SP Angel . Morning View . Friday 18 03 22
Copper and tin prices rise as nickel and gold pull back
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) – Anglo American partners with EDF Renewables to secure 100% renewable energy supply for South Africa operations
Asiamet Resources Ltd (AIM:ARS, OTC:KMGLF) – Appointment of Darryn McClelland as CEO
Ferrexpo PLC (LSE:FXPO) – Ferrexpo delay results with agreement of the FCA due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Rambler Metals and Mining PLC (AIM:RMM, TSX-V:RAB)* – NPV Valuation: 168p/s - Gold streaming agreement
Serabi Gold (AIM:SRB, TSX:SBI)* – Drill results continue to define mineralisation at the Piaui prospect
W Resources PLC (AIM:WRES) – La Parrilla restarts after extended delay due to improvements in structures, safety control systems and LNG supply
Nickel drops limit down for third day, falling 12% and limiting downside to $36,190/t
- Nickel prices on the LME dropped by the maximum allowed for a third day as prices continued to retreat from last weeks 250% jump.
- The reopening was reportedly plagued with trading glitches for a third straight day, with Bloomberg reporting that at least three trades when through at a price below the lower bound set by the exchange.
- The trades outside of the limit will be cancelled, according to an LME spokesperson.
- This morning’s price of $36,915/t is 23% lower than the closing price on the 7th of March and 64% lower than the all-time high hit of $101,365/t hit on the 8th.
- The situation is extremely damaging to the LME as a trading market for consumers, producers, financiers and speculators with the added risk of contracts being disallowed by the exchange.
Dow Jones Industrials +1.23% at 34,481
Nikkei 225 +0.65% at 26,827
HK Hang Seng -0.41% at 21,412
Shanghai Composite +1.12% at 3,251
Economics
US – Weekly unemployment data came in stronger than expected with continuing jobless claims continuing to fall further below pre-pandemic levels.
- Weekly Jobless Claims (000): 214 v 229 (revised from 227) in the previous week and 220 est.
- Continuing Claims (000): 1,419 v 1,490 (revised from 1,494) in the previous week and 1,480 est.
US/China – President Biden and President Xi are set to hold talks later today as the US is concerned China may help Russia to soften the blow from sanctions.
- Many US officials believe Beijing is tacitly backing Kremlin, Bloomberg writes.
Japan – The central bank reiterated its support for a continuing monetary policy easing seeing through intensifying inflationary pressures.
- The BOJ kept asset purchases and interest rates unchanged at -0.1% while downgrading economic outlook on the back of Covid and higher energy prices.
- The decision cemented its outlier status following rate hikes in the US and UK this week, Bloomberg writes.
- “Inflation is around 8% in the U.S. and about 6% in Europe, but in Japan it’s still below 1%... for them it’s natural that they would raise rates, weaken the amount of easing, and move toward normalization… there’s absolutely no need for Japan to raise rates just because others are doing it,” BOJ Governor Kuroda said.
UK – The BOE voted 8-1 to raise rates 25bp to 0.75% as expected amid ongoing build up in inflationary expectations.
- The pound dropped against the US$ on the announcement as the central bank softened its wording on further monetary tightening in the coming months.
- The MPC said further rate hikes “may be appropriate” compared to “likely” used before and added that “there are risks on both sides of that judgement depending on how medium-term prospects for inflation evolve”.
- The central bank sees inflation peaking “around 8%” in Q2, up from 7% in the February estimate.
Russia – S&P credit rating agency lowered Russia’s rating to CC from CCC- highlighting challenges to future US$ denominated 2023 and 2043 bond payments.
- The agency said that sanctions reduced the nation’s available FX reserves and restricted access to the global financial markets.
- Russia has 15 international bonds with a face value of around $40bn outstanding with half of them held by international lenders, Reuters writes.
- After paying $117m earlier in the week Russia is due another $615m over the rest of the month.
- The first principal payment to the amount of $2bn is due April 4.
- Under current sanctions, US investors have until May 25 to receive interest, dividend or maturity payments on debt or equity from Russia’s central bank, its sovereign wealth fund or the finance ministry, after which a separate license would be required to receive related funds.
