appears willing to risks heavy penalties with the west.
  • While Russia has increasingly courted trade with China, China state enterprises appear to be cautious not to circumventing US and EU sanctions for now.
  • We get the impression that China is unimpressed by Moscow’s miscalculation on its invasion of the Ukraine and the precedence it sets for resistance in other areas.
  • “Unipec, the trading arm of Sinopec and a leading Russian oil buyer, has warned its global teams at regular internal meetings in recent weeks against the risks of dealing with Russian oil.” Reuters
  • Russia normally supplies around 15% of Chinese crude oil imports.

Germany – Will German economy collapse as manufacturers are hit by quadruple whammy?

  • German manufacturing is having a tough time.
  • Consumers have all but stopped buying diesel passenger cars despite Germany’s focus on diesel due to lower CO2 emissions.
  • Diode manufacturing in China also hit parts suppliers for broad range of vehicles when Covid hit in 2020
  • Semiconductor chip shortage caused by manufacturers cancelling orders from Taiwan at the start of the Covid pandemic
  • Covid – staff sickness and isolation causing ongoing problems exacerbated by low take up of vaccines by mistrust of German population.
  • Focus on Pfizer and limits on the use of AstraZeneca for under 60s may have also led to lower immunity levels in the population.
  • Ukraine: parts suppliers in Ukraine all but closed cutting production of wiring looms and other low-value automotive components.
  • Neon and other gas production out of the Russia and the Ukraine also unavailable. Ukraine produces 50% of the world’s neon gas.
  • Russia: uncertainty over Russian gas and oil likely to impact business confidence and capital expenditure in the region.
  • Germany’s refusal to stop buying Russian oil and gas has upset many consumers who may choose to buy products from elsewhere.
  • German GfK consumer confidence -15.5 in March vs -8.1 in February
  • German nonmanufacturing PMI 56.1 in March vs 55.8 in February and 55.1 in March vs 55.6 in February

Russia – The US estimate their sanctions on Russia oligarchs and business could raise Russian inflation by 15% and reduce Russian GDP by 15% (Institute of International Finance)

  • The institute reckons western sanctions will wipe out 15-years of growth in Russia with the maximum effect likely to be seen in Q2
  • Russian oil sales have enabled Russia to avoid a sovereign debt default and for most Russian companies to avoid default on debt held in the west.
  • Nonmanufacturing PMI 38.1 in March vs 52.1 in February and 37.7 in March vs 50.8 in February - Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February.
  • Central Bank was blocked from accessing $400bn of forex reserves held outside Russia on 28 February. Russia is also suffering from high Covid rates.
  • VTB Capital seeks to enter administration after sanctions paralyse banking operations

UK – plans 8 new nuclear reactors alongside >75.5GW of renewable project capacity

  • The UK government has finally woken up and developed some cahonas with regard to energy production and security.
  • The UK is fast heading towards a serious power shortage as consumers buy increasing numbers of Electric Vehicles.
  • UK government expected to expand Offshore wind 2030 target to 50GW from 40GW today.
  • The UK currently has >75.5GW of renewable project capacity in the pipeline (RenewablesUK EnergyPulse Report, 22 March)
  • The UK has 10.46GW of renewable capacity commissioned and an additional 3.2GW in partial operation
  • The total pipeline is now more than 86GW – around 33GW higher than it was in March last year
  • The Scotwind leasing round added 24,826MW awarded to 17 projects with >13GW of floating projects
  • Development consent awarded to East Anglia One North and East Anglia Two on 1 April for 800MW and 900MW respectively
  • Replacing gas and oil boilers with heat pumps is also adding to electrical power consumption as well as strain on the power grid.
  • ~33% of home owners are keen to install heat pumps with 49% of UK heat pump ready homes interested in installing.

UK – Property prices climbed at the fastest pace in six months in March with the average home value up 1.4%mom to a record ~£283k, Halifax data showed.

