Although the Spring Statement on Wednesday comes under the grim shadow of war and a hastening cost of living crisis, the chancellor of the exchequer got some good news today - though whether he chooses to make use of it will be purely down to politics.
While official figures this morning showed UK government borrowing rose by more than expected last month, borrowing for the first 10 months of the fiscal year was £25.9bn less than the official Office for Budget Responsibility forecast, giving Rishi Sunak some extra firepower for tomorrow.
The chancellor is under pressure to help out households who face surging energy prices and higher food costs, as well as a controversial rise in national insurance payments.
Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "We expect the chancellor to tread cautiously tomorrow and to announce a limited package of measures, amounting to a net giveaway in 2022/23 of about £13bn or 0.5% of GDP.
"That probably would mean that households still will experience this year the biggest annual decline in their real disposable income since the Second World War."
Sunak and his supporters have been using every excuse in the book in order to try and play down the Treasury's ability to help inflation-hit households, but what they really want is to hold back as much money as possible until the autumn and before the next general election in order to win extra support from voters with short memories.
What's expected in the spring statement?
Alongside the chancellor’s House of Commons speech, the Office for Budget Responsibility will publish its latest forecasts for the economy and public finances.
Admittedly, Sunak's task is not as simple as it might have been, but with some forecasts suggesting he will need to up spending by £12bn to avoid a new financial crisis, it does point to some very necessary loosening of the budgetary purse strings.
Here's some of our previews articles ahead of the event:
- Tough decisions for Chancellor as Spring Statement approaches
- Giveaways on the cards at Chancellor Rishi Sunak's Budget next week
- Cut to fuel duty is 'drop in the ocean', calls for petrol station regulator