Joe Biden is due to speak with President Xi today to make clear that ‘China will bear responsibility for any actions it takes to support Russia’s aggression.’
- Russian claims of biological laboratories and chemical weapons facilities are a significant concern and could lead to further escalation in the conflict.
- The Russian president appears determined to reclaim the Ukraine at any cost and is levelling cities as his army inches forwards.
- In 1994 the Russian Federation, the UK and the US reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine in the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances following the commitment of Ukraine to remove all nuclear weapons from its territory.
Peru community agrees to lift protest at MMG’s Las Bambas Copper mine
- A roadblock at Las Bambas has finally been lifted according to the Peruvian Government, allowing MMG to recommence shipping copper to its clients.
- Communities have been protesting against the mine for months and accusing the company f failing to lift their quality of life while the trucks pollute their crops.
- Las Bambas has suffered blockades for around 450 days in total since 2016.
- Las Bambas is one of the top copper producers in Peru, the world’s 2nd largest copper producing country.
- Annual production of the mine when fully operational is around 300-320kt of copper concentrate per annum.
Germany weighs up Norway hydrogen pipeline to avoid Russian energy
- Germany and Norway are considering building a hydrogen pipeline between the two countries to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian energy supplies.
- The countries will soon conduct a feasibility study for the project that will eventually transport hydrogen, produced in Norway, to Germany.
- “Over the coming months and years, it will be extremely important to speed up the development of alternative energy sources for Europe as substitutes for Russian gas and oil and to develop the necessary infrastructure for this,” Germany and Norway said in a joint statement.
- Germany currently gets more than 50% of its gas, half of its coal and around 30% of its oil from Russia.
Currencies
US$1.1075/eur vs 1.1061/eur yesterday. Yen 118.90/$ vs 118.76/$. SAr 14.934/$ vs 14.913/$. $1.315/gbp vs $1.319/gbp. 0.740/aud vs 0.733/aud. CNY 6.364/$ vs 6.348/$.
Commodity News
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,934/oz vs US$1,940/oz yesterday
Gold ETFs 104.0moz vs US$103.9moz yesterday
Platinum US$1,030/oz vs US$1,024/oz yesterday
Palladium US$2,563/oz vs US$2,460/oz yesterday
Silver US$25.31/oz vs US$25.28/oz yesterday
Rhodium US$19,000/oz vs US$19,000/oz yesterday
Base metals:
Copper US$ 10,314/t vs US$10,200/t yesterday
Aluminium US$3,430/t vs US$3,316/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 36,915/t vs US$41,945/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 3,876/t vs US$3,872/t yesterday
Lead US$ 2,290/t vs US$2,273/t yesterday
Tin US$ 42,670/t vs US$41,375/t yesterday
Energy:
Oil US$107.5/bbl vs US$101.8/bbl yesterday
- Oil prices surged as Russian officials cast doubt on the progress of ceasefire talks with Ukraine.
- China is in strategic discussions to price Saudi crude imports in yuan, according to media reports.
- The US natural gas storage report was broadly in line with consensus at 1,440bcf, according to EIA estimates.
- The EIA also reported that US LNG exports set a new record high of 9.7bcf/d in 2021, up 50% y/y, as liquefaction capacity increased with new projects coming online.
Natural Gas US$4.831/mmbtu vs US$4.735/mmbtu yesterday
Uranium UXC US$56.35/lb vs $55.40/lb yesterday
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$148.7/t vs US$143.2/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$774.1/t vs US$774.1/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$187.0/t vs US$187.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$245.0/t vs US$325.0/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$620.0/t vs US$630.7/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$82,000/t vs US$82,000/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$161,065/t vs US$162,253/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$74,247/t vs US$74,432/t
China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$2,790/t vs US$2,740/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$2,287/t vs US$2,283/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$340/t vs US$340/t
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$805/t vs US$805/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 12.4/lb vs US$12.4/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 62.75/kg vs US$62.25/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$397/t vs US$398/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$84.4/t vs US$84.3/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$1,100/t vs US$1,100/t
Battery News
VW – some EV models sold out until 2023
VW AG’s CFO Antlitz revealed that some of VW Group’s BEVs are solt out until 2023, while many other models are experiencing long wait times.