  • The ninth consecutive increase saw prices up 11%yoy, close to the fastest annual increase since 2007.
  • Prices are now up 18% from levels at the time of the first Covid lockdown two years ago.
  • “The story behind such strong house price inflation remains unchanged: limited supply and strong demand, despite the prospect of increasing pressure on households’ finances,” Halifax commented on the data.
  • Nonmanufacturing PMI 62.6 in March vs 60.5 in February and 60.9 in March vs 59.9 in February

HK - Nonmanufacturing PMI 42.0 in March vs 42.9 in February

Japan - nonmanufacturing PMI 49.4 in March vs 44.2 in February and 50.3 in March vs 45.8 in February

South Korea - CPI rose 0.7% in March vs 0.6% in February and 4.1% yoy in March vs 3.7% yoy in February

Singapore - Nonmanufacturing PMI 52.9 in March vs 52.5 in February and South Africa 51.4 in March vs 50.9 in February

India - nonmanufacturing PMI 53.6 in March vs 51.8 in February and 54.3 in March vs 53.5 in February

  • Hot start to summer driving sales of air-conditioners and air coolers in India. Better quality units are copper intensive with cheaper versions using aluminium.

EU - Nonmanufacturing PMI 55.6 in March vs 55.5 in February and 54.9 in March vs 55.5 in February

France - Nonmanufacturing PMI 57.4 in March vs 55.5 in February and 56.3 in March vs 55.5 in February

  • Consumer confidence was 91 in March vs 97 in February

Brazil - Nonmanufacturing PMI 58.1 in March vs 54.7 in February and 56.6 in March vs 53.5 in February

Turkey - CPI rose to 5.4% in March vs 4.8% in February and 61% yoy in March vs 54.4% yoy in February

  • PPI rose to 9.2% in March vs 7.2% in February and 115% yoy in March vs 105% in February
  • Turkey to benefit from Russia’s

Peru - President Castillo imposed curfew in Lima following fuel and fertilizer prices protests.

  • Government might impose a new excess profits tax on miners following moves to impeach the president

Ireland – Russian embassy urges Irish government to persuade fuel companies to deliver oil for heating and hot water to its embassy

  • President Puffy Face may need a Special Operation to supply heating oil to its embassy in Southern Ireland as its normal suppliers refuse to deliver
  • The Russian embassy is Russian territory causing oil companies to refuse to deliver oil into Russian territory.
  • May we suggest moving the oil tank onto Irish soil and paying in old Irish Punts which are available on eBay at £10 for an old Irish note to get round any concerns

Nigeria – Judge sentences atheist to 24 years in prison for making social media posts deemed blasphemous against Islam (Al Jazeera).

Currencies

US$1.0918/eur vs 1.0886/eur yesterday. Yen 123.80/$ vs 124.00/$. SAr 14.655/$ vs 14.668/$. $1.311/gbp vs $1.306/gbp. 0.749/aud vs 0.759/aud. CNY 6.360/$ vs 6.367/$.

  • Australian dollar hits new year high level driven by new orders partly due to coal sales to replace Russian material as Asian utilities shun new contracts with Russia

Commodity News

Precious metals:

Gold US$1,926/oz vs US$1,917/oz yesterday

Gold ETFs 106.0moz vs US$105.9moz yesterday

Platinum US$952/oz vs US$969/oz yesterday

Palladium US$2,231/oz vs US$2,251/oz yesterday

Silver US$24.34/oz vs US$24.24/oz yesterday

Rhodium US$19,300/oz vs US$19,300/oz yesterday

Base metals:

Copper US$ 10,333/t vs US$10,384/t yesterday – Cochilco (Chile) reported production fell 7.5%yoy to 395kt in February due to lower grades and water shortages at mines.

Aluminium US$ 3,434/t vs US$3,453/t yesterday - Q2 Japanese port premiums (against LME cash), reported at US$172/t.

Nickel US$ 33,360/t vs US$33,350/t yesterday

Zinc US$ 4,259/t vs US$4,266/t yesterday - European smelters hit by high gas prices are causing to TCs to rise 45% to ~$230/t.