VW Group has seen that EV profitability has increased much faster than originally expected – mostly down to the high demand for EVs.
In 2021, the group sold about 762,400 plug-in electric vehicles (up 81% y-o-y), including 452,900 all-electric (up 95.5% y-o-y).
Supply chain issues, related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has only further increased wait times for certain EV models.
According to experts, there are 17 wire-harness facilities in Ukraine and they are mostly offline right now – it might take at least 2-3 months to start additional production of the wire harnesses in other countries.
Company News
Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) – 3,693p, Mkt cap £50bn - Anglo American partners with EDF Renewables to secure 100% renewable energy supply for South Africa operations
- Anglo American has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with EDF Renewables, to work together towards developing a regional renewable energy ecosystem (RREE) in South Africa.
- The new renewable ecosystem will be designed to meet 100% of Anglo American’s operational electricity requirements in South Africa by 2030.
- Anglo has already secured 100% renewable energy for its South American operations which will see 56% of the company’s global grid supply from renewable sources by 2023.
- The energy ecosystem will draw on South Africa's natural renewable energy potential to develop a network of on-site and off-site solar and wind farms, amongst other opportunities.
- The partnership is expected to bring a host of benefits to South Africa and the region, including:
- Implementing 3-5 GW of renewable electricity (solar and wind) and storage over the next decade, thereby increasing total grid supply resilience.
- Supporting the decarbonisation initiatives of governments across Southern Africa.
- Stimulating the development of new economic sectors, local production and supply chains.
- "We are targeting carbon neutrality across our operations by 2040 and we are making good progress. Today's announcement is a further major step towards addressing our on-site energy requirements - the largest source of our operational emissions,” said Mark Cutifani, Chief Executive at Anglo American.
Conclusion: Mining engineers and their companies have long been interested in reducing emissions through the development of clean and renewable energy and materials technologies giving them a head start on other industries. Mines also provide ideal sites for the implementation and advancement of these technologies. Anglo American and particularly AmPlats are leading the way in electric trucks and hydrogen-powered vehicles making the integration of renewable energy all the easier.
Asiamet Resources Ltd (AIM:ARS, OTC:KMGLF) – 2.2p, mkt cap £40m - Appointment of Darryn McClelland as CEO
- Asiamet Resources have appointed Darryn McClelland as CEO
- McClelland brings senior management experience from operations in Australia, Indonesia, Laos, Vietnam, Eritrea and Ghana.
- He has been involved in the start up and commissioning of copper and polymetallic open pit mines including copper leaching and has spent >7 years operating mines in Indonesia.
- McClelland is currently the Chief Operating Officer for PT Agincourt Resources which runs the Martabe Gold Mine in North Sumatera.
Conclusion: This is a good hire for Asiamet and adds confidence to the future operation of the company
Ferrexpo PLC (LSE:FXPO) – Ferrexpo delay results with agreement of the FCA due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
- Ferrexpo PLC (LSE:FXPO) have delayed the publication of their results following consultation with the FCA.
- The company is the world’s third largest exporter of high-grade iron ore pellets.
- This is probably the most understandable explanation given to delay results we have ever seen.
- We sincerely hope the company’s operations remain under Ukrainian control.
- Our thoughts are with management, staff and their families as well as the people of Ukraine.
Rambler Metals and Mining PLC (AIM:RMM, TSX-V:RAB)* – 29.69p, Mkt cap £47m – Gold streaming agreement
NPV Valuation: 168p/s
- Yesterday, Rambler Metals & Mining reported that it had entered a streaming agreement with Elemental Royalties Inc for gold production from its wholly-owned Ming copper mine in Newfoundland.
- The US$11m up-front payment covers the purchase, by Elemental Royalties, of 50% of gold production up to the delivery of 10,000oz “decreasing to 35% until a further delivery of 5,000 ounces of gold and 25% thereafter for the life of the mine”.
- Elemental will pay Rambler “20% of the market price of gold for each ounce of gold delivered by Rambler” and the company has agreed to deliver a minimum of “1,200 ounces to Elemental in each of the first three years of the Agreement”.
- In January, reporting operating results for 2021, Rambler disclosed that it had produced 1,805oz of saleable gold during 2021.
- The agreement, which is expected to be finalised by 31st March, is “subject to certain conditions including signing of intercreditor agreements, Elemental raising proceeds of at least US$7 million in a financing, and Rambler completing a repurchase of Rambler's current gold stream with Sandstorm Gold Royalties”.
- The repurchasing of the Sandstorm gold streaming agreement will cost “US$7m less payable gold delivered since 1 October 2021 and 1,150 oz of gold to be delivered over the next 18 months”.
- President & CEO, Toby Bradbury, explained that “Over its current life of mine, less than 3% of Ming Mine's revenue is from gold. The sale of an insignificant portion of our future production provides immediate funding to strengthen our balance sheet without any dilution to our shareholders at a time when the Company is about to realise its operating goals”.
- He also clarified that “It also provides first-ranked security to current and future lenders which will enable us to access future capital more easily. The transaction will release the gold delivery obligation of our Nugget Pond gold deposit, which improves its economic value in the future”.
- Earlier this month, Rambler published operating statistics for February which showed daily production rates from the mine rising by 30.5% during February to 1,171 wet metric tonnes (wmt) compared with the average of 897wmt/day achieved in January and said that “The developed state of the underground mine is now yielding the levels of production that will enable the mill to operate at full capacity in March 2022” which we consider an important step in achieving the previously reported doubling of copper output to”7,000 tonnes Cu in 2022 from 3,418 tonnes in 2021”.
Conclusion: The restructuring of its gold-streaming agreements comes at a time when the achievement of its target production rate of 1,350tpd at the Ming mine is imminent and against a background of the company’s guidance of a doubling of copper production, to 7,000t, during 2022. The new agreement, which will involve repurchasing the existing gold-stream with Sandstorm Gold Royalties and a new agreement with Elemental Royalties is expected to facilitate easier access to capital.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Rambler Metals & Mining
Serabi Gold (AIM:SRB, TSX:SBI)* – 50.5p, Mkt Cap £40m – Drill results continue to define mineralisation at the Piaui prospect
- Serabi has released drill results from its Palito Project, where shallow drilling has confirmed continuity of three major parallel mineralised structures and further smaller parallel zones.
- The Piaui Prospect is located within the Palito Mine Lease, 500m south of the mine infrastructure and underground mine development in the Senna and Zonta veins.
- It was identified in 2010 from a ground based IP survey undertaken as follow up to an airborne VTEM survey completed in 2008.
- High grade intercepts include:
- PDD0618 - 0.41m @ 16.89g/t Au from 26.40m, 1.94m @ 11.86g/t Au including 0.70m @ 19.15g/t Au from 35.30m
- PDD0617 - 0.65m @ 14.28g/t Au from 43.1m, 5.90m @ 4.11g/t Au including 1.00m @ 17.56g/t Au from 69.75m
- PDD0616 - 2.00m @ 3.69 including 1.00m @ 6.54g/t au from 12.0m
- PDD0612 - 1.60m @ 2.70g/t Au including 0.50m @ 6.30g/t Au from 113.55m
- Mike Hodgson, CEO of Serabi, commented: “The Piaui prospect is shaping up to be an excellent near mine opportunity for Serabi. This excellent set of drill results supports the strong results generated in 2011 with high grades over significant mineable widths. Piaui is close to the existing mine infrastructure and therefore can be brought into the mine plan in a short period of time and at low capital cost. We look forward to updating the market with further results when we complete a phase of deeper drilling later in the year.”
*An SP Angel analyst has visited the Serabi’s gold mining operations in Brazil
W Resources PLC (AIM:WRES) 2.4p, Mkt Cap £3.5m – La Parrilla restarts after extended delay due to improvements in structures, safety control systems and LNG supply
- W Resources report the restart of the La Parrilla tungsten mine in Spain following an extended maintenance shutdown.