Lead US$ 2,421/t vs US$2,411/t yesterday

Tin US$ 43,970/t vs US$44,215/t yesterday

Energy:

Oil US$102.3/bbl vs US$107.0/bbl yesterday

Crude oil prices tumbled yesterday after the IEA member countries agreed to release an additional 60mb, on top of the 180mb already announced by the US, to alleviate the current tight market.

U.S. crude stockpiles fell 2.4mb to 412.4mb last week, according to the EIA, with refineries operating at 92.5% of their operable capacity.

European gas prices edged lower on warmer than average weather on the Continent, while US prices remain elevated due to colder weather in the West of the country.

The UK Government released its new energy strategy targeting up to 95% of Britain's electricity to come from low carbon sources by 2030 (from 55% today), with vast increases in nuclear, wind and solar power. The Government has also committed to support domestic production of oil and gas as part of its energy strategy.

Natural Gas US$6.154/mmbtu vs US$6.082/mmbtu yesterday

Uranium UXC US$61.60/lb vs $60.70/lb yesterday

Bulk:

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$161.2/t vs US$162.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$808.7/t vs US$803.3/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$220.0/t vs US$220.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$278.0/t vs US$259.0/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$380.0/t vs US$405.0/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$82,000/t vs US$82,000/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$145,449/t vs US$145,289/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$74,140/t vs US$74,058/t

China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$2,840/t vs US$2,810/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$2,167/t vs US$2,161/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$343/t vs US$340/t

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$825/t vs US$825/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 12.0/lb vs US$12.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 57.25/kg vs US$57.25/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$399/t vs US$398/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$83.9/t vs US$85.0/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$1,250/t vs US$1,250/t

Battery News

Shell and Mitsubishi team up for green hydrogen production

  • Mitsubishi and Shell plan to produce 400,000t of hydrogen annually by 2030 using the companies’ European offshore wind project according to reports from Japan.
  • Mitsubishi, through its Dutch subsidiary Eneco Groep N.V., is looking to invest 10% in a business firm to be financed by Shell and Norwegian energy company Equinor ASA, among others, the sources said.
  • The plans will see the development of offshore wind farms centered in the Netherlands, using the power generated to create hydrogen, with the long-term goal of creating 1mt annually by 2040.

GM and Honda to partner on ‘affordable’ EVs

  • General Motors has partnered with Japanese automaker Honda to co-develop a series of affordable EVs to help make more people go electric.
  • The companies’ announced an expansion of their partnership which will see them develop a new affordable EV based on a new architecture using GM’s Ultium battery technology.
  • This will include a compact crossover, which they hope will enable global production of millions of EVs starting in 2027.
  • The two companies have also committed to working to standardise equipment and processes so as to achieve greater quality, higher throughput, and affordability, as well as discussing future EV battery technology collaboration opportunities in an effort to further drive down the cost of electrification.

UK to increase offshore wind targets

  • Boris Johnson will announce plans today to increase Britain’s offshore wind target capacity to 50GW by 2030 as part of the effort to make 95% of the county’s electricity ‘low-carbon’ by the end of the decade.
  • Britain’s current offshore wind capacity sits at just over 10GW currently and the target had been to reach 40GW by 2030.
  • The strategy document, which is aimed at increasing domestic supplies of energy following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, will also set out plans for more nuclear power plants to meet 25% of electricity demand by 2050.
  • The prime minister has also indicated that he wants to expand Britain’s solar power generation capacity from 14GW at present, but has yet to set a firm target.