- Management identified further improvements ‘delaying the restart in addition to the Company evaluating options regarding the Liquefied Natural Gas ("LNG") supply, following the 425% price increase announced last month’.
- Management are using part of the first tranche of the $5.5m BlackRock loan facility to secure deliveries of LNG to power the plant and are looking to accelerate plans to have a second electricity power line connected to the mine as well as investigating access to solar energy to reduce its reliance on LNG.
- Tungsten prices have risen to China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$340/t from US$315/t at the beginning of the year
Conclusion: The very substantial increase in LNG prices will raise operating costs and cut margins at a critical time for the company. Plans to connect a second grid power line and the installation of a solar farm will take time. The high price adds to low WO3 recoveries seen in Q4 ’21 at 31% down from 58% in Q3 which combined with lower feed grade and production halved production of contained tungsten metal in the quarter.
SP Angel and Digbee ESG joint initiative for mining companies
https://www.uploadlibrary.com/SPAngel_JohnMeyer/DIGBEE_Press_release.pdf
- SP Angel and Digbee, a specialist ESG group, wish to announce their joint initiative in bringing ESG accreditation to mining companies in their drive to meet institutional investment and rapidly evolving ESG standards and regulatory requirements.
- We are rapidly approaching a point where a company’s ESG profile will not simply be a positive investment factor but will become a precondition to investment by many investment funds.
- The guidance and ratings process developed by Digbee is specifically designed to assist mining companies meet the new expectations and ensure directors meet their ESG compliance objectives.
- The initiative will not only quantify and score the ESG profile of qualifying companies but will also highlight ESG improvements and positive performance as companies develop.
- Importantly, the process will enable investment funds to demonstrate the positive results of their investments to their underlying investors and stakeholders which can, in turn, lead to further funding.
- It is imperative that any ESG Rating is seen to be credible. Digbee’s solution was developed to address this: it is mining specific, right sized and future looking, based on an independent assessment of a submission that is supported by evidence and approved by the company’s board of directors. It will also address investor frustration at a lack of comparable or meaningful data.
- For companies at an earlier stage of their ESG journey, recording improvements over time through the Digbee initiative is likely to prove attractive to investment funds as a demonstration of their ESG commitment permitting institutional investment at an earlier stage.
- The direction of travel is now firmly towards renewable sources of energy and a transition to environmental sensitivity. Historically, regardless of the individual facts, miners have collectively been identified as bad actors in this regard. Digbee engagement and ratings should improve the visibility of the good work being done.
- For example, installing, wind and solar generation to displace oil and gas should not only cut energy costs but also reduce carbon emissions. Sharing this energy with a local community may further reduce emissions, strengthen community engagement and lead to long-term sustainable benefits well beyond the end of the mine life. Similarly, a mine closure, thoughtfully done, can leave a positive community legacy that will stand a company in good stead when it is seeking new mining opportunities. Having a third party ESG specialist incorporate these initiatives into a rating accepted by investors will help secure the credit such initiatives deserve.
Jamie Strauss, Founder & CEO, Digbee Ltd: “We are delighted with this joint initiative with SP Angel, the number one ranked advisor to the AIM Mining sector*. SP Angel has acknowledged the importance of presenting their corporate clients to institutional investors with credible ESG disclosure as an increasing prerequisite to encourage new investment. We look forward to working together to achieve a more sustainable mining industry that is recognised for its positive actions ”
John Meyer, Mining Analyst & Partner at SP Angel “Working with Jamie Strauss and Digbee will help prepare our corporate clients for ESG-orientated investment. Mining, exploration, and development companies contribute much to local communities which combined with the potential benefits of increasingly sustainable operations is worthy of recognition. Quantifying the benefits, improvements and legacies of these operations should act a catalyst to further improvement to the benefit of all stakeholders.
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474
Joe Rowbottom – Joe.Rowbottom@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0486
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
SP Angel
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
Sources of commodity prices
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver - BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel - Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt - LME
Oil Brent - ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore - NYMEX
Thermal Coal - Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal - SSY
RRE - Steelhome
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite - Asian Metal
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