Company News

Central Asia Metals PLC (AIM:CAML, OTC:CAMLF) 250p, Mkt Cap £436m – Q1/22 production and operations

  • Central Asia Metals reports Q1 2022 production of 3,024t of copper from its Kounrad dump-leach and SXEW operation in Kazakhstan, and 5,240t of zinc and 6,736t of lead from the Sasa mine in North Macedonia.
  • The company describes the Q1 production as “strong” and is maintaining its previously announced full year production guidance of 12,500-13,500t of copper, 20-22,000t of zinc (in concentrate) and 27-29,000t of lead, also in concentrate.
  • Production at Sasa resulted from the processing of 197,986t of ore at an average head-grade of 3.14% zinc and 3.65% lead (Q1 2021 – 210,413t at 3.23% zinc and 3.57% lead).
  • Recoveries of 84.3% for zinc (Q1 2021 – 84.5%) and 93.3% (Q1 2021 - 93.5%) for lead resulted in the production of a total of 10,519t of zinc concentrate (Q1 2021 – 11,521t) with average grades of 49.8% for zinc (Q1-2021 – 49.8%) and of 9,488t of lead concentrate at an average grade of 70.99% Q1 2021 – 9,730t at 72.1%).
  • The company confirms that “Sasa typically receives from smelters approximately 84% of the value of its zinc in concentrate and approximately 95% of the value of its lead in concentrate” and also that, during the quarter, “Sasa sold 74,795 ounces of payable silver to Osisko Gold Royalties (TSX:OR), in accordance with its streaming agreement”.

Chaarat Gold Holdings Ltd (AIM:CGH) 18.5p, Mkt Cap £127m – FY21 loss recorded on high operating and interest costs despite strong commodity price environment

  • Revenues were $92.4m (2020: $76.0m) driven largely by higher commodity prices and higher third party ore revenues.
  • Respective changes in realised prices included +50% for copper, +35% for zinc, +23% for silver and largely no change for gold (base and precious metals account for ~40%/~60% in total revenues).
  • Production amounted to 63koz GE including 14koz from third party ore (2020: 58.7koz and 5.5koz).
  • AISC (excl TC/RC and based on gold production rather than payable metal sales) climbed to $1,205/oz, up on $1,034/oz, on the back of higher mining costs due to more selective mining in the narrower parts of the underground mine and inflationary pressures.
  • Operating profit came in at $7.8m (2020: $1.9m).
  • EBITDA totalled $13.5m (2020: $9.3m) with Kapan contributing $22.7m (2020: $19.4m).
  • Loss for the year amounted to $3.6m (2020: -$22.4m).
  • Net CFO was $3.3m (2020: $15.9m) constrained by an increase in accounts receivable reflecting the mining of Kapan concentrate sales close to year end.
  • Capex totalled $15.5m (2020: $12.0m) reflecting capital investments at Kapan as well as capitalised exploration and development spending in the Kyrgyz Republic.
  • Net Debt reduced to $39.6m (2020: $77.2m) reflecting a debt for equity conversion of the Labro Term Loan in Feb/21 and a continuing repayment of the Kapan acquisition loan from mine cash flows.
  • 2022 guidance includes production of 56-62koz GE at Kapan including 50-53koz of oen-ore production and 6-9koz from 3rd party ore.
  • The Company flagged inflationary pressures as well as potential supply chain disruptions due to the Russia/Ukraine war.
  • Mike Fraser joined the Company as new CEO and member of the Board earlier in January with identified initiatives following a comprehensive review to be implemented through 2022.
  • Tulkubash project funding is expected to be finalised in H2/22.
  • Metallurgical testwork at Kyzyltash is planned to be completed in Q3/22 that should be used in designing of the optimal processing flowsheet for the refractory underground gold deposit.

Mkango Resources Ltd (AIM:MKA, TSX-V:MKA, OTC:MKNGF)* 23.5p, Mkt Cap £53m – Initial sampling at Nkalonje returns up to 5.92% TREO

  • Mkango provides an update for its exploration programme at the Nkalonje Hill Rare Earths Project, 14 km from Mkango’s Songwe Hill project.
  • The project underlain by an alkali silicate–carbonatite intrusive complex, geologically similar to Songwe Hill and comprising two connected hills underlain by fenite.
  • The fenites on Nkalonje are intruded by carbonatite veins and dykes that are locally enriched in rare earth elements, suggesting potential for a larger mineralised carbonatite body below surface.
  • Geological mapping and geophysics undertaken at Nkalonje Hill confirms the presence of previously mapped nepheline syenite, breccia and carbonatite – supporting the geological interpretation of a ring complex structure, as seen at Songwe, and at other carbonatite vents in Malawi.
  • Mapping to date has identified eight carbonatite dykes reaching 4m in width and traceable at surface up to 90m along strike, all of which could be prospective for rare earths.
  • Assay results for 12 calcite carbonatite and 17 ferroan calcite carbonatite grab samples returned TREO grades of up to 5.92%, with a median value of 2.96% in the ferroan calcite carbonatite.
  • Mkango comments that these results suggest the concentration of rare earths is prevalent in the more evolved carbonatite phases.
  • Based on interpretation of the recent data, the Company has identified two drilling targets at Nkalonje.
  • Target 1 – Drilling will target known mineralisation around the carbonatite dyke, as well as further mineralisation at depth interpreted from IP and NSAMT surveys extending down-dip of the exposed dykes. Further channel sampling at Target 1 is expected in order to trace the grade of the dykes along strike.
  • Target 2 – This target will focus on a surface radiometric anomaly of high thorium, along with an IP anomaly at depth. These geophysical and geomorphological features fit with a conceptual model of a central carbonatite body. ger sampling and trenching programme is planned to ground truth the geophysical anomalies at Target 2

Conclusion: Initial results from Somgwe are very encouraging, with initial sample grades in the ballpark of world-leading rare earth projects. Given the similarities between Nkalonje and Songwe, we expect Mkango to progress this project fairly rapidly given the company’s success 14km away, where the project is firmly in the development stage and a Feasibility Study is nearing completion.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Mkango Resources

Scotgold Resources Limited (AIM:SGZ)* 65.5p, Mkt Cap £39m – Up to £3m loan facility agreement

BUY

  • The Company engaged Fern Wealth to arrange an up to £3m loan with a syndicate of high net worth investors.
  • Fen Wealth is an asset management company based in Zug, Switzerland.
  • Proceeds from the loan will be used to fast track the Company’s Optimisation Initiatives to ramp up production rate at the high grade Cononish Gold Mine to full capacity 23.5kozpa by the end of Q1/23.
  • Main optimisation initiatives include:
  • Installation of a tailings thickener that should help unlock additional processing capacity and achieve a monthly run rate of 4ktpm by the end of Q2/22, equivalent to 16-17.5kozpa.
  • Design, build and commission an ore sorter to be installed between the existing crushing unit and the mill to upgrade the feed into the mill and minimise generation of tailings at the back end of the processing plant.
  • Ore sorter metallurgical testwork to be completed by the end of Q2/22 and the sorter is expected to be operational by the end of Q1/23 allowing to ramp up to 6ktpm and 23.5kozpa, respectively.
  • Improve mining side of operations including definition and grade control drilling.
  • The Company to report on terms of the loan once the facility is finalised.

Conclusion: The Company arranged for an up to £3m loan facility to help it with the Cononish optimisation programme focused on debottlenecking of the processing plant and the mine to progressively ramp up operations from current 3ktpm to 4ktpm by the end of Q2/22 and ultimately reaching 6ktpm (Phase 2) in Q1/23. A fair amount of that will also be used on definition and grade control drilling helping the team with mine planning ahead of the switch to more a cheaper and more productive long hole stoping in Q3/22.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Scotgold Resources

No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Joe Rowbottom – Joe.Rowbottom@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0486

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

Sources of commodity prices

Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver - BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)

Gold ETFs, Steel - Bloomberg

Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt - LME

Oil Brent - ICE

Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore - NYMEX

Thermal Coal - Bloomberg OTC Composite

Coking Coal - SSY

RRE - Steelhome

Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite - Asian Metal

DISCLAIMER

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SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049. The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP. SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II - Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return of less than 15%